{"id":314178,"date":"2025-11-29T10:30:22","date_gmt":"2025-11-29T10:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/314178\/"},"modified":"2025-11-29T10:30:22","modified_gmt":"2025-11-29T10:30:22","slug":"best-over-under-nfl-player-prop-bets-for-week-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/314178\/","title":{"rendered":"Best Over\/Under NFL Player Prop Bets For Week 13"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we head into the weekend slate, we\u2019ve seen four games already completed between Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday.<\/p>\n

Below, I\u2019ll look at the three best prop bets for the remainder of the slate.<\/p>\n

Week 13 Prediction: Matthew Stafford Under 0.5 Rushing Yards (-215)<\/p>\n

For this prop, there are two ways I want to approach this: Stafford\u2019s historical numbers as a runner and how I think he\u2019ll perform against this Panthers defense.<\/p>\n

This season, Stafford has had 1 rushing yard or more in just three games, and he finished with exactly 1 in two of those.<\/p>\n

Over his career, he\u2019s had 92 of 233 games with fewer than 1 rushing yard.<\/p>\n

Additionally, over the last two seasons, Stafford has recorded just 6 scrambles.<\/p>\n

As for quarterbacks’ rushing performance against the Panthers, they\u2019ve run 53 total times, which is eight in the NFL, but they\u2019re averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, which is the second-lowest rate.<\/p>\n

So, they\u2019ve tried to run, but haven\u2019t had much success.<\/p>\n

That said, this is Stafford we\u2019re talking about \u2014 he doesn\u2019t run hardly ever.<\/p>\n

Pivoting to him as a passer, he\u2019ll face a Panthers defense that primarily plays Cover 3.<\/p>\n

Against that, he\u2019s completed 73.8% of his passes for 1,105 yards, 5 touchdowns, 1 interception, and is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.<\/p>\n

Additionally, the Panthers play zone at the seventh-highest rate, and Stafford is eighth in the NFL in passing yards versus zone with 2,004.<\/p>\n

Finally, the Rams allow the fifth-fewest pressures (128), and the Panthers generate the fourth-fewest pressures (117).<\/p>\n

When kept clean in the pocket, Stafford has completed 76% of his passes for 2,133 yards, 8.1 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s the TLDR? Stafford is older, he never runs the ball, and he\u2019ll play so well against this defense in the passing game that there\u2019s no need to scramble or run.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\"Black\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n

Week 13 Prediction: Bryce Young Over 0.5 INTs (-134)<\/p>\n

Young has thrown 3 interceptions over his last three games, and he has 9 for the season.<\/p>\n

Of those nine, he\u2019s thrown 4 against Cover 3, along with completing 62% of his passes for 792 yards and 2 touchdowns.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s important to note because the Rams play Cover 3 (37%) more than any other coverage.<\/p>\n

Young has thrown more interceptions against Cover 3 than any other coverage.<\/p>\n

The next closest is Cover 1 with 2 interceptions.<\/p>\n

While Cover 3 is what the Rams play most often, the coverage they play after Cover 3 is Cover 1 \u2014 opposing quarterbacks have seen it on 80 dropbacks.<\/p>\n

Not only that, but the Rams are tied for fourth in the NFL in pressures with 173.<\/p>\n

When the Rams have pressured opposing quarterbacks, they\u2019re completing just 49.6% of their passes for 572 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions.<\/p>\n

As for Young himself against pressure, he\u2019s posted a 5.9 yards per attempt average, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.<\/p>\n

That said, he has 6 turnover-worthy plays, indicating he\u2019s had some luck on his side.<\/p>\n

The Rams’ defense is averaging 1.09 interceptions per game and has 8 over their last four games.<\/p>\n

Young will throw an interception in this game.<\/p>\n

Week 13 Prediction: Max Brosmer Over 17.5 Completions (-118)<\/p>\n

For this final prop on the Week 13 Sunday slate, I\u2019m going to take a bit of a risk on an undrafted free agent making his first-ever NFL start.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s right, we\u2019re looking at Brosmer.<\/p>\n

A former New Hampshire product, Brosmer played his final season of college football for Minnesota.<\/p>\n

In that final season, he completed 66% of his passes for 2,801 yards (6.9 yards per attempt), 18 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions.<\/p>\n

His average time to throw was 2.75 seconds.<\/p>\n

However, of his 406 attempts, 191 of them were on passes with a time to throw of 2.5 seconds or fewer.<\/p>\n

On those, he completed 74.9% of his passes and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.<\/p>\n

Brosmer is strictly a pocket passer, and he has extensive college experience with several seasons at New Hampshire and one at Minnesota.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for him, his first start is on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n

While this could be a tough place to play, he could have a decent day passing the ball.<\/p>\n

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.55 attempts (4th) and 23.73 pass completions (5t) per game.<\/p>\n

Looking at the game logs, nine of 11 quarterbacks have completed 18 passes or more against the Seahawks.<\/p>\n

This may be his first start ever, and it may also be on the road, but opposing quarterbacks are averaging 25.6 completions against the Seahawks at home.<\/p>\n

The Seahawks offense is so great that other teams are forced to throw.<\/p>\n

Again, sure, this is an undrafted rookie, but he has a capable pass-catching back in Aaron Jones at his disposal and one of the best wide receivers in football, Justin Jefferson, to deliver passes to.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what I expect.<\/p>\n

Vikings head coach Kevin O\u2019Connell will design a game plan that plays to Brosmer\u2019s strengths: standing back in the pocket and getting rid of the ball quickly, using the short passing game as an extension of the run game.<\/p>\n

The yards per attempt won\u2019t be high, and the final passing yardage total may not be either, but Brosmer will complete 18 passes or more.<\/p>\n

\t\t
\n\t\t\"Novig\t\t<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As we head into the weekend slate, we\u2019ve seen four games already completed between Thanksgiving Day and Black…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":314179,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-314178","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=314178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314178\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/314179"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=314178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=314178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=314178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}