{"id":310681,"date":"2025-11-27T17:45:13","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T17:45:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/310681\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T17:45:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T17:45:13","slug":"ontario-could-avoid-recession-this-year-even-as-trumps-tariffs-take-hold-fiscal-watchdog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/310681\/","title":{"rendered":"Ontario could avoid recession this year, even as Trump’s tariffs take hold: fiscal watchdog"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Text<\/p>\n

Listen to this article<\/p>\n

Estimated 5 minutes<\/p>\n

The audio version of this article is generated by text-to-speech, a technology based on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n

Ontario\u2019s fiscal watchdog says the province could avoid a recession this year, but the findings of his latest report show the trade war with the U.S. is taking a bite out of Ontario\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n

The data is part of the latest update from the province\u2019s Financial Accountability Office (FAO). It highlights Ontario\u2019s economic struggles between April and September in the months immediately after U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff policies were imposed. <\/p>\n

It also delves deeper into the province\u2019s shrinking manufacturing sector, which the FAO says has shed approximately 20,600 jobs over the past two years and has been put under increased pressure because of the trade war.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the point of the report is, we’re in a period of weak economic growth for all the obvious reasons,\u201d Ontario financial accountability officer Jeffrey Novak said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ontario\u2019s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, a wide measure of economic activity, decreased by 0.6 per cent during the second quarter of the year due to a \u201csignificant drop\u201d in exports and \u201csharply lower\u201d business investment, the report notes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"ManOntario’s financial accountability officer, Jeffrey Novak. (Ontario Legislature)Ontario could avoid ‘technical recession’: FAO <\/p>\n

The report contains projections for the third quarter which suggest Ontario may avoid a \u201ctechnical recession,\u201d defined as two consecutive quarters of real GDP declines.\u00a0<\/p>\n

While the report notes the overall economy is little changed, lower than anticipated job losses and gains in retail sales and manufacturing sales could help the numbers.<\/p>\n

But Novak said his office will be watching the data closely as it comes in. The economic uncertainty being felt by many employers is still translating to job losses, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor Ontarians, depending on where you are situated in the job market, the job market is weak,\u201d Novak said.<\/p>\n

Ontario\u2019s unemployment rate sat at 7.8 per cent between April and September after steadily increasing since early 2023 for nine consecutive financial quarters. The province lost approximately 1,900 jobs in the third quarter of this year, after a \u201csignificant 38,000 drop\u201d the the second quarter.<\/p>\n

The report notes youth unemployment in Ontario rose to 16.8 per cent, the highest rate since 2012, excluding the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"AThe Financial Accountability Office of Ontario’s latest report says the province has lost more than 20,000 manufacturing jobs over the past two years. (Laura MacNaughton\/CBC)<\/p>\n

The report also digs into manufacturing jobs losses saying that supply chain disruptions, pandemic-related shutdowns, shipping issues and auto plant retoolings have compounded employer challenges. The total share of manufacturing jobs in Ontario\u2019s employment picture has fallen below 10 per cent for the first time since 1976, the FAO notes.<\/p>\n

Finance minister dismisses report as ‘old news’<\/p>\n

The number of people unemployed in the province for a \u201clong-term\u201d period of more than six months now accounts for more than 28 per cent of those without a job in Ontario.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat’s the highest number we have seen since the 1990s,\u201d Novak said. \u201cThat’s just an indication of the difficulties folks are having in the job market right now. You’d like to see a lower number for long-term unemployed.\u201d<\/p>\n

Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy dismissed the report as \u201cold news\u201d that dates back to earlier in the year. But he did note the report projects Ontario\u2019s economy will grow at a higher rate than the province\u2019s own fiscal estimates.<\/p>\n

The FAO projects Ontario\u2019s real GDP growth will slow to 0.9 per cent for 2025. Ontario\u2019s fall economic statement projected that growth at 0.8 per cent earlier this month.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe’re doing everything we can to support and protect Ontario families, businesses and workers,\u201d Bethlenfalvy said at a news conference Wednesday, responding to the questions about the report.<\/p>\n

NDP Leader Marit Stiles slammed the government\u2019s record on jobs, pointing to the FAO report as evidence the Tories aren\u2019t doing enough to address the impact of tariffs. <\/p>\n

And while the province may not slip into a technical recession, that is \u201ccold comfort\u201d for people struggling to find work, she said.<\/p>\n

Fiscal projection a ‘punch in the gut,’ opposition says<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the reality is, people are having trouble making rent, making mortgage payments. More and more people are having a hard time finding good jobs,\u201d Stiles said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Liberal parliamentary leader John Fraser said the FAO data further underscores that Ontario\u2019s economy is in trouble. He questioned whether the Ford government\u2019s tariff response measures are working.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don’t think they have a real plan,\u201d Fraser said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner called the data a \u201cpunch in the gut\u201d to workers and their families. The province could create jobs by investing in electric vehicle manufacturing and “made-in-Ontario” renewable energy, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you’re going to have an industrial strategy, you need to bring a full plan to the table that actually works,” he said. “And the Ford government failed to do that.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Listen to this article Estimated 5 minutes The audio version of this article is generated by text-to-speech, a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":310682,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-310681","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310681","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=310681"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310681\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/310682"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=310681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=310681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=310681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}