![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/21-draft-review-website.jpg\")
\u00a0<\/p>\nDecember 8, 2025
David Seifert
Director of College Scouting<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Part Four of our five-part Draft Review series, the 2021 Draft was the first year of 20 total rounds. It also followed the path of 2018 as the early rounds were largely unpredictable.<\/p>\n
In case you missed Parts One, Two or Three, you can find them here:<\/p>\n
2020 Draft Review<\/a> The top ten overall selections in 2021, with the exception of Colton Cowser, have all underperformed to date:<\/p>\n 1- Henry Davis (PIT) With a career MLB batting average of .181, Davis can be declared a bust at 1-1, joining Mickey Moniak (2016) and Mark Appel (2013) as two other recent examples. It must be noted that Davis was not a consensus 1-1 pick \u2013 there wasn\u2019t one \u2013 Rocker and Leiter were the two others most mentioned. However, Davis was signed for a below slot bonus which allowed the Pirates to sign Bubba Chandler for $3M in the 3rd round. Chandler has developed into a top pitching prospect and made his MLB debut this past season.<\/p>\n Mozzicato was a surprise pick at 7th overall, considering his pre-draft ranking (No. 45 on our Draft Board<\/a>). His signing for a below slot deal allowed Kansas City to select and pay four high-ceiling preps among their top five picks.<\/p>\n The Angels selection of Bachman 9th overall (Draft Board ranked No. 23<\/a>) was also a bit of a head-scratcher. Possessor of two nasty offerings in an upper-90s heater and nasty slider, he still profiled as a future reliever. Bachman did begin his minor league career as a starter, but has strictly been a garden variety reliever at the Major League level.<\/p>\n The Top 15 Players:<\/p>\n Unlike 2020 when seven of the current top ten WAR producers are from the high school ranks, 2021 has a strong college vibe. Currently, eight of the top ten are collegians with San Diego\u2019s Jackson Merrill and James Wood the only preps.<\/p>\n 2021 is also similar to 2018 as unpredictability returned to the top WAR producers with just three of the top ten former first-rounders. And the later rounds were once again a gold mine of undervalued draft picks with Bibee in the 5th, Woo in the 6th and both Young and Cameron in the 7th.<\/p>\n \u00a0 The Top Ten Teams + One:<\/p>\n Currently, the Reds lead the field in overall WAR thanks to their 2nd round selection and the \u201csteal of the draft\u201d Andrew Abbott. His 11.7 current WAR leads all others by a good margin. Matt McLain (1st round) has also been a producer for the Reds with a current 3.6 career WAR.<\/p>\n Long-term the Padres could command the top spot with its selection of Merrill (27th overall) and Wood 62nd overall. Cleveland chose five of its first 11 picks from the SEC, and in doing so their draft class projects to become 60-grade. It\u2019s led by starting pitchers Bibee and Williams, and a trio of Florida Gators who reached AAA this past summer in Tommy Mace (2nd round), Jack Leftwich (7th) and Franco Aleman (14th). And Seattle seconds the Guardians with two rotation pieces of their own with the draft\/development of Woo and Bryce Miller (4th).<\/p>\n Prep Baseball\u2019s good fortune ran short in 2021 with our annual Simul-Draft. Picking 5th overall we selected Rocker. The Mets selected him 10th, but he did not sign. They lost the pick (and bonus allotment) and so did we. However, with a gut feel pick in the 2nd round, we rebounded and saved what could have become a lost draft.<\/p>\n The Middle Ten Teams:<\/p>\n The middle. Better than the bottom, but it\u2019s still the middle. Not much to note here except the big-time area scouting job done by the Royals on Noah Cameron who was selected out of Central Arkansas in the 7th round during a draft year that the left-hander did not throw a single pitch. The Royals also boast 3rd rounder Carter Jensen who is currently considered MLB\u2019s No. 37 overall prospect. It\u2019s also been great to see the return-to-form of Mike Vasil who was a first round prospect out of high school. Vasil scuffled for three seasons at Virginia before righting his ship as a minor league prospect in the Mets system and then blossoming with the White Sox in the Major Leagues this past season.<\/p>\n The Bottom Ten Teams:<\/p>\n It\u2019s still early to reach final conclusions upon a particular team\u2019s draft class, but we are four-plus years removed and can safely state the following:<\/p>\n Texas: Second overall pick Jack Leiter has accumulated a current career WAR of -1.2, but he could be on the cusp of consistent production after posting 10 wins and a 3.86 ERA in 29 starts this past season \u2013 good for a 0.4 WAR. 2nd rounder Aaron Zavala is a career .238 hitter in five minor league seasons over 470 games. 3rd rounder Cameron Cauley is 22 years of age and a career .240 hitter over five years and 410 games in the minor leagues.<\/p>\n San Francisco: The Giants selected three college pitchers who were labeled as likely quick-movers with their top three picks, yet 14th round righthander Landen Roupp has outperformed them all. 1st rounder (14th overall) Will Bednar was moved to the pen in 2024, but has still not reached the Major Leagues. 2nd rounder Matt Mikulski was a risky pick to begin with due to delivery\/command concerns. He too, was moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023 and has not progressed to above High-A. 3rd rounder Mason Black has reached the Major Leagues, and as a starter, but to date has accumulated a -0.6 WAR over ten games with a 6.47 ERA.<\/p>\n Boston: 1st rounder (4th overall) Marcelo Mayer has not come close to expectations, but he did reach the Major Leagues this past season and hope remains that he turns into a productive big leaguer. At the time of his promotion, he was the BoSox top prospect. 2nd rounder Jud Fabian did not sign and returned to college for his senior year. He was selected again in the 2nd round in 2022 (by Baltimore) and has amassed a .217 career minor league batting average, most recently hitting .183 in Triple-A this past season. 3rd rounder Tyler McDonough reached Triple-A this past summer, but he\u2019s a career .246 hitter over four-plus minor league seasons.<\/p>\n LA Angels: We earlier mentioned 1st rounder and 9th overall pick Sam Bachman. The Halos continued their binge of collegians, selecting 19 college pitchers out of their 20 total picks. Second-rounder Ky Bush was traded to the White Sox in 2023 and reached the Majors in 2024, where he posted a 0.1 WAR. He missed all of the 2025 season due to TJ injury. 3rd rounder Landon Marceaux missed all of the 2024 season due to injury before returning in 2025 and posting a 14.73 ERA in 3.2 innings of Rookie ball for Kansas City.<\/p>\n Minnesota: 1st rounder (26th overall) Chase Petty was traded less than a year after his selection by the Twins to the Reds for Sonny Gray during spring training in 2022. Petty hasn\u2019t developed as projected, but he did make his Major League debut in 2025, allowing 14 runs and 14 hits in six innings. Supplemental 1st rounder Noah Miller was traded to the Dodgers in 2024. He\u2019s a career .235 minor league hitter with well below average power. 2nd rounder Steve Hajjar was also traded, to the Guardians in 2023, but he has toiled in High-A or below the past three seasons.<\/p>\n Tampa Bay: MLB\u2019s No. 50 overall prospect Carson Williams (1st round) made his MLB debut in 2025. It wasn\u2019t perfect (.172 average in 99 at-bats), but it was another step up the ladder for a middle-of-the-diamond defender. Supplemental 1st rounder Cooper Kinney has remained in good health after missing all of his 2022 season with a torn labrum and the resulting surgery. He batted .242 in Double-A as a 22 year-old this past summer. The Rays third pick, 2nd rounder Kyle Manzardo has mashed 32 career Major League home runs to date while accumulating a 0.4 career WAR.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh: With Davis a likely bust, the Pirates 2021 draft rests on the $3M man \u2013 Bubba Chandler \u2013 and Supplemental 1st rounder Anthony Solometo who posted 10 strong innings as a 22 year-old lefthanded pitcher in Double-A this summer. 2nd rounder Lonnie White also looks like a bust after hitting .216 in four-plus seasons and over 1000 plate appearances, all below Double-A.<\/p>\n Miami: The Fish went all in on preps, selecting three with their first four picks. 1st rounder Khalil Watson was traded to Cleveland in 2023 and batted .255 with some thump (.477 SLG) in Triple-A this season. Supplemental 1st rounder Joe Mack batted .250 with 18 doubles and 18 home runs as a 22 year-old in Triple-A this past season. He\u2019s currently ranked as the No. 70 overall prospect in MLB. 3rd rounder Jordan McCants has not hit like the other two prep picks. He has batted .219 over 215 games combined the past two summers in Low-A.<\/p>\n Chicago Cubs: Out of the gates 1st rounder Jordan Wicks looked to be a long-term lefthanded rotation piece. However, Wicks has fallen from his quick-rise success as a starter to a bullpen role this past season for the Cubs. An overslot sign for $2.1M in the 2nd round, James Triantos is a likely big leaguer, but not an impactful one as a light-slugging utility role player. 3rd round lefthander Drew Gray has not pitched above High-A in his four-plus seasons of minor league baseball, but does rank as the Cubs\u2019 No. 27 prospect. 4th rounder Christian Franklin batted .272 with 40 XBH and 19 stolen bases as a 25 year-old in Triple-A this past season. He was shipped to Washington at the 2025 trade deadline and now ranks as the Nats\u2019 No. 13 prospect per MLB Pipeline.<\/p>\n Philadelphia: 1st rounder Andrew Painter was on the fast-track to becoming a big league ace before missing all of the 2023 and 2024 seasons with elbow surgery. He returned in 2025 with mixed success and continues to rank as the Phillies top prospect and No. 16 overall in the minor leagues. Ethan Wilson was a surprise pick in the 2nd round. He did not hit as projected and was released during spring training in 2025. He\u2019s now playing in the independent leagues. 3rd rounder Jordan Viars is doing the same after batting .138 in 94 at-bats in High-A this summer. He was released in early August. 5th rounder Griff McGarry rocketed up through the minor league system, reaching Triple-A in his first full season in 2022. In 2025 he pitched 72 innings at Double-A, striking out 103.<\/p>\n EFFICIENCY RANKINGS:<\/p>\n And finally, draft efficiency and the Return on Investment. It\u2019s not my money and the nature of the beast is oftentimes failure, but getting a strong return on one\u2019s investment does have importance. Keep in mind that not all drafts are created equal \u2013 money matters and where a club picks in each round does as well. Below we rank clubs on the WAR produced per dollar spent on their 2021 draft.<\/p>\n \u00a0 San Diego is the current, and likely forever efficiency leader thanks to the draft\/development of Merrill and Wood, who both look like long-term big leaguers.<\/p>\n The Mariners could have something to say about numero uno. Woo and Miller are established Major Leaguers and if not for Cal Raleigh, MLB\u2019s No. 42 overall prospect (and recently traded) Harry Ford would be producing WAR as well. And let\u2019s not forget 2nd rounder Edwin Arroyo who was traded to Cincinnati for Major Leaguer Luis Castillo in 2022. Arroyo batted .284 with 23 doubles as a 21 year-old in Double-A this past season.<\/p>\n Whiffing on our selection of Rocker, we weren\u2019t able to spend anywhere near our bonus pool ($11.83M) and lost the leverage associated with the 5th highest pool. It\u2019s always a major blunder to not sign your first round pick, but we did rebound thanks to Andrew Abbott and a couple lower round picks \u2013 2021 Simul-Draft<\/a>.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh and Detroit look to have dropped the ball while holding the top two bonus pools. With the top pool of $14.4M and spending $15.94 the Pirates likely won\u2019t have much more than MLB\u2019s current No. 14 overall prospect in Bubba Chandler to carry their 2021 draft. There is a little more life to Detroit\u2019s second-best pool of $14.25M and dollars spent of $16.16M. Top pick Jackson Jobe made his MLB debut in 2024 and followed it up with a solid 2025. Third-rounder Dylan Smith also made some Major League contributions in 2025, as did 7th rounder Brant Hurter.<\/p>\n For a look back at more highlights of the 2021 MLB Draft, please see the top stories:<\/p>\n Day One Takeaways<\/a>
2019 Draft Review<\/a>
2018 Draft Review<\/a><\/p>\n
2- Jack Leiter (TEX)
3- Jackson Jobe (DET)
4- Marcelo Mayer (BOS)
5- Colton Cowser (BAL)
6- Jordan Lawler (ARI)
7- Frank Mozzicato (KC)
8- Benny Montgomery (COL)
9- Sam Bachman (LAA)
10- Kumar Rocker (NYM)<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2021Top15Players2.png\")
\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2021Top10Team.jpg\")
\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2021Mid10Teams.jpg\")
\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2021Botm10Teams.jpg\")
\u00a0<\/p>\n![\"\"\/](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2021ROI.jpg\")
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Day Two Takeaways<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"December 8, 2025David SeifertDirector of College Scouting \u00a0 Part Four of our five-part Draft Review series, the 2021…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":332629,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[49,48,462,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-332628","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332628","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=332628"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332628\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/332629"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=332628"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=332628"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=332628"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}