Tuley\u2019s Takes \u2013 NFL Week 15 Picks:<\/p>\n
We\u2019re having a great holiday season in the Tuley\u2019s Takes home office (and preparing our annual office Christmas party, just hope it doesn\u2019t turn into a Die Hard situation), but suffered a losing NFL Week 14 last week.<\/p>\n
After a nice run of four straight winning weeks, we went 2-3 ATS with our Best Bets here with wins on the Bengals +5.5 in their spread-covering 39-34 loss at the Bills and Texans +3.5 in their 20-10 outright upset at the Chiefs. However, we lost badly with the Falcons +7 and Cardinals +8 and by just half a point with the Bears +6.5 (I\u2019m not a fan of buying half-points, but it made sense and earned a push in that case, but we have to grade it here as a loss).<\/p>\n
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Our patent-pending \u201cTuley\u2019s Teaser Portfolio\u201d also had a rare losing week as our recommended legs for 2-team, 6-point teasers went 4-4, and it\u2019s hard to make a profit with a .500 mark.<\/p>\n
But even though I landed on too many dead dogs this past Sunday, I\u2019m encouraged as underdogs have actually taken a 103-99-1 ATS lead on the NFL season after going 8-5 ATS in Week 14 (one pick-\u2019em on Commanders-Vikings not included) following a 10-6 ATS mark in Week 13. I\u2019ve written for years, going back to my Daily Racing Form and ESPN days that this time of year (call it McRib season or just oddsmakers and the public overreacting to the haves and have-nots and overinflating points spread) is usually good for dogs.<\/p>\n
Hopefully that continues, as all NFL teams are done with their byes and we have full 16-game weeks the rest of the regular season to find those soft spots.<\/p>\n
For the uninitiated here at Tuley\u2019s Takes, I give my \u201ctake\u201d on each pro football matchup from my \u201cdog or pass\u201d point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play \u2013 or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don\u2019t have an official Best Bet, I\u2019ll still at least give my patent-pending \u201cPool Play Percentages\u201d for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.<\/p>\n
Here we go in rotation order.<\/p>\n
THURSDAY<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: When the schedulemakers made this game the Week 15 Thursday nighter, they probably thought it would be a head-to-head battle for the NFC South lead. However, the Falcons are a disappointing 4-8 and already eliminated from even a wild-card hope.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Bucs are 7-6 and tied with the surprising Panthers. They need this game more, obviously; however, let\u2019s not forget that after getting blown out by the Rams 34-7 three weeks ago, they\u2019ve been in this same spot and failed to cover as 4-point favorites against the Cardinals two games ago and then lost 24-20 to the Saints as 7.5-point favorites. That shows me they can\u2019t just \u201cflip the switch\u201d and cover, and don\u2019t forget those were both also at home, so I don\u2019t want to hear about home-field advantage. The Falcons have their own problems, but I\u2019ve had a lot of success this season with TNF dogs on short weeks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Falcons +4.5 (pool play: Falcons 67\/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Buccaneers still 67\/33 in SU pools \u2013 basically, what I\u2019m saying here is if they played this game three times that likely the Bucs would go 2-1 but in one win the Falcons would cover to go 2-1 ATS).<\/p>\n
SUNDAY<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: VSiN subscribers might remember from the NFL Betting Guide over the summer that I gave out Texans Over 9.5 Season Wins +110 and +105 to win the AFC South, so I\u2019ve been thrilled with their resurgence as they\u2019re two wins from going Over with four games left and have caught the Colts and are just one game behind the Jaguars. Granted, the Cardinals are among the worst teams in the league at 3-10, but I still feel this is one of those overinflated lines.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Texans win with their No. 1-ranked defense, and I expect them to grind out another win here. And even though the Cards were routed 45-17 by the Rams this past Sunday, they lost by a field goal vs. the Jaguars and Bucs in their two prior games. That works for us here.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Cardinals +9.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60\/40 in ATS contests, but Texans still 80\/20 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: Here\u2019s another overinflated line, and I\u2019m sure after the Raiders\u2019 much-discussed back-door cover against the Broncos, I\u2019m sure everyone is expecting me to be on them. And I normally would, but even though the Eagles don\u2019t deserve to be favored by this much or expected to cover such a big number, the Raiders were clearly the wrong side. I can\u2019t count on them to stay close enough again to bail out dog bettors. Besides, there are just too many bets I like way more this week.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55\/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Eagles 100\/0 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: I hadn\u2019t noticed in my early handicapping of the card, but we actually have four double-digit dogs in Week 15 (and one at 9.5), so we can certainly be selective in which ones we choose. The Jaguars took the AFC South lead with their 36-19 win at the Colts on Sunday and are certainly getting more public money. The advance line on this game was Jags -9.5, reopened at -11.5 on Sunday and has been steamed to -13.5 as of deadline Wednesday. I feel that\u2019s too much of an adjustment as the Jets have far more competitive the second half of the season, even if Tyrod Taylor (groin) isn\u2019t able to play and we\u2019re stuck with Brady Cook.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Jets +13.5 (pool play: Jets 60\/40 in ATS contests, but Jaguars at least 90\/10 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: The advance line for this game last week was Bears -6.5 before they lost 28-21 at the Packers. The Browns lost 31-29 at home vs. the Titans. Oddsmakers then moved the line across the key number to give us the Browns +7.5, and I\u2019ll take it.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Bears have obviously overachieved this season, but are looking like a legit playoff team. However, this is a sandwich game for them between two meetings with the Packers (note: I recommend an advance bet on the Bears as 3-point home dogs next Saturday), and I can\u2019t pass up getting more than a TD with the Browns\u2019 defense plus rookie QB Shedeur Sanders playing better.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Besides, forecasts call for a wind chill of -10 to -20 at Soldier Field on Sunday and inclement weather tends to level the playing field for our dogs and turn into low-scoring games where points are at a premium. (Note: I wouldn\u2019t talk anyone out of adding Bears -1.5 in their teasers, which we\u2019ll get to soon).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Browns +7.5 and possibly Bears -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Browns 60\/40 in ATS contests, but Bears still 80\/20 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: The Patriots won the earlier meeting 23-20 and are trying to wrap up the AFC East with another win Sunday. This line has bounced back and forth with both teams favored the past week, and the Bills are currently -1 as of Wednesday\u2019s deadline. I would consider either side in teasers if the line goes to 1.5, but our purposes here now it\u2019s not in my so-called \u201cteaser zone,\u201d so it\u2019s a pass).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55\/45 in all SU & ATS contests).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: The Bengals routed the Ravens 32-14 just two weeks ago in Joe Burrow\u2019s return, and regular readers know I\u2019m not a big fan of \u201crevenge\u201d and would rather have the team that showed it could beat the other, especially when getting points in the rematch.\u00a0<\/p>\n
However, the line is too short for me to take the Bengals +2.5, so let\u2019s officially start our Tuley\u2019s Teaser Portfolio for the week by moving them to +8.5 (across the key numbers of 3 and 7) and use in 2-team, 6-point teasers with our other eligible legs: Commanders +8.5 at Giants, Broncos +8.5 vs. Packers, Saints +8.5 vs. Panthers and and possibly Bears -1.5 vs. the Browns, though I like the dog in that game, shooting for a middle). As always, shop around not only for the best lines to tease but also for the lowest juice.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Bengals +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55\/45 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 65\/35 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: After the Chiefs lost to the Texans on Sunday night, they really needed the Chargers to lose Monday night at the Eagles to give them their clearest path to a wild-card spot. They\u2019re definitely up against it now and are in must-win spots the rest of the way, but as I said before with the Bucs, teams in must-win spots don\u2019t always win (if they were able to \u201cflip the switch,\u201d they would have done it already and not be in this spot). Frankly, the Chargers should actually be favored here, so we\u2019ll gladly take the points just in case the game comes down to a field goal.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Chargers +4.5 (pool play: Chargers 60\/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 60\/40 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: The Commanders were our most embarrassing teaser loss in Week 14 as they got behind the Vikings early and lost 31-0. While that was ugly, we don\u2019t see the Giants doing the same thing here, even with coming out of their bye week with a healthy Jaxson Dart (but for how long?).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Commanders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 55\/45 in ATS contests, but Giants still 65\/35 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: All the talk about this game has been about Daniel Jones\u2019 season-ending injury and the Colts signing Philip Rivers. The advance line was only Seahawks -4 but reopened -10 after Jones was injured and the Colts lost 36-19 at the Jaguars and has since been raised to nearly two TDs. Again, I see this as an overadjustment and will take the most points I can get, whether Riley Leonard gets the start or Rivers.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Colts +13.5 (pool play: Colts 60\/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks at least 80\/20 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: This is an interconference game but still important to both teams as both are in contention for No. 1 seeds and first-round byes. This should be played with a playoff intensity. I expect a hard-fought, one-score game, and it makes it one of my favorite plays in the Tuley\u2019s Teaser Portfolio at Broncos +8.5 at home.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55\/45 in ATS contests, but Packers still 60\/40 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: Here we have another game in the teaser zone. The Panthers are 7-6 and tied for the NFC South lead and I\u2019ve done very well betting them as underdogs this season. I\u2019m sure you\u2019ve all seen the stats on them as chalk (haven\u2019t won as road fave since 2021, 0-24 ATS as fave vs. sub-.400 tea since 2015, etc.), so I\u2019d warn anyone against laying the points with them here, especially as the Saints have been playing better lately, including upsetting the Bucs on Sunday. However, I\u2019m not willing to take the short number and will instead also put in our Tuley\u2019s Teaser Portfolio.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Saints +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55\/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers still 65\/35 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: Earlier this year, this was looking like it might be a game for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Rams are atop the conference, but the Lions are just 8-5 and a game out of the last playoff spot after going just 3-3 in their last six games. But I still have them among the best overall rosters and certainly able to match the Rams score for score. The advance line for this game was Rams -4.5, and I felt that was too high. Now it\u2019s up to 6, and that makes it a stronger play for me on the Lions.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Lions +6 (pool play: Lions 67\/33 in ATS contests, but Rams still 67\/33 in SU pools \u2013 see Falcons-Bucs \u201cpool play\u201d comment).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: The advance line for this game last week was 49ers -12.5 before the Titans upset the Browns 31-29 for just their second win of the season, while the 49ers were on their bye. The line has gone to 13 at some books, and my first question is why hasn\u2019t the line dipped off the Titans\u2019 win? I guess it\u2019s due to bettors liking teams off byes and the 49ers motivated by improving playoff positioning as they trail the Rams and Seahawks by a game in the NFC West and trying to hold onto one of the last wild-card spots (currently No. 6). Regular readers will recognize this as a \u201cswagger play\u201d on the Titans after snapping a 7-game losing streak, so I\u2019m all in on the Titans.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Titans +12.5 or better (pool play: Titans 65\/35 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 90\/10 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: How did this Sunday Night Football dud not get flexed out with the 6-6-1 Cowboys hosting the 5-8 Vikings? J.J. McCarthy returned with a career-high three TD passes in a 31-0 rout of the Commanders this past Sunday, but I still don\u2019t feel like I\u2019m getting enough points here. Longtime readers may remember that while I\u2019m usually an Under bettor, I do like Overs in late-season NFL games with teams playing out the string, as the defenses aren\u2019t that motivated to keep games closer and they turn into playground-like shootouts. Betting the Over is a good enough reason to get me to watch this subpar primetime matchup.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Over 47.5 (pool play: Cowboys 55\/45 in ATS contests and 70\/30 in SU pools).<\/p>\n
MONDAY<\/p>\n
Tuley\u2019s Take: This Monday nighter was looking like it could be as much of a dud as Vikings-Cowboys, but at least the Steelers are still trying to hold onto their lead at 7-6 in the AFC North while the Dolphins are somehow still alive for a wild-card at 6-7 if they can run the table (and get some help). I would normally love a road dog getting more than a FG on Monday Night Football, but I can\u2019t pull the trigger on the inconsistent Dolphins. Besides, Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers also showed me more fight in their 27-22 win at Baltimore on Sunday, and this is certainly an easier spot for them.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
NFL Week 15 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55\/45 in ATS contests and 70\/30 in SU pools).<\/p>\n