{"id":308180,"date":"2025-11-26T13:24:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T13:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/308180\/"},"modified":"2025-11-26T13:24:10","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T13:24:10","slug":"nfl-week-13-pick-em-can-mahomes-step-it-up-to-lead-chiefs-past-cowboys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/308180\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 13 Pick ‘Em: Can Mahomes step it up to lead Chiefs past Cowboys?"},"content":{"rendered":"

It\u2019s Thanksgiving week in the NFL, and heading into it, the Los Angeles Rams are atop the <\/a>Super Bowl odds<\/a> at +425 at BetMGM.\u00a0<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll see all 32 teams face off in Week 13, with three games on Thanksgiving Day.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The week closes out on the first day of December, with the New England Patriots hosting the New York Giants on Monday night.\u00a0<\/p>\n

See my predictions for these games and the rest of the slate below.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Lions are allowing more than 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, and Packers quarterback Jordan Love has had multiple touchdown passes in eight of 11 games this season.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additionally, the Lions mostly play Cover-1 and Cover-3, and against those, Love has eight touchdowns and two interceptions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Packers +2.5 (-102)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Chiefs’ passing attack has been stale with QB Patrick Mahomes throwing just one touchdown over his past three games.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

I expect that to change, as the Cowboys allow 2.18 passing touchdowns (first) and 252.3 passing yards per game (30th in the NFL).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Chiefs -3 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bengals are likely to have QB Joe Burrow back in the lineup for this game.\u00a0<\/p>\n

He\u2019ll take on a Ravens defence that mostly plays Cover-1 and Cover-3. Against those dating back to last season, Burrow has 18 touchdown passes.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Additionally, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has suffered a new injury in each of his last three games, including one to his knee, another to his ankle and now to his toe, which could limit his impact.\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Bengals +7 (-110)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears\u00a0<\/p>\n

When facing the Eagles, opposing QBs have seen Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-6 on about 76 per cent of their dropbacks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Against those, Bears QB Caleb Williams has been solid, throwing for 1,817 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Bears +7 (-118)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cleveland Browns vs. San Francisco 49ers\u00a0<\/p>\n

In limited action, Browns QB Shedeur Sanders is averaging 3.15 seconds to throw. When their QBs this season take between three and four seconds to throw, the Browns have allowed 54 pressures, which is tied for fifth in the NFL.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

When pressured this season, Sanders has completed 27.8 per cent of his passes for 116 yards, two interceptions and has three turnover-worthy plays.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: 49ers -5.5 (-110)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Jaguars are tied for third in the NFL in pressures with 173.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Titans QB Cam Ward has been pressured on 37.7 per cent of his dropbacks, and when he\u2019s under duress, he\u2019s completed only 41.8 per cent of his passes for 584 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, one touchdown, three interceptions and six turnover-worthy plays.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Jaguars -6.5 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Texans play more Cover-3 than anything else, and Colts QB Daniels Jones has two touchdown passes and three interceptions against that coverage.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019m expecting a tight game due to Jones\u2019 ability against those coverages, coupled with the Texans averaging 25 points per game over their last three, which is seventh in the NFL over that span.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Texans +4.5 (-110)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Saints are inside the top 10 in pressures allowed (161), and when he\u2019s been pressured, Saints QB Tyler Shough has completed 38.2 per cent of his passes and is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Furthermore, I don\u2019t trust the Saints’ offence; they\u2019re averaging 10.8 points per game over their last five and haven\u2019t exceeded 17 points in that stretch.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Dolphins -6 (-110)\u00a0<\/p>\n

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Jets are 30th in the NFL in pressures (114) and haven\u2019t intercepted a pass all season.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Offensively, the Jets are inside the bottom five in total yards per game (283.2) and are taking on a Falcons defence that\u2019s allowed just 190.4 passing yards per game (eighth) this season.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Falcons -2.5 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals\u00a0<\/p>\n

Assuming Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield is cleared to play after suffering a shoulder injury last week, he should feast on this Cardinals defence.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

They play Cover-3 and Cover-4 most of the time, and Mayfield has completed 67.4 per cent of his passes for 1,332 yards, seven touchdowns and one pick against those.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Buccaneers -3 (-105)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Rams are tied for third in pressures with 173 and face a Panthers squad that\u2019s allowed 157 to date, which is tied for 10th.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Panthers QB Bryce Young has completed 49.5 per cent of his passes and has six turnover-worthy plays when pressured.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Rams -10 (-110)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy is in the concussion protocol, and if he can\u2019t play, it\u2019ll be Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie who played college football at New Hampshire and Minnesota, under centre.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

He and the Vikings will have to deal with a Seahawks defence that leads the league in pressures (201) and an offence that\u2019s third in scoring, averaging 29.5 points per game.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Hard pass on Minnesota.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Seahawks -10.5 (-105)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bills are fourth in EPA per pass play at 0.24 and face a Steelers pass defence that allows 258.7 passing yards per game (31st).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bills may have a porous run defence, allowing 148.9 yards per game (30th), but the Steelers average 24.1 rush attempts (26th) and 97.1 rushing yards (27th) per game.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Bills -3.5 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders\u00a0<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not taking the Raiders under any circumstances.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Their QB, Geno Smith, is tied for the league lead in interceptions, and they\u2019ve fired offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and senior offensive assistant Bob Bicknell.\u00a0<\/p>\n

They\u2019re a disaster.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Chargers -9.5 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n

Washington Commanders vs. Denver Broncos\u00a0<\/p>\n

While the Broncos are second in pressures with 181, Commanders QB Marcus Mariota (assuming Jayden Daniels is out again) has actually played relatively well against it.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

He\u2019s completed only 45 per cent of his passes, but the yards per attempt are at nine, and he has three touchdowns and three interceptions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Couple that with the Broncos’ offence averaging just 16.7 points per game over their last three (26th in that stretch), and the Commanders should be able to keep this one close.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Commanders +6.5\u00a0 (-102)\u00a0<\/p>\n

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Patriots escaped the Bengals with a 26-20 win and didn\u2019t cover the spread in that game.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Now, back at home, they\u2019re favoured by 7.5 points, and that hook is making me lean toward the Giants.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Patriots play a mix of coverages, but looking over their top four, Giants QB Jaxson Dart, who should suit up after suffering a concussion a few weeks back, has eight touchdown passes and two interceptions against them.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Conversely, the Giants play mostly Cover-1 and Cover-3, and Patriots QB Drake Maye has five interceptions against those.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

I expect the Patriots to win, but honestly, I could see it ending similarly to the Bengals game.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

PREDICTION: Giants +7.5 (-115)\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It\u2019s Thanksgiving week in the NFL, and heading into it, the Los Angeles Rams are atop the Super…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":308181,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-308180","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=308180"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/308180\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/308181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=308180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=308180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=308180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}