As for the matchup itself, the numbers suggest two teams that are arriving at this game from similar places, even if they took different routes to get here. Both the Oilers and Leafs stumbled out of the gate this season, and for a stretch, Toronto was so bad that they looked like they had never played the sport before. They spent time dead last in the Atlantic, spinning their wheels while the noise around them was nothing but black clouds and doomsday planning. Since then, the Leafs have steadied themselves, clawing back to a 14-11-5 record and posting a respectable 5-2-3 run over their last 10 games. It hasn\u2019t always been pretty, but like Edmonton, they\u2019ve stopped the bleeding and started to look more like the team people expected in October.<\/p>\n
Offensively, the similarities continue. The Oilers<\/a> are averaging 3.32 goals per game, the Leafs are at 3.30, with both clubs hovering around the century mark in total goals scored. One major difference I noticed is not so much about what\u2019s being created as about how it\u2019s being managed. Toronto has been far leakier in terms of shot volume, giving up more than 31 shots per night, but they\u2019ve survived thanks to a .906 team save percentage at even strength and a shooting percentage north of 11%. Our beloved Oilers, on the other hand, have done a better job controlling play and limiting chances lately, but they paid for their mistakes early in the year with a sub-.900 team save percentage and a PDO that suggests there may still be some correction coming. We\u2019ll see if Tristan Jarry can help turn that first number around.Always with Edmonton, special teams feel like the biggest potential swing point. The Oilers<\/a>\u2018 power play continues to operate at a borderline unfair 32.1%, while Toronto\u2019s has lagged well behind at 14.5%. I don\u2019t know if they miss Marner that much, or if Toronto\u2019s PP is just running through some bad luck right now. If this game turns into a parade to the penalty box, that\u2019s a lever the Oilers will gladly pull. At five-on-five, the underlying numbers tilt slightly toward Edmonton, with a narrow edge in Corsi and expected goals, but not by enough to suggest a mismatch. These are two teams still finding their footing, still ironing out the wrinkles left behind by a brutal opening to the 2025-26 NHL season<\/a>.<\/p>\n The Oilers are rolling into this game with a brand-new goalie, a reworked blue line, and no time to ease into the changes. The Leafs are playing better hockey than they were a few weeks ago and are starting to look like a team playing up to its potential. Both sides are steadying themselves, but only one of them gets to leave Scotiabank Arena feeling like another step has been taken on their way out of their respective early-season holes.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s see what the numbers say\u2026<\/p>\n THE NUMBERS<\/p>\n OILERS<\/p>\n LEAFS<\/p>\n RECORD<\/p>\n 14-11-6<\/p>\n 14-11-5<\/p>\n WIN\/LOSS STREAK<\/p>\n W1<\/p>\n L1<\/p>\n LAST 10 GAMES<\/p>\n 5-3-2<\/p>\n 5-2-3<\/p>\n GOALS FOR<\/p>\n 103<\/p>\n 99<\/p>\n GOALS AGAINST<\/p>\n 107<\/p>\n 96<\/p>\n POWER PLAY%<\/p>\n 32.1<\/p>\n 14.5<\/p>\n PENALTY KILL%<\/p>\n 80.2<\/p>\n 82.1<\/p>\n GOALS FOR\/GAME<\/p>\n 3.32<\/p>\n 3.30<\/p>\n GOALS AGAINST\/GAME<\/p>\n 3.39<\/p>\n 3.17<\/p>\n AVG. SHOTS\/FOR<\/p>\n 28.5<\/p>\n 27.1<\/p>\n AVG. SHOTS\/AGAINST<\/p>\n 26.6<\/p>\n 31.3<\/p>\n TEAM SAVE%<\/p>\n .884<\/p>\n .906<\/p>\n CORSI FOR%<\/p>\n 50.07<\/p>\n 45.67<\/p>\n PDO<\/p>\n 0.973<\/p>\n 1.020<\/p>\n TEAM SHOOTING%<\/p>\n 8.94<\/p>\n 11.32<\/p>\n EXPECTED GOALS FOR%<\/p>\n 49.55<\/p>\n 48.49<\/p>\n Saturday\u2019s game marks the first of two meetings this season between the Oilers and Leafs, with these teams meeting again on February 3rd at Rogers Place to conclude the season series. The Oilers are 3-0-1 over their last four meetings with the Leafs.Adam Henrique leads all active Oilers in career games played (34) against Toronto, while Connor McDavid leads all active Oilers in career points (37).Connor McDavid has registered 12 points (4G, 8A) over his last six games vs. the Leafs, and has four multi-point games over that stretch. Meanwhile, Leon Draisaitl has put up points in seven straight games against Toronto (5G, 3A).LINEUPS\u2026Oilers<\/a><\/p>\n Nugent-Hopkins \u2013 McDavid \u2013 Hyman Ekholm \u2013 Bouchard Jarry<\/p>\n What else is there to talk about apart from Tristan Jarry making his Oilers debut and Spencer Stastney slotting in on the third pair alongside Ty Emberson? Our two new friends only arrived in Toronto last night, and I can\u2019t imagine what must be running through their minds as they work to get ready to play for a team they haven\u2019t even practiced with yet. Sure, they had the morning skate, but that\u2019s barely enough runway for introductions, let alone figuring out systems and where they need to be on the ice. Either way, the new era starts tonight in Toronto, and I\u2019m very excited to watch our new toys suit up for the first time.<\/p>\n
Podkolzin \u2013 Draisaitl \u2013 Savoie
Frederic \u2013 Henrique \u2013 Janmark
Mangiapane \u2013 Lazar \u2013 Tomasek<\/p>\n
Nurse \u2013 Regula
Stastney \u2013 Emberson<\/p>\n