{"id":320867,"date":"2025-12-02T16:37:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T16:37:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/320867\/"},"modified":"2025-12-02T16:37:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T16:37:12","slug":"global-growth-resilient-but-could-be-tested-next-year-oecd-says","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/320867\/","title":{"rendered":"Global growth resilient, but could be tested next year, OECD says"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global growth is holding up better than expected as an artificial intelligence<\/a> investment boom helps offset some of the shock from U.S. tariff<\/a> hikes, the OECD said on Tuesday, nudging up its outlook for some major economies.<\/p>\n

The Paris-based organization warned, however, that global growth was vulnerable to any new outbreak of trade tensions while investor optimism about AI could trigger a stock market correction<\/a> if expectations are not met.<\/p>\n

In its Economic Outlook, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast global growth would slow modestly from 3.2 per cent in 2025 to 2.9 per cent in 2026, leaving its forecasts untouched from its last estimates in September. It predicted a rebound to 3.1 per cent in 2027.<\/p>\n

OECD head Mathias Cormann said the trade shocks triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump\u2019s tariff hikes had so far proved relatively mild, but added their costs were likely to rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe full effects of those higher tariffs since the start of the year will become clearer as firms run down the inventories that they built up,\u201d he told a press conference.<\/p>\n

Everything you need to know about the AI bubble – and how it will pop<\/a><\/p>\n

The U.S. economy is forecast to grow 2 per cent in 2025, revised up from 1.8 per cent in September, before slowing to 1.7 per cent in 2026 \u2013 up from 1.5 per cent predicted in September.<\/p>\n

AI investment, fiscal support and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts are helping offset the drag from tariffs on imported goods, reduced immigration and federal job cuts, the OECD said.<\/p>\n

However, it warned that the Trump administration had put U.S. fiscal policy on an unsustainable trajectory with large budget deficits and rising debt that would require a \u201csignificant adjustment\u201d in the coming years.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s growth is expected to hold steady at 5 per cent in 2025, up from 4.9 per cent in September, before slowing to 4.4 per cent in 2026 \u2013 unchanged from September \u2013 as fiscal support fades and new U.S. tariffs on goods imported from China bite.<\/p>\n

The euro zone\u2019s 2025 growth forecast was revised up to 1.3 per cent from 1.2 per cent, supported by resilient labour markets and increased public spending in Germany. Growth is expected to moderate to 1.2 per cent in 2026 \u2013 it was seen at 1 per cent previously \u2013 as budget tightening in France and Italy weighs on the outlook.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s economy is projected to grow 1.3 per cent in 2025, up from 1.1 per cent, and buoyed by strong corporate earnings and investment, before slowing to 0.9 per cent in 2026.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing faltered in Europe, Asia in November, PMI data show<\/a><\/p>\n

Global trade growth is expected to moderate from 4.2 per cent in 2025 to 2.3 per cent in 2026 as the full effects of tariffs weigh on investment and consumption. Elevated trade policy uncertainty limits prospects for a recovery.<\/p>\n

Inflation is projected to gradually return to central bank targets by mid-2027 in most major economies. In the U.S., inflation is expected to peak in mid-2026 due to tariff pass-through before easing. In China and some emerging markets, inflation is projected to rise modestly as excess production capacity declines.<\/p>\n

Most major central banks are expected to maintain or lower borrowing costs over the coming year as inflation pressures ease. The Federal Reserve is projected to cut rates slightly by the end of 2026, barring inflation surprises from tariffs. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Global growth is holding up better than expected as an artificial intelligence investment boom helps offset some of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":320868,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-320867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=320867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/320867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/320868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=320867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=320867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=320867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}