Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
While Desjardins Securities analyst Chris Li points out Loblaw Cos. Ltd.\u2019s (L-T<\/a>) $800-million sale of PC Financial<\/a> to EQB Inc. (EQB-T<\/a>) is not material to its overall scale, he thinks the move will lead to notable benefits from the simplification of its operational structure.<\/p>\n Believing \u201cthis is yet another way Loblaw is creating value for shareholders,\u201d he upgraded its shares to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201chold\u201d previously.<\/p>\n \u201cAgainst a backdrop of ongoing macro uncertainties, we believe L\u2019s premium valuation is supported by its consistent execution, high earnings visibility (8\u2013 10-per-cent EPS growth) and attractive asset mix,\u201c said Mr. Li in a client note. Tailwinds from genericization of GLP-1 drugs, distribution centre efficiencies, supply chain as a service, T&T etc also make the story appealing.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst feels the sale, announced after the bell on Wednesday, allows Loblaw to eliminate financial services from its portfolio, improving segment reporting, investing messaging and allowing it to focus on retail with \u201ca clearer focus on food and pharmacy performance while retaining visible exposure to the banking partnership through EQB disclosures.\u201d He projects the divestiture to be earnings accretive in the first full year post transaction.\u201cAgainst a backdrop of ongoing macro uncertainties, we expect defence to outperform in the near term,\u201d he added. \u201cWe believe L\u2019s premium valuation (23 times forward P\/E vs 19 times\/15 times for Metro\/Empire) is supported by its consistent execution, high earnings visibility (8\u201310-per-cent EPS growth) and attractive asset mix.\u201c<\/p>\n \u201cFunds flow out of defence is a key risk. But as discussed above, we believe there is valuation support. Another risk is slowing food SSSG due to increasing competition. While promo intensity is higher than last year, it has remained stable sequentially. Importantly, we expect L to lead the industry in total revenue growth, driven by new store openings, which is key to market share gains and achieving its 8\u201310-per-cent EPS growth target.”<\/p>\n Mr. Li raised his target for Loblaw shares to $67 from $62. The average target on the Street is $63.79, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n Following Wednesday\u2019s release of better-than-anticipated fourth-quarter results<\/a> that deemed \u201cstrong,\u201d TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca upgraded Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T<\/a>) to a \u201cbuy\u201d recommendation from \u201chold\u201d in response to a period of underperformance versus its peers.<\/p>\n \u201cIn 2025, RY has been the worst performing stock among the Big 6 and the stock now trades at a modest 3-per-cent premium to group,\u201d he said. \u201cIn upgrading the stock, we are setting our target P\/E at 7-per-cent premium to group. When RY is functioning at a materially higher level, the premium can reach 10 per cent or more. The 17-per-cent-plus ROE grows BV faster and provides greater flexibility for organic\/acquisitive growth and buybacks. Finally, our estimates are also higher than consensus which we believe also supports our upgrade. \u201d<\/p>\n Shares of RBC closed 1.1 per cent on Wednesday after it posted a surge in fourth-quarter earnings on a boost in capital markets and wealth management activity as the lender raised its profitability target.<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s largest lender saw profit jumped 29 per cent year-over-year to $5.4-billion, or $3.76 per share, in the three months ended Oct. 31. It also raised its target on return on equity \u2013 a metric that measures profitability \u2013 to 17 per cent or more after surpassing the 16-per-cent goal the bank set at its investor day in March.<\/p>\n Adjusted to exclude certain items, the bank said it earned $3.85 per share, beating Mr. Mendonca\u2019s $3.61 estimate and the $3.55 per share analysts expected. The bank raised its quarterly dividend by 10 cents to $1.64 per share.<\/p>\n \u201cBuoyant capital markets activity (trading) supported top line growth and operating leverage was exceptional,\u201d said Mr. Mendonca. \u201cThe significant EPS beat was only incidental relative to the 17-per-cent-plus ROE guidance, stable credit outlook, capital generation, and buyback message. RY should benefit from HSBC-synergies, AI-related savings, deposit mix, and better loan growth.\u201d<\/p>\n With increases to his earnings expectations through fiscal 2027, Mr. Mendonca hiked his target for RBC shares to $246 from $215. The average is $228.46.<\/p>\n \u201cOver the past 5-10 years, Royal has traded at a 6-11-per-cent premium to the group. We expect expense actions, the HSBC deal, and business mix (large, dominant positions in several business lines) and NIM advantages to support superior PTPP growth and higher relative ROE, and ultimately support RY\u2019s premium valuation. Effective with RY\u2019s Q4\/25 results, we upgrade the stock,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, other analysts making target changes include: <\/p>\n * Scotia\u2019s Mike Rizvanovic to $231 from $218 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cFollowing another very strong quarter for RY with an outsized EPS beat, we are moving our estimates up through F2027 to reflect a higher run-rate earnings trajectory for the Capital Markets and Wealth Management businesses where guidance remained constructive. The muted upside to RY\u2019s share price [Wednesday] does not reflect the bank\u2019s ability to further move the needle on its earnings power coming out of the quarter, in our view, which we believe makes the revised ROE guidance of 17 per cent plus very achievable, even in an environment where market-sensitive revenue moderates modestly. We see solid growth upside ahead for RY in the high single-digit range through F2027, and we see a decent entry point on the bank\u2019s relative PE multiple, which currently sits at only an 8-per-cent premium vs. peers on F2027 consensus estimates, below its 11% historical average,\u201d said Mr. Rizvanovic.<\/p>\n * Raymond James\u2019 Stephen Boland to $239 from $229 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating<\/p>\n \u201c4Q25 was a good illustration of the factors underpinning our RBC investment thesis: a defensive business mix supporting lower earnings volatility, unmatched scale across all aspects of Canadian banking, premium ROE generation, and a higher mix of fee-based revenue sources that drive outperformance across the credit cycle. Ultimately, we expect these factors will continue to drive outsized EPS growth vs. peers longer-term and provide an anchor to RBC\u2019s premium valuation. We adjust our FY2026 estimates for higher fee-based revenues, along with higher share buybacks,\u201d said Mr. Boland.<\/p>\n * Desjardins Securities\u2019 Doug Young to $230 from $218 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cIn a nutshell, it was a good quarter. And the increase in management\u2019s medium-term ROE target to 17-per-cent-plus (from 16-per-cent-plus), while not a big surprise, was a nice early present. There was a lot of info provided, but we\u2019ll leave it at that for our quick takeaway. We increased our cash EPS estimates and target price,\u201d said Mr. Young.<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n In a report titled Compounder 20 Years @ 18% On Sale, Raymond James analyst Steven Li upgraded Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q<\/a>, DSG-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cmarket perform\u201d following the post-market release of its third-quarter results on Wednesday.<\/p>\n \u201cSmall upside in 3Q, but with Services organic growth rebounding to 7 per cent at cc (overall organic still anemic at 2 per cent on difficult hardware and PS compares),\u201d he explained. \u201cThis is despite transactional revenues still struggling (tied to economic activity). We think this bodes well for when and as freight markets recover (e.g. Black Friday Cyber Monday had good numbers). In the meantime, A-EBITDA margins reached new highs 46 per cent with 86 per cent CFO conversion and DSGX shares are trading close to the bottom of their 10-year EBITDA multiple range. No change to our target price but we are moving this compounder to an Outperform.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Li maintained a US$118 target, exceeding the US$115.80 average.<\/p>\n Analysts making target revisions include:<\/p>\n * Scotia\u2019s Kevin Krishnaratne to US$115 from US$127 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cOrganic services growth ex-FX accelerating to 7 per cent exceeded our expectations and the 4-per-cent trend seen in 1H\/26. We were encouraged to see that volatility in global supply chains (tariffs, regulatory shifts) is translating directly into demand for DSGX\u2019s compliance and intelligence solutions alongside reasonable strength within GLN. Following the quarter, we maintain our Sector Outperform rating though lower our target to $115 (prior $127), now based on 25 times EV\/EBITDA on fiscal 2027 estimates (previously was 27 times) following multiple compression across the Logistics & Supply Chain Software space (closest peers WTC and MANH trade at 26.6 times and 25.8 times calendar 2026 estimated EBITDA, respectively). In our view, DSGX remains one of the best-in-class SaaS firms in our coverage leveraged to Logistics\/SCM tailwinds, now trading at more than 18.0 times CY26 EBITDA, with our view of strong support at these levels further helped by the introduction of a new NCIB program,\u201d said Mr. Krishnaratne.<\/p>\n * BMO\u2019s Thanos Moschopoulos to US$95 from US$113 with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating. <\/p>\n * Wolfe Research\u2019s Scott H. Group to US$112 from US$121 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. <\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar expects Dollarama Inc. (DOL-T<\/a>) to display \u201crobust\u201d earnings per share growth when it reports its third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on Dec. 11, seeing the discount retailer\u2019s international growth vectors, particularly in Latin America, \u201cprogressing.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe model solid Q3\/F26 same-store sales growth, reflecting, among other factors, a benefit from a calendar shift (Q3\/F25 was negatively impacted by a Halloween shift to Q4 last year), good Statistics Canada retail spending data (until September 2025) and our checks suggesting sssg trends remain resilient,\u201c he said in a client report. \u201dOur expectation for EBITDA margin contraction largely reflects acquisition contribution (Australia is lower margin). NBCM models Australia EBITDA contribution of $27-million (13.7-per-cent EBITDA margin vs. 31.1 per cent for Canada) in Q3\/F26. <\/p>\n \u201cThe Mexico expansion is progressing; our review indicates there are currently at least seven Dollarcity stores in Mexico and that reception to date has been favourable. Excluding Mexico, media reports suggest that DC now has 91 stores in Peru (vs. 84 in Q2\/F26) and a target of 100. In Columbia, DC reached 400 stores in October 2025. DOL\u2019s social media indicates that DC opened its 700th store as of early November 2025.”<\/p>\n Mr. Shreedhar is currently forecasting earnings per share for the quarter of $1.11, up from 98 cents during the same period in fiscal 2025 and a penny above the consensus projection on the Street. He attributes that 13-per-cent year-over-year to positive same-store sales growth (an estimate of 4.5 per cent versus 3.3 per cent last year) as well as net new store openings over the past 12 months of 80 with square footage growth of 5.0 per cent (excluding acquisitions), Dollarcity contribution, and share repurchases over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n \u201cRecall that Dollarcity opened its first store in Mexico (Dollarcity Avila Camacho) in late June 2025, and has subsequently added additional stores (our review of Google Maps data suggest there are at least seven Dollarcity stores in Mexico currently),\u201d the analyst said. \u201cWe believe Mexico is moving at a similar pace to the initial Peruvian expansion (3 quarters to build out first nine stores; Q2\/F22 to Q4\/F22). We believe that the reception to date has been favourable, albeit reviews are limited (NBCM analyzed more than 150 reviews). We model earnings drain of $4 million due to Dollarcity Mexico in Q3\/F26; we model positive earnings contribution from Q1\/F27 onwards.<\/p>\n \u201dExcluding Mexico, we model earnings contribution of $42 million in Q3\/F26. We believe Dollarcity is making progress on its Latin America ex-Mexico expansion. As of Q2\/F26, Dollarcity operated 84 stores in Peru. Media reports suggest that Dollarcity Peru now has 91 stores (partway into October 2025) versus a target of 100 stores. Dollarcity\u2019s social media indicates that Columbia reached 400 stores partway into October 2025.”<\/p>\n Reaffirming his investment thesis for the Montreal-based company and his \u201coutperform\u201d recommendation for its shares, Mr. Shreedhar raised his target to $214 from $203. The average is $217.79.<\/p>\n \u201cWe hold a positive view on DOL\u2019s shares reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n TD Cowen analyst Michael Van Aelst thinks Saputo Inc.\u2019s (SAP-T<\/a>) current valuation does not properly reflect its growth outlook, seeing tailwinds continuing to mount for the Montreal-based diary giant.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter several disruptive years (COVID, laboir shortages, GSP ramp-up) improving execution is now evident,\u201d he said. \u201cCapacity expansion and better order fill rates (back to traditional high standards) are driving vol growth and enabling price discipline. Mix is being optimized and SAP is making the tough decisions to control costs (plant rationalization, SG&A reduction, structural simplification) to offset inflationary pressures (e.g., labor) and greater brand support (ad & promos). <\/p>\n \u201cWe see this driving 21-per-cent EBITDA growth in H2\/F26 and 11 per cent\/7 per cent in F27\/F28. Valuation (now 9.6 times our calendar 2026 estimated EBITDA) has moved up materially from its 7.4 times Jan 2025 low, but is still below its 11.2 times 10-year avg and the peer avg of 11.1 times.\u201d<\/p>\n In a client report released late Wednesday, Mr. Van Aelst named Saputo to TD\u2019s \u201cBest Ideas 2026\u2033 list, emphasizing it now trades at a \u201cmeaningful\u201d discount to many of its Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry peers despite a \u201csuperior\u201d earnings outlook. <\/p>\n \u201cValuation sits at 9.6 times our calendar 2026 EBITDA estimate, below the 10-year average of 11.2 times, despite a balance sheet that has meaningfully strengthened (leverage less than 1.9 times) and our belief that EBITDA can grow 17 per cent\/11 per cent in F26\/F27 and FCF yields reach 7 per cent\/8 per cent,\u201d he said. \u201cManagement is back to executing well on the controllables, meaning recent challenges have not been operational; they are either non-recurring, tied to transient dairy commodity market or macroeconomic pressures. These headwinds are easing and tailwinds are starting to blow: a more favorable U.S. milk pricing formula was adopted in June; Argentina milk supply is recovering and hyperinflation headwinds diminishing; Europe\u2019s dairy ingredient operations are being simplified to lower costs; brand strengthening initiatives are increasingly contributing in all geographies; and large capital projects (optimization and capacity expansion initiatives) of past years are now delivering returns.\u201d<\/p>\n That prompted Mr. Van Aelst to raise his target for Saputo shares to a Street high of $49 from $44, reiterating a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $39.80.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? Most headwinds of past years, plus the sizable GSP investments, are now behind it, and better growth lies ahead,\u201d he said. \u201cCatalysts & Milestones To Watch: Q3\/F26 results should provide a positive catalyst, as 1) the recovery in Argentina profits should lead to 70-per-cent year-over-year increase in International EBITDA, 2) Canada EBITDA should rise 9 per cent and reach margins not seen since F13, and 3) SAP should confirm the last U.S. plant closure in Dec, resulting in the full realization of remaining GSP returns next year. \u201d<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n Seeing it \u201cturning the corner,\u201d TD Cowen analyst Wayne Lam named Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T) his \u201cBest Idea for 2026\u2033 based on \u201coperational momentum via ongoing ramp-ups at Greenstone\/Valentine and near-term catalysts via accelerated deleveraging and potential divestment of the Brazil portfolio.\u201d<\/p>\n He now sees the Vancouver-based miner \u201cincreasingly becoming a core holding for investors given the robust production profile in Canada.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cOur Buy rating on EQX is based on significant re-rating potential centred around the ramp up of two cornerstone Canadian assets at Greenstone and Valentine,\u201d said Mr. Lam. \u201cWe anticipate robust FCF being generated with near term catalysts including accelerated deleveraging and a potential sale of the Brazil portfolio. We view EQX as a go-to name for investors given increasing production profile and weighting in Canada, further supported by advancement of the Castle Mountain Phase 2 project in California via the US FAST-41 process. <\/p>\n \u201cWhat Is Underappreciated Or Misunderstood? We estimate EQX shares trading at a 15-per-cent discount on spot NAV vs Intermediate peers, which in our view is unwarranted and based on investor caution around execution on the ramp ups at the two flagship Canadian assets. Despite our modeled conservatism on the pace of ramp ups at Greenstone (TD Cowen estimates 285 Koz in 2026) and Valentine (170 Koz), we estimate robust spot FCF of $1.5-billion over the coming year. In our view, stronger metals prices have provided a significantly greater buffer and added flexibility to support the accelerated deleveraging strategy, which we anticipate could lead to a substantial re-rating as de-risking milestones are achieved and the two mines advance towards design capacity.\u201d<\/p>\n With his \u201cbuy\u201d rating for Equinox, Mr. Lam raised his target to $22 from $20, exceeding the $20.19 average on the Street.<\/p>\n \u201cWe view multiple catalysts in the year ahead including (1) accelerated balance sheet deleveraging, (2) potential sale of the Brazilian assets, and (3) continued ramp up of Greenstone\/Valentine and advancement of permitting at Castle Mountain,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n Displaying a \u201ca healthy dose of growth,\u201d Extendicare Inc.\u2019s (EXE-T<\/a>) \u201cthesis [is] playing out at an expedited pace,” said National Bank Financial analyst Giuliano Thornhill.<\/p>\n Resuming coverage of the Markham, Ont-based long-term care provider following its $584-million acquisition of CBI Home Health LP and its subsidiaries from OMERS Private Equity and corresponding public offering for gross proceeds $200-million gross proceeds, the analyst thinks the moves increase liquidity and \u201cfirmly\u201d make it a candidate for index inclusion with the company\u2019s Home Health Care business vastly exceeding expectations.<\/p>\n \u201cStructural drivers have surged EXE\u2019s HHC volumes (up 12 per cent year-over-year ADV [average daily volume] growth) leading to strong margin performance,\u201c said Mr. Thornhill. \u201dHigh labour availability is necessitated to retain this double-digit NOI growth profile which we view as likely and point to Ontario\u2019s 7.6 per cent unemployment rate as well as supportive\u00a0policy\u00a0announcements. Proving out margin sustainability upon entering a competitive labour market would drive further re-rating.<\/p>\n \u201cAcquiring CBI leads to coast-to-coast coverage of regulated HHC services, lowering its dependence on a single labour market with non-ON HHC revenue increasing to 18 per cent. It also increases its service offering (17 per cent relates to SCS), and potential for future acquisition opportunities, leading to our revised multiple of 8.25 times. Our assumed multiple is below U.S. HHC peers (9-10 times EBITDA), as these peers\u2019 funding risk is offset by a higher organic growth rate, scale and larger M&A runway.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst raised his 2027 adjusted funds from operations forecast by 19 per cent after ” incorporating synergies realizable in two years, a mid-Q1 close, no seasonality for CBI and other adjustments.” <\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the achievement of IG status will result in a portion of term debt being placed via an unsecured issuance in time. EXE\u2019s revolver could then be paid down on the sale of to-be-initiated Class C projects and from retained cash flows,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n Reiterating his \u201coutperform\u201d rating for Extendicare shares, Mr. Thornhill raised his target by $3 to $24.50. The average is $21.<\/p>\n \u201cOur target is set at an 11-per-cent premium to our NAV (was 6 per cent) and equates to approximately 15 times 2027 estimated AFFO\/sh (was 15 times),\u201d he explained. \u201cOur multiple incorporates EXE\u2019s demographic\/structurally driven growth, low capex intensity and a modest M&A premium, while accounting for its operational risk\/diversification.\u201d<\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n Seeing it \u201cstrategically positioned to benefit from the movement to diversify supply of critical minerals,\u201d Desjardins Securities analyst Amanda Lewis initiated coverage of Falcon Energy Materials plc (FLCN-X<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cFalcon is developing a plant in Morocco to become a top-quality global supplier of natural coated spherical purified graphite (CSPG),\u201d she said in a client report. \u201cFalcon\u2019s strategy demonstrates strong margins underscored by demand growth from the EV and ESS industries, and benefits from geopolitical tailwinds from the movement to diversify critical mineral supply chains, supporting our Buy rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWith more than 95 per cent of CSPG currently manufactured in China, Falcon is poised to benefit from the push to diversify supply chains geographically by building its plant in Morocco. Morocco offers a compelling location due to its competitive labour costs and is ranked 18\/82 (highest of African countries) for investment attractiveness in the Fraser Institute\u2019s survey of mining companies. The country maintains free trade agreements with both the US and the EU\u2014two of the largest EV markets globally.\u201c<\/p>\n Ms. Lewis sees the Abu Dhabi-based company derisked by both its expert partners and pilot plant, relying heavily on \u201cleading Chinese technology firms and Tier One Moroccan partners.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFalcon is taking a global approach to its strategy by entering partnerships with Chinese experts along the supply chain to derisk its project,\u201d she said. \u201cFalcon has partnered with Hensen for plant development and Shanshan for product sales, which we expect should lead to peer-leading costs and relatively smooth commissioning. In 2024, Hensen built a natural CSPG plant in China, and Falcon is developing its plant based on the proven design and procurement of the Hensen plant. Further, prior to constructing its full-scale plant, Falcon is completing a pilot plant to qualify its product with potential customers and to secure offtake agreements. <\/p>\n \u201cStrong business fundamentals at attractive valuation. With Falcon\u2019s focus on refinement over mining, we expect it to benefit from lower capex and higher operating margins resulting in annual EBITDA of $179-million and a gross profit margin of 64 per cent once it is operating.\u201d<\/p>\n Ms. Lewis, currently the lone analyst covering the stock, set a $1.50 target price, resulting in a 124-per-cent potential return. <\/p>\n =====<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * Following Monday\u2019s announcement of a distribution reduction<\/a> and seeing \u201climited downside but upside may take time,\u201d Scotia\u2019s Mario Saric reduced his target for units of Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T<\/a>) to $15.75 from $18 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $15.71.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite the 13-per-cent decline, our revised target price is 18 per cent above consensus, but our NTM [next 12-month] total return of 23 per cent is approximately 3 per cent above our coverage average,\u201d said Mr. Saric. \u201cWe\u2019re updating our model post Monday\u2019s 60-per-cent distribution cut. Our model adjustments reflect: a) lower interest expense on $150-million per year of retained cash (1-2-per-cent FFOPU boost), b) a more conservative capitalized interest forecast (-3.5-per-cent 27E FFOPU impact) c) a slower occupancy build (-2-per-cent impact), and d) a lower target multiple (-1.0x).<\/p>\n \u201cAP is up 2 per cent post official announced cut (still down 26 per cent post Q3 results when a cut was publicly contemplated), likely confirming a short-term trough unit price (incl. expected removal from Dividend Aristocrats Index). While we cited disappointment with the Distribution cut PR content, an important obstacle to building AP positions has arguably been removed (or reason to sell), with occupancy gains back in the spotlight re: a key unit price driver, which may take a bit of time and needs a helping hand from the 2026 economy, in our view (i.e., accelerating Real GDP growth = catalyst for AP).\u201d<\/p>\n * In response to the late Wednesday announcement of a definitive agreement to acquire the remaining 45 per cent of Canfor Pulp (CFX-T<\/a>) currently held by minority shareholders, Raymond James\u2019 Daryl Swetlishoff cut his Canfor Corp. (CFP-T<\/a>) target to $15 from $17 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $15.29.<\/p>\n \u201cThe offer presents shareholders with the option of taking $0.50\/sh in cash or 0.0425 CFP shares per CFX share – representing a 25-per-cent premium to the December 2nd close and a 38-per-cent premium to the 10-day VWAP [volume-weighted average price],\u201c said Mr. Swetlishoff. \u201dWhile we do not view the transaction as the best option from a financial perspective, we note it is likely the best of bad options, as it avoids potential environmental-liability challenges, minimizes risks to social-license considerations in B.C. and mitigates job losses in rural communities. To be clear, based on current pulp fundamentals we expect the deal to be dilutive, and we have trimmed our target by $2\/sh to $15\/sh while maintaining our Outperform rating. That said, assuming mid-cycle pulp earnings, we estimate the deal to be modestly accretive (4-5 per cent), and note that the industry is likely facing more balanced fiber supply conditions following a swath of pulp closures over the past 3 years.”<\/p>\n * Viewing Wednesday\u2019s release of its 2026 guidance as \u201cconstructive,\u201d Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris MacCulloch raised his Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX-T<\/a>) target to $9.50 from $8.75 with a \u201chold\u201d rating, while ATB Capital Markets\u2019 Amir Arif bumped his target to $11 from $8.75 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $9.01.<\/p>\n \u201cThe disciplined capital program maintains focus on exploration of new play concepts and increased waterflood implementation. In our view, this strategy aligns with investor expectations while also preserving the company\u2019s strong balance sheet to direct excess capital to share buybacks rather than an increased base dividend,\u201d said Mr. MacCulloch. <\/p>\n * Several analysts raised their targets for shares of National Bank of Canada (NA-T<\/a>) in in reaction to Wednesday morning\u2019s release of fourth-quarter results that largely exceeded expectations. Those making changes include: Scotia\u2019s Mike Rizvanovic to $184 from $166 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating, Raymond James\u2019 Stephen Boland to $173 from $168 with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Doug Young to $175 from $167 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and TD Cowen\u2019s Mario Mendonca to $181 from $161 with a \u201chold\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe view NA\u2019s Q4 results as very strong overall and remain positive on the bank\u2019s medium-term growth outlook, which in our view improved coming out of the quarter with long-awaited granularity around CWB revenue synergies, CET 1 capital release post-AIRB transition of CWB\u2019s loan book, and the prospect of a more aggressive share buyback program if M&A tuck-ins are not available. All of this gives management continued confidence that the bank can hit a 17-per-cent ROE in F2027. In spite of that positive backdrop, NA\u2019s shares sold off modestly on earnings day as investors appeared to focus more on a slightly elevated PCL ratio coming out of the CWB portfolio, despite what we believe is very manageable exposure. Our EPS estimates move up through F2027 and our PT increases as we continue to view NA as a very compelling growth story among the peer group over the next couple of years,\u201d said Mr. Rizvanovic.<\/p>\n * Ahead of the Dec. 9 release of its third-quarter results, RBC\u2019s Ryland Conrad cut his North West Co. Inc. (NWC-T<\/a>) target to $58 from $60 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating after reductions to his estimates to reflect the impact of the compensation from the $23-billion First Nations Child and Family Services Program settlement now being distributed over a longer time frame. The average on the Street is $58.33.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have revised our forecast mainly to factor in: (i) lower revenue growth assumptions through 2027 with FNCFS settlement compensation being disbursed over a longer time horizon; and (ii) modestly lower margin assumptions through 2027 reflecting a reduced benefit from higher sell-through rates. Our forecast continues to factor in incremental revenues of $500-million-plus from settlement compensation, implying a 10-per-cent capture rate on the estimated opportunity for NWC,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n * Naming Peyto Exploration and Development Corp. (PEY-T<\/a>) to TD\u2019s \u201cBest Ideas 2026\u201d list, analyst Aaron Bilkoski raised his target for its shares to $25 from $23, exceeding the $22.67 average, with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWCSB natural gas prices should improve through late-2026+,\u201d he said. \u201cPEY provides a strong combination of limited near-term downside risk to cash flow and among the highest medium-term WCSB exposure. We expect PEY to continue to achieve the highest cash margins among peers and, with significant spare processing capacity, this is truly a lower-risk, gas manufacturing machine that trades at an attractive FCF-yield.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAlthough investors typically view this is as a well-hedged, dividend (6-per-cent yield) vehicle, we believe this understates Peyto\u2019s competitive position as one of Canada\u2019s best natural gas producers. If investors look beyond the hedge-supported CF and dividend yield, they\u2019ll find that Peyto leads the Canadian gas-weighted peers on an array of key performance indicators. Despite the positive attributes, Peyto remains one of the most attractively valued Canadian gas-focused E&Ps on the basis of FCF yield (even before the benefit of hedges).\u201d <\/p>\n * In a client report titled Cleared for take-off: differentiated AI-driven consumer lender unlocking new tech-led growth vectors, Stifel\u2019s Suthan Sukumar initiated coverage of Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $38 target. The average is $37.29.<\/p>\n \u201cPropel is a disruptive fintech consumer lender targeting a large, underserved borrower market across the U.S., U.K. and Canada,\u201d he said. \u201cA highly focused go-to-market strategy and proprietary AI-driven underwriting have driven steady market share gains with robust credit performance, fueling 8x revenue and 6x EPS growth over the past five years. We believe Propel can sustain its trajectory of revenue\/earnings growth, ahead of peers, supported by (1) a proven playbook for navigating macro cycles and managing credit quality while extending share gains and (2) a differentiated tech platform and bank-partner distribution to capture new tech-enabled lending opportunities and accelerate scale with recurring, more profitable SaaS-like revenues without credit risk. Propel\u2019s balance sheet strength enables further upside optionality for M&A, alongside share buybacks and continued dividend increases. With shares near 52-week lows, we believe macro fears are overdone. We see an attractive entry point.\u201d<\/p>\n * In response to the release of a \u201csound and resilient\u201d 2026 budget and guidance, National Bank\u2019s Dan Payne increased his target for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE-T<\/a>) by $1 to $9 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating (unchanged). Elsewhere, other changes include: Raymond James\u2019 Luke Davis to $9 from $7 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris MacCulloch to $8.75 from $8.50 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, RBC\u2019s Michael Harvey to $9 from $8 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and ATB Capital Markets\u2019 Patrick O\u2019Rourke to $9 from $7.25 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $7.92.<\/p>\n \u201cIts annual budget reflects the strength of outcome of investment & execution across its portfolio, and notably the impact of waterflood in the Clearwater, which is compounding returns faster than previously suggested to the benefit of accelerated returns to shareholders; TVE is poised for a 19-per-cent return profile (vs. peers 8 per cent), on a leverage of 0.3x (vs. peers 0.7 times), while trading at a 2026 estimated EV\/DACF [enterprise value to debt-adjusted cash flow] of 4.8 times (vs. peers 3.0 times),\u201d said Mr. Payne. <\/p>\n * With Telus Corp.\u2019s (T-T<\/a>) move to pause its dividend growth<\/a>, National Bank\u2019s Adam Shine bumped his target for its shares to $21.50 from $21 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $21.39.<\/p>\n