{"id":340466,"date":"2025-12-12T13:12:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T13:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/340466\/"},"modified":"2025-12-12T13:12:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T13:12:08","slug":"fridays-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades-10","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/340466\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Analysts at TD Cowen think \u201c2026 could be real estate\u2019s turn to outperform.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFollowing two years of wide underperformance comparable to 1998-1999 (which led to four years of subsequent outperformance), REITs increasingly appear ready to regain some market leadership,\u201d said the firm\u2019s real estate equity team, led by Sam Damiani and Jonathan Kelcher. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cMacro changes are hard to predict, but REITs offer attractive and stable yields and growth while biding time until the next catalyst for a bounce in valuations.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The group said Canadian-listed real estate heads into the new year \u201con a relatively solid footing, having largely adjusted to the re-setting of interest rates since 2022, lower population growth, and this past year\u2019s trade uncertainty.\u201d While acknowledging \u201ca cloudy macro backdrop and lingering uncertainty,\u201d they think Canada\u2019s economy and leasing fundamentals \u201cincreasingly appear resilient\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are forecasting 2026 total returns of 15-20 per cent for our REITs\/Real Estate coverage universe,\u201d they said. \u201cThis includes 10 per cent from yield and growth (each in the mid-single digits), and another 5-10 per cent from multiple expansion. This remains the key swing-factor. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cPotential catalysts we see for multiple expansion include 1) renewed confidence in the Canadian economy, 2) easing of today\u2019s strong investor preferences for other momentum-oriented sectors of the market, and 3) a moderation in long-term bond yields.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">With that bullish view, they refreshed their sector pecking order for 2026, explaining: \u201cFollowing three years of significant outperformance, we are moving Seniors down two positions to 4th in our pecking order. Residential moves up to second given its relative and absolute valuation, though we might be early on the call given no near-term catalysts. Industrial rises to third spot. Our property-type pecking order is Retail, Residential, Industrial, Seniors, and Office.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client report released before the bell, the analysts reaffirmed their estimates for 2026 while lowering most of their target prices for the Residential and Office equities in their coverage universe.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Changes are:<\/p>\n<p>Allied Properties REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AP-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/AP-UN-T\/\">AP.UN-T<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to $14.50 from $16. The average on the Street is $15.37, according to LSEG data.Boardwalk REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BEI-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BEI-UN-T\/\">BEI.UN-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $85 from $88. Average: $79.88.Canadian Apartment Properties REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAR-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAR-UN-T\/\">CAR.UN-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $47 from $49. Average: $48.50.BSR REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HOM-U-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HOM-U-T\/\">HOM.U-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to US$15.50 from US$16. Average: US$12.50.Killam Apartment REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KMP-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/KMP-UN-T\/\">KMP.UN-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $21 from $22. Average: $21.33.Minto Apartment REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MI-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MI-UN-T\/\">MI.UN-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $16.50 from $17. Average: $16.67.Northview Residential REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NRR-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/NRR-UN-T\/\">NRR.UN-T<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to $17.50 from $18. Average: $16.50.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a research report released Friday titled Time to look forwards, not backwards, Desjardins Securities analyst Benoit Poirier revealed his top picks in his industrial and transportation coverage universe for the year ahead.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cFor 2026, our investment thesis centres on looking forwards (not backwards) by focusing on quality businesses that faced headwinds in 2025,\u201d he said. \u201cOur top picks are CAE, TFII and WSP; we favour globally diversified names (outside Canada) with minimal tariff risk that in our view have wrongly fallen out of favour with investors, offering unique self-help catalysts to close valuation gaps regardless of macro volatility. While recent challenges such as a pause in pilot hiring, a prolonged freight recession and AIrelated fears weighed on these companies, we view them as temporary in nature and already showing early signs of reversal. This sets the stage for a more favourable setup in 2026, opening the door to incremental buyers.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">For his top picks, Mr. Poirier made these target adjustments:<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* CAE Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAE-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CAE-T\/\">CAE-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $51 from $46. The average is $43.99.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn Aerospace &amp; Defence, as well as overall, CAE is our favourite idea given its new CEO, new chairman, green shoots in pilot hiring, surging global defence spending, a red-hot bizjet market and structurally irreplaceable assets,\u201d he said. \u201cThe setup reminds us of BBD and ATRL in the early stages of their turnaround journeys. While financial targets are pending, we see potential for Civil EBIT margins at 25 per cent and Defence at 11\u201312 per cent. Applying these assumptions, along with a modest multiple expansion, yields a bullcase valuation of $64\/share (or $69\/share if we include buybacks). This scenario would effectively enable CAE to more than double its earnings within 3\u20134 years.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TFI International Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFII-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TFII-T\/\">TFII-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $170 from $157. Average: $144.48.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn Transportation, TFII stands out for its consolidation potential (in contrast to CN, CP and CJT), greater exposure to the U.S. (70 per cent of revenue), less cross-border\/tariff exposure, a superior 2027 FCF yield (11 per cent vs 3\u20135 per cent for the rails) and unique non-market-reliant self-help catalysts at TForce Freight. Importantly, while upside does not depend solely on a trucking rebound, we are starting to see early signs of a potential capacity crunch as driver regulatory enforcement is heightened in both the U.S. and Canada.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* WSP Global Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/wsp-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/wsp-T\/\">WSP-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $346 from $306. Average: $322.60.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn Engineering &amp; Construction, we like WSP, which continues to trade at what we view to be an unjustified discount on AI fears\u2014despite carrying the largest war chest for M&amp;A, easier organic comps and leading margin expansion. For investors looking for a more risk-taking profile with nuclear upside, ATRL remains a compelling alternative.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Stella-Jones Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SJ-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SJ-T\/\">SJ-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) at $102 (unchanged). Average: $91.60.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cIn Special Situations, we prefer SJ for its utility capex tailwind, steel M&amp;A runway, potential residential lumber divestiture and attractive valuation. We also continue to like DOO and CGY,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">His other target changes are:<\/p>\n<p>AtkinsR\u00e9alis Group Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ATRL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ATRL-T\/\">ATRL-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $130 from $115. Average: $121.01.Bombardier Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/BBD-B-T\/\">BBD.B-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $260 from $239. Average: $226. Cargojet Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CJT-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CJT-T\/\">CJT-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $118 from $117. Average: $115.01.Canadian National Railway Co. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNR-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CNR-T\/\">CNR-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $161 from $151. Average: $156.93.Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CP-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CP-T\/\">CP-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $133 from $120. Average: $121.98.Mullen Group Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MTL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/MTL-T\/\">MTL-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $19 from $18. Average: $16.44.Stantec Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/STN-T\/\">STN-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $173 from $160. Average: $170.14.Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TTNM-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TTNM-T\/\">TTNM-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $3.25 from $3. Average: $2.63.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">After Thursday\u2019s release of \u201cstrong\u201d third-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results, Stifel analyst Martin Landry emphasized Dollarama Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DOL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DOL-T\/\">DOL-T<\/a>) \u201ccontinues to report exceptional results every quarter,\u201d but he thinks its shares are now \u201cfairly valued at this point and reflect significant future earnings growth.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">The Montreal-based discount retailer <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-dollarama-results-raises-annual-sales-forecast\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-dollarama-results-raises-annual-sales-forecast\/\">reported<\/a> revenue for the quarter $1.909-billion, up 22 per cent year-over-year and exceeding Mr. Landry\u2019s $1.902-million estimate. Earnings per share grew 19 per cent to $1.17, which was 9 cents higher than the analyst\u2019s projection and 6 cents above the Street\u2019s forecast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe earnings beat vs our expectations comes from higher revenues and higher gross margins,\u201d he said in a client note. \u201cIn Canada, comparable store sales increased by 6 per cent year-over-year, the best performance of the last seven quarters. However, Dollarama benefited from a favorable calendar shift creating an easy comparable. Gross margin expanded by 110 basis points year-over-year in Canada on lower logistics and higher sales of seasonal products which tend to carry higher margins than consumables. Shares of Dollarama were down slightly on the day as investors anticipated good results and drove shares higher ahead of the print.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">While noting its operations in Australia were a notable contributor to the gains, Mr. Landry pointed to a \u201cstrong\u201d performance domestically for the EPS beat while also noting the growth from its Dollarcity business in Latin America. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cGross margin in Canada increased 110 basis points year-over-year to reach 45.8 per cent, higher than our estimate of 44.7 per cent,\u201d he said. \u201cGross margin was positively impacted by a higher seasonal mix and lower logistic costs. Canadian SG&amp;A expenses as a percentage of sales decreased by 10 basis points to 14.2 per cent on scale benefits. Excluding the contribution of Dollarcity and Australia, EBITDA margin reached 32.0 per cent, up 110 basis points year-over-year, higher than our estimate of 30.7 per cent and consensus of 31.1 per cent\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cDollarcity continues to outperform. Dollarcity increased its earnings by 64 per cent year-over-year, the highest growth rate of the last five quarters. Sales increased by 21 per cent year-over-year, which was combined with a margin expansion on lower logistics costs. Post quarter-end, the company opened its 700th store, marking a significant milestone as the brand is gaining scale and awareness in LATAM.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Keeping his \u201chold\u201d rating for Dollarama shares, Mr. Landry raised his target to $200 from $190 after rolling forward his valuation period. The average target on the Street is $213.29, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cShares appear fully valued,\u201d he said. \u201cDOL\u2019s shares are up 39 per cent in the past 12 months versus a return of roughly 23 per cent for the S&amp;P Consumer Discretionary Index, and are trading at approximately 37 times forward earnings, roughly 12 turns higher than the 10-year average. While we think Dollarama\u2019s financial performance in recent years justifies a premium valuation, we do not see further multiple expansion potential from current levels. In fact, we see a risk of multiple contraction under a scenario where investors rotate into consumer cyclical names.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* RBC\u2019s Irene Nattel to $225 from $220 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cStrong Q3 and year-to-date results against the backdrop of macro uncertainty and cautious consumer spending reinforce our view that DOL remains a best idea and core holding heading into 2026. Sector-leading growth trajectory, strong free cash flow, consistent return of capital and multi-geography LT growth platforms are supportive of premium valuation, in our view,\u201d said Ms. Nattel.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Vishal Shreedhar to $226 from $214 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe hold a positive view on DOL\u2019s shares reflecting a stable, high return on capital international growth story supported by strong cash flows, a solid balance sheet and resilient sales performance,\u201d said Mr. Shreedhar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TD Cowen\u2019s Brian Morrison to $235 from $210 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are increasingly confident that the Canadian operations can achieve stated targets as its outsized growth during elevated inflation normalizes, the growth outlook for Dollarcity LATAM appears exceptional, and in the probability of success for Mexico\/TRS. Based upon our positive outlook for the portability of the Dollarama business model internationally, we are increasing our target multiple supported by our segmented DCF analysis,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">National Bank Financial analyst Vishal Shreedhar thinks the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-empire-results-earnings-second-quarter-2025\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-empire-results-earnings-second-quarter-2025\/\">second-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results<\/a> from Empire Co. Ltd. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EMP-A-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/EMP-A-T\/\">EMP.A-T<\/a>) were \u201ctepid,\u201d featuring \u201cgood\u201d sales but higher costs and leading him to lower his forecast for the grocer.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cProfitable growth is a key strategic focus &#8230; (1) Management\u2019s long-term focus is: (i) Better serving customers, (ii) Simplifying stores (to support point i), (iii) Profitable growth, and (iv) Cost discipline,\u201d he said in a client note. \u201cEMP is approaching e-commerce as a multichannel opportunity (third-party partnerships) rather than purely focusing on Voil\u00e0 (improving year-over-year but not yet breakeven), which we expect will improve profitability. The industry\u2019s e-commerce penetration rate remains below EMP\u2019s expectation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cSales growth beyond sssg [same-store sales growth] largely came from new wholesale contracts (expected to grow), which we view to be an interesting vector. Our EPS estimates are revised: F2026 goes to $3.29 from $3.33 and F2027 goes to $3.58 from $3.66.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Shares of Nova Scotia-based parent company of Sobeys fell 9.2 per cent on Thursday after it reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization from its Food Retail segment of $566-million, down from $572-million a year ago and below Mr. Shreedhar\u2019s $583-million estimate. Earnings per share fell 4 cents year-over-year to 69 cents, matching the analyst\u2019s expectation but a penny below the Street\u2019s forecast, with margins hurt by labour action at its Alberta distribution centre in Alberta. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe remain on the sidelines as we evaluate EMP\u2019s ability to deliver consistent growth; the valuation discount versus peers, in part, compensates investors for a long-term fluctuating earnings track record,\u201d said Mr. Shreedhar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">With his reduced forecast, he cut his target for Empire shares to $54 from $58, reiterating a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average target is $58.33.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Elsewhere, other changes include: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris Li to $53 from $60 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAgainst a backdrop of moderating food SSSG over the next few quarters and normalizing gross margin expansion, a strong focus on cost reduction is key to sustaining earnings growth. This is a priority for management. If successful, we believe EMP should achieve its long-term 8\u201311-per-cent EPS growth target next year (in line with L and MRU). This is key to narrowing the large valuation discount (14 times forward P\/E vs 19 times for MRU and 24 times for L),&#8221; Mr. Li said. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* TD Cowen\u2019s Michael Van Aelst to $50 from $58 with a \u201chold\u201d rating.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cInvestors were unhappy with Q2 Retail EBITDA growth (ex Other Inc) of 1 per cent, and showed it by pushing EMP shares down 9 per cent. SSSG was solid, but led by lower-margin 3rd-party eComm deals. Full Service tonnage continues to decline modestly industry-wide. GM% expansion, which had been supporting EPS growth, slowed and EMP will now have to lean hard into opex cost controls to deliver on its EPS growth targets,\u201d said Mr. Van Aelst.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Following stronger-than-anticipated fourth-quarter results from TerraVest Industries Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TVK-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TVK-T\/\">TVK-T<\/a>) Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman predicts fiscal 2026 \u201ccould be an even better encore.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Shares of the Alberta-based manufacturer of home heating products and gas transport vehicles soared 22.3 per cent on Thursday after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newswire.ca\/news-releases\/terravest-announces-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results-for-fiscal-2025-and-a-14-dividend-increase-823149063.html\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.newswire.ca\/news-releases\/terravest-announces-fourth-quarter-and-year-end-results-for-fiscal-2025-and-a-14-dividend-increase-823149063.html\">it reported<\/a> sales, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS of $419-million, $81.9- million, and 83 cents. All exceeding the consensus for projections on the Street ($416-million, $68.5-million and 65 cents, respectively). Revenues jumped 81.8 per cent year-over-year on organic growth of 5.4 per cent as well as significant gains from M&amp;A (74.8 per cent) versus Mr. Goldman\u2019s estimates.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;We are incrementally bullish coming out of the quarter for several reasons: 1) Entrans was much better than feared (we estimate current run-rate EBITDA of US$50-million vs. our prior estimate ofUS$30million) and we have better visibility on trailer market trough; 2) we expect leverage back within the comfort range (2 times to 2.5 times) by 2HF26, which supports a reacceleration of M&amp;A following a very active 2025 (six deals adding more than $140-million EBITDA); 3) we think significant new growth vectors opened up in Highland Tank and Simplex; and 4) our estimates may prove conservative, especially as we do not contemplate a trailer market recovery, at all, and we do not model unannounced M&amp;A,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Maintaining his \u201csector outperform\u201d rating for Terravest shares, Mr. Goldman hiked his target to $179 from $165 after rolling forward his valuation. The average on the Street is $186.67.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Touting its \u201chigh-return model emerging from the build phase,\u201d Ventum Financial analyst Amr Ezzat initiated coverage of Toronto-based mobile surveillance and live monitoring solutions provider Zedcor Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ZDC-X\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ZDC-X\/\">ZDC-X<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d recommendation.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe believe the market is focused on the wrong part of the curve,\u201d he said in a client note. \u201cThe stock has re-rated sharply over the past two years, and the Street has repeatedly lifted near-term estimates to keep pace. In our view, this has created forecasts that now sit ahead of what the network can deliver without several large marquee wins, which remain possible but are not required for value creation. The model\u2019s long-term earnings power is being understated precisely because the Company is still in the network build phase, where consolidated returns mask the underlying economics. Our work focuses on duration rather than the next couple of quarters, and on the returns the business can produce once reinvestment intensity normalizes. Consensus sales for 2026 stands at $109.8-million, with a range of $104.0-million to $114.9-million. We are initiating at $100.2-million, below the low end. Any pullbacks tied to short-term forecast resets would, in our view, create opportunities within a bullish long-duration thesis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In a client note released late Thursday, Mr. Ezzat emphasized Zedcor has recently deployed capital into assets that \u201cearn materially higher returns than the consolidated business\u201d and noted the \u201cdurability of revenue comes from operating efficiency, not contract design.\u201d <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cReported ROIC [return on invested capital] is 7.8 per cent, only because the Company is still in the heavy build phase,\u201d he said. \u201cThe underlying economics are different. Each tower pays back in under two years, delivers 65-per-cent tower-level margins, and requires limited maintenance. If capital continues to be allocated at these incremental returns, consolidated ROIC should move toward 16-17 per cent (from the current 7.8 per cent) over the next four years as scale effects work through the cost structure and reinvestment intensity normalizes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cCustomers keep towers rolling through their workflows because the integrated hardware and monitoring meaningfully reduce friction. Better detection accuracy, fewer false alarms, consistent service quality, and higher reliability all contribute to lower operational burden. Competing platforms that rely on mixed OEM hardware, outsourced monitoring, and tiered service levels create dissatisfaction and raise churn risk. Zedcor\u2019s model embeds the service directly into customer operations, producing recurring demand that does not depend on legal renewal cycles.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">He also noted Zedcor\u2019s network \u201cbecomes more profitable as it grows\u201d and value creation \u201cultimately hinges on capital allocation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cAs regional density increases, route lengths shrink, redeployment cycles accelerate, and branch-level margins expand,\u201d he said. \u201cU.S. regions show higher utilization, while Canada\u2019s mature footprint delivers higher EBITDA margins, illustrating the early profile of the steady-state model. The investment case rests on capital allocation, a long reinvestment runway, and a clear path from early-stage ROIC to the returns implied by the underlying assets.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cThe central questions are whether reinvestment continues to flow into high-return units at similar economics and whether discipline is maintained as scale increases. Early decisions such as standardizing hardware, internalizing monitoring, and building regional density before wider expansion indicate a coherent strategy aligned with maximizing long-term returns per dollar invested. Insider ownership, including both the Board and management, is ~23%, reinforcing alignment around long-term capital-allocation decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">Mr. Ezzat set a Street-high 12-month target price for Zedcor shares of $8.70, implying a 47.5-per-cent return from current levels. The average target is $7.38.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">=====<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris MacCulloch trimmed his Athabasca Oil Corp. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ATH-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/ATH-T\/\">ATH-T<\/a>) target to $8.25 from $8.50 with a \u201chold\u201d rating. The average is $7.30.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are cutting our target on Athabasca &#8230; reflecting negative estimate revisions following the release of its 2026 capital budget, which disappointed on softer production guidance from Leismer and Duvernay Energy Corp. Meanwhile, the company continued to breadcrumb plans to further expand thermal oil sands production through greenfield development of its Corner asset. Accordingly, we have begun modelling initial capital spending in 2027, with an eye toward a potential sanctioning in mid-2026,\u201d said Mr. MacCulloch.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* National Bank\u2019s Matt Kornack raised his target for BSR REIT (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HOM-U-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/HOM-U-T\/\">HOM.U-T<\/a>) to US$13 from US$12.50, which is the current average. He kept a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;BSR hosted a property tour in Dallas, TX to showcase some of their recent acquisitions and talk to potential upside through lease-up, ancillary services and platform initiatives,\u201c he said. \u201dIn a formalized press release\/presentation, management highlighted the prospect for these initiatives to add between 13-22 cents of FFO through 2028. We are currently forecasting 11 cents of improved earnings through the end of 2027 and think that management\u2019s outlook is entirely reasonable. This growth comes after a period when earnings have been under pressure because of new supply deliveries in the REIT\u2019s markets combined with temporary dilution from disposition activity with funds eventually being deployed but into unstabilized assets.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;BSR\u2019s portfolio is well positioned to generate growth even in a competitive market environment.\u201c The properties we toured consisted of an older vintage asset where BSR improved the offering and has been working to rebuild online reputational scores following prior ownership mismanagement during a failed sale process; and a recently built best-in-the-sub-market asset undergoing lease-up. The physical attributes of both were attractive, but the real differentiator was the REIT\u2019s customer service-oriented model. This is translating into better performance vs. peers in a highly competitive supply environment.\u201c <\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris MacCulloch bumped his target for Cenovus Energy Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CVE-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/CVE-T\/\">CVE-T<\/a>) to $33.50 from $33 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $30.39.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cWe are increasing our target on Cenovus &#8230; reflecting positive estimate revisions following the release of 2026 guidance which surprised favourably with respect to upstream production, downstream throughputs and operating costs. In our view, the constructive update reflects organic growth initiatives and efficiency improvements, stemming in part from synergies realized through the strategically transformative MEG Energy acquisition. We continue to highlight the stock as a top pick,\u201d said Mr. MacCulloch.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* Stifel\u2019s Suthan Sukumar cut his D2L Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DTOL-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/DTOL-T\/\">DTOL-T<\/a>) target to $19 from $22 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating to reflect a lower near-term growth profile and recent peer multiple compression. The average is $21.80.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cPersisting headwinds in the US K-12 segment remains a drag on the near-term outlook, but multiple quarters of consecutive pipeline expansion with increasing buyer intent speaks to potential for pent-up demand building in the core higher-ed segment, where D2L remains competitively positioned with a differentiated AI strategy, which has been fueling sustained competitive displacements vs. larger, distracted peers with improving win-rates &#8211; supporting our thesis for more share gains ahead. With continued momentum in international expansion and corporate learning, we see year-over-year ARR growth rebounding to the double-digits over the course of next year, reaffirming the path to the company\u2019s medium-term targets (F28) for 10-15-per-cent year-over-year revenue growth and 18-20-per-cent EBITDA margins,\u201d said Mr. Sukumar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* RBC\u2019s Rob Mann lowered his Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GTE-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/GTE-T\/\">GTE-T<\/a>) target to $6.50 from $8 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average is $8.17.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cGran Tierra announced its 2026 budget [Wednesday] night, with equivalent production and capital spending coming in well below Street expectations as the company aims to prioritize free cash flow generation next year,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In response to Thursday\u2019s release of its 2026 budget, TD Cowen\u2019s Menno Hulshof raised his Suncor Energy Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SU-UN-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/SU-UN-T\/\">SU-T<\/a>) target to $73 from $71 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, while Desjardins Securities\u2019 Chris MacCulloch bumped his target to $74 from $73 with a \u201cbuy\u201d recommendation. The average is $64.93.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">&#8220;We are increasing our target &#8230; reflecting positive estimate revisions following the release of 2026 guidance,&#8221; said Mr. MacCulloch. \u201cThe company continues demonstrating strong operational momentum, underpinned by 100-per-cent utilization of its upgraders and refineries, which was the key driver of our target price increase. Looking ahead, SU is planning an operational update in early January, and we expect it to unveil further cost-saving initiatives and updated nameplate capacities at a forthcoming investor day.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">* In response to its fourth-quarter results and \u201csurprise\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-transcontinental-sale-packaging-division-proampac-montreal\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/business\/article-transcontinental-sale-packaging-division-proampac-montreal\/\">announcement of the $2.2-billion sale<\/a> of its flagship packaging business to Cincinnati, Ohio-based ProAmpac Holdings Inc., RBC\u2019s Drew McReynolds bumped his target for shares of Transcontinental Inc. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TCL-A-T\/\" target=\"_self\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"https:\/\/www.theglobeandmail.com\/investing\/markets\/stocks\/TCL-A-T\/\">TCL.A-T<\/a>) to $29 from $26, keeping an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $26.75.<\/p>\n<p class=\"c-article-body__text text-pr-5\">\u201cInflection point on positive revenue and EBITDA growth remains the primary catalyst for the stock,\u201d Mr. McReynolds said. \u201cFollowing the proposed $2.2-billion sale of Packaging, the focus now shifts to the extent to which the remaining asset mix (Retail Services and Printing, Media\/Educational Publishing) can return to sustained positive revenue and EBITDA growth, which in our view, remains the primary re-rating catalyst for the stock. For F2026, management expects organic revenue growth to be slightly negative with EBITDA largely stable YoY. While the timing of any inflection point on growth remains unclear to us, we would not rule out F2027 reflecting the likelihood of additional growth-accretive tuck-in acquisitions within In-Store Marketing (ISM), the potential absence of Canada Post strike impacts, the full realization of corporate cost reductions following the sale of Packaging, and other pockets of growth (raddar, Media, book printing). In the meantime, we expect investors to continue to benefit from ongoing capital returns (dividends, special dividends, share repurchases) building upon what will have been two special dividends amounting to $21\/share paid.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions Analysts at TD Cowen think \u201c2026 could&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":340467,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[901,888,902,879,877,903,45,49,48,876,895,896,891,878,875,46,549,295,894,887,914,880,881,893,889,890,884,904,885,909,910,912,907,911,905,908,882,898,899,714,897,906,865,61,900,892,886,883,913],"class_list":["post-340466","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business","tag-alberta","tag-arts-news","tag-bc","tag-breaking-news","tag-breaking-news-video","tag-british-columbia","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-news","tag-canada-sports","tag-canada-sports-news","tag-canada-trafficcanada-weather","tag-canadian-breaking-news","tag-canadian-news","tag-economy","tag-education","tag-environment","tag-federal-government","tag-foreign-news","tag-globe-and-mail","tag-globe-and-mail-breaking-news","tag-globe-and-mail-canada-news","tag-government","tag-life-news","tag-lifestyle","tag-local-news","tag-manitoba","tag-national-news","tag-new-brunswick","tag-newfoundland-and-labrador","tag-northwest-territories","tag-nova-scotia","tag-nunavut","tag-ontario","tag-pei","tag-photos","tag-political-news","tag-political-opinion","tag-politics","tag-politics-news","tag-quebec","tag-sports-news","tag-technology","tag-travel","tag-trudeau","tag-us-news","tag-world-news","tag-yukon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340466","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340466"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340466\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/340467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340466"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340466"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340466"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}