https:\/\/trenzpruca.wordpress.com\/2019\/07\/13\/todays-fractured-factoid-the-world-will-end-in-2040\/<\/a><\/p>\n\u00a0\n<\/p>\n
In 1973, MIT researchers fed a lot of early computer data into a model called World3 and asked:<\/p>\n
\u201cHow long can industrial-era humans keep partying like we have infinite planets?\u201d<\/p>\n
World3 replied:<\/p>\n
\u201cAbout another 70 years.\u201d<\/p>\n
Which gave us a number: 2040 \u2014 the approximate \u201cend of civilization as we know it,\u201d absent major changes. It also flagged 2020 as the moment where things begin to wobble.<\/p>\n
A charming idea in 2019.
Less charming in 2025.<\/p>\n
So, let\u2019s walk through what\u2019s happened since \u2014 and why the model\u2019s ghost is still tapping its watch like a disapproving librarian.<\/p>\n
I. A BRIEF HISTORY OF \u201cWHO SAW THIS COMING?\u201d<\/p>\n
The 1970s were a wild time: disco, Watergate, platform shoes, and the na\u00efve hope that computing might solve all human problems. Into that haze came Limits to Growth, warning that:<\/p>\n
Population will rise<\/p>\n
Pollution will rise<\/p>\n
Resources will fall<\/p>\n
Industrial output will peak, then crash<\/p>\n
Social systems will break under the strain<\/p>\n
World3 was not predicting meteors or killer robots \u2014 just the math of overshoot. Endless growth on a finite planet doesn\u2019t end with a bang. It ends like a Jenga tower: slowly, then all at once.<\/p>\n
Their projections gave three timelines:<\/p>\n
Best case \u2014 global cooperation and sustainability<\/p>\n
Moderate case \u2014 eventually painful adjustment<\/p>\n
Business As Usual \u2014 collapse around 2040<\/p>\n
You\u2019ll never guess which one humanity chose.
(Hint: it wasn\u2019t #1.)<\/p>\n
II. \u201cBUSINESS AS USUAL\u201d: A PROGRESS REPORT<\/p>\n
Since 1973, we have performed a half-century-long demonstration of How To Ignore Every Warning Sign Ever.<\/p>\n
Population: doubled
Energy use: skyrocketed
CO\u2082: up-up-up
Inequality: locked-in
Political sanity: down the storm drain<\/p>\n
We squeezed resources like they were stress balls, then complained that the stress didn\u2019t go away. And we dumped trash into the only biosphere we have, like a teenager who thinks the laundry basket has magical powers.<\/p>\n
The MIT model didn\u2019t include \u201cTikTok,\u201d but it did predict general brain-rot as society gets overwhelmed.<\/p>\n
On that front, we are overachieving.<\/p>\n
III. THE \u201cBIG CHANGE\u201d OF 2020<\/p>\n
World3 said the first serious tremors would hit around 2020. As in:<\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe try taking this seriously now?\u201d<\/p>\n
Cue a global pandemic.
The entire planet went into time-out.<\/p>\n
Suddenly:<\/p>\n
All the while, the Doomsday Clock cleared its throat.<\/p>\n
Shock #1: Delivered on schedule.<\/p>\n
IV. 2025: THE CLOWN CAR DRIVES ITSELF<\/p>\n
And now we arrive at the present moment, where we are treated to Trump: The Resurrection \u2014 a sequel no one green-lit except the Electoral College and several very confused swing counties.<\/p>\n
Here is the inconvenient truth:<\/p>\n
Many of Trump\u2019s 2025 decisions, while wrapped in his usual slapstick authoritarianism, perfectly align with the worst-case collapse scenario.<\/p>\n
To be clear:
He is not intentionally collapsing civilization.
To be intentional would require reading something longer than a menu.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, the checklist:<\/p>\n
\t\t\tCollapse Factor
\n\t\t\tMIT Pessimistic Scenario
\n\t\t\tTrump 2025 Policy<\/p>\n
\t\t\tEnvironmental protection
\n\t\t\tRemove safeguards
\n\t\t\tRemoves safeguards then sues anyone who mentions ecosystems<\/p>\n
\t\t\tPublic infrastructure
\n\t\t\tMaintain to prevent systemic stress
\n\t\t\tPrivatize to the point the word \u201cpublic\u201d is treasonous<\/p>\n
\t\t\tGlobal cooperation
\n\t\t\tStrengthen
\n\t\t\tTariff war now includes allies and pineapples<\/p>\n
\t\t\tPolitical stability
\n\t\t\tCritical
\n\t\t\tGoverns by tantrum and purges<\/p>\n
\t\t\tWealth distribution
\n\t\t\tBecome more equitable
\n\t\t\tBecomes a funnel into Mar-a-Lago<\/p>\n
None of this requires a conspiracy.
Just a lack of impulse control.<\/p>\n
In short:
If you wanted to accelerate systemic breakdown, you could hardly do better.<\/p>\n
V. WHAT DOES COLLAPSE LOOK LIKE?<\/p>\n
People picture apocalypse as:<\/p>\n
Reality is far messier. Collapse is:<\/p>\n
Chronic shortages<\/p>\n
Failing infrastructure<\/p>\n
Declining trust<\/p>\n
Corruption as \u201cpolicy innovation\u201d<\/p>\n
Increasingly stupid political choices<\/p>\n
Endless fights over everything except the real problems<\/p>\n
Collapse is not an event.
Collapse is customer service on hold for 20 years.<\/p>\n
And we are listening to the same unbearable music.<\/p>\n
VI. THE DEPRESSING ACCURACY OF OLD COMPUTERS<\/p>\n
Multiple new studies comparing real-world data to World3 keep finding something unsettling:<\/p>\n
We are still tracking Business As Usual<\/p>\n
\u00a0\n<\/p>\n
Industrial output is near peak in several regions<\/p>\n
\u00a0\n<\/p>\n
Environmental stress is accelerating<\/p>\n
\u00a0\n<\/p>\n
Quality of life is flattening or falling<\/p>\n
Computers that crash when you hit \u201cprint\u201d were somehow better at forecasting the future than entire governments.<\/p>\n
Let that sink in.<\/p>\n
VII. THE OPTIMISM-INDUCING PART (TINY BUT REAL)<\/p>\n
Even the original authors insisted:<\/p>\n
Collapse is not inevitable.
It is a scenario, not a destiny.<\/p>\n
The \u201cstabilized world\u201d scenario \u2014 the good one \u2014 is still technically possible, requiring:<\/p>\n
Massive shifts in consumption<\/p>\n
Strong social safety nets<\/p>\n
Smart resource management<\/p>\n
Cooperation instead of cosplay nationalism<\/p>\n
Politicians who understand cause and effect<\/p>\n
So\u2026 yes, possible.
About as possible as teaching cats tax law.
But possible!<\/p>\n
If global civilization makes better choices \u2014 soon \u2014 we may dodge the worst outcomes. Even Trump can\u2019t ban hope. (He tried once, but the courts said hope is not a \u201cwoke ideology.\u201d)<\/p>\n
VIII. THE ENNUI APOCALYPSE: DEATH BY BOREDOM<\/p>\n
In the original post, I cracked that we might all die of ennui by 2040.<\/p>\n
Little did I know the universe would accept that as a design document.<\/p>\n
Today:<\/p>\n
Screens have replaced place.
And algorithms have replaced attention.<\/p>\n
The world may not starve.
It may simply forget how to want anything real.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s collapse too \u2014 the quiet kind.
The slow suffocation of meaning.<\/p>\n
IX. WHERE WE ACTUALLY STAND (SCORECARD)<\/p>\n
\t\t\tMetric
\n\t\t\tTrend
\n\t\t\tCliff Proximity<\/p>\n
\t\t\tClimate stability
\n\t\t\tFalling apart<\/p>\n
\t\t\tVery Close<\/p>\n
\t\t\tGlobal democracy
\n\t\t\tTeetering<\/p>\n
\t\t\tAlarmingly Close<\/p>\n
\t\t\tResource security
\n\t\t\tShrinking<\/p>\n
\t\t\tClose<\/p>\n
\t\t\tFood systems
\n\t\t\tStressing<\/p>\n
\t\t\tMaybe Too Close<\/p>\n
\t\t\tPolitical sanity
\n\t\t\tRapidly decaying<\/p>\n
\t\t\tThrough the floor<\/p>\n
\t\t\tBillionaire rocket escapes
\n\t\t\tIncreasing<\/p>\n
\t\t\tAlready launched<\/p>\n
We\u2019re not doomed.
We\u2019re just stressed, reckless, and badly supervised.<\/p>\n
Think of civilization as a 17-year-old with car keys.<\/p>\n
X. SHOULD YOU PANIC?<\/p>\n
Not yet.<\/p>\n
Panic wastes energy we will need for gardening and artisanal composting later.<\/p>\n
More useful to ask:<\/p>\n
What can we do that doesn\u2019t involve denial, magical thinking, or tweeting memes at each other while the heat index hits 125\u00b0F?<\/p>\n
We know what helps:<\/p>\n
Vote like the ocean is rising (it is)<\/p>\n
Support resource-smart policies<\/p>\n
Strengthen institutions instead of trolling them<\/p>\n
Choose cooperation over grievance cosplay<\/p>\n
Reward leaders who read beyond the table of contents<\/p>\n
It\u2019s either that, or buy canned beans and a solar-powered Wi-Fi unit for your bunker and hope the marauders are vegan.<\/p>\n
XI. 2040: THE PROVISIONAL END OF THE WORLD<\/p>\n
2040 is not a calendar appointment (\u201cApocalypse: 3:30 PM\u201d).
It\u2019s a risk window.<\/p>\n
A convergence point where:<\/p>\n
Environmental limits<\/p>\n
Economic fragility<\/p>\n
Demographic strain<\/p>\n
Political idiocy<\/p>\n
\u2026all meet up for the worst family reunion in history.<\/p>\n
Civilization has survived a lot.
But it has never attempted all the bad ideas at once.<\/p>\n
Until now.<\/p>\n
XII. CONCLUSION: CHEER UP \u2014 THERE\u2019S STILL TIME TO SAVE EVERYTHING<\/p>\n
The 1973 doom model is not laughing at us.
It is warning us.<\/p>\n
Humor is how we stay sane during the warning.<\/p>\n
All we need to avoid the 2040 cliff is:<\/p>\n
Competent global leadership<\/p>\n
A public not addicted to delusion<\/p>\n
A functioning information ecosystem<\/p>\n
Respect for science<\/p>\n
And a shared understanding that planetary survival outranks billionaire whims<\/p>\n
That\u2019s all.
Nothing major.<\/p>\n
If we accomplish that?
2041 will be delightful.
We\u2019ll toast the computers and say:<\/p>\n
\u201cSorry we doubted you, Grandpa Mainframe.\u201d<\/p>\n
If not?<\/p>\n
Well\u2026 at least we\u2019ll go down cracking jokes.<\/p>\n
Because humor is cheaper than therapy.
And civilization got expensive.<\/p>\n
NOTES & REFERENCES<\/p>\n
Limits to Growth (1972\u201374 modeling) \u2014 Donella Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth (1972); and subsequent updates via the Club of Rome.<\/p>\n
2020 data comparisons show continued \u201cBusiness As Usual\u201d trajectory \u2014 G. Herrington, \u201cUpdate to Limits to Growth,\u201d 2020 (Stanford MAHB).<\/p>\n
Long-term global risk assessments \u2014 \u201cEarth at risk: An urgent call to end the age of destruction and destitution\u201d (2024).<\/p>\n
Collapse dynamics & vulnerability research \u2014 \u201cDemographic synchrony increases the vulnerability of human societies to collapse\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n
Sustainability vs. overshoot mathematics \u2014 \u201cGlobal Population and Carrying Capacity in the Anthropocene\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n
Historical collapse patterns \u2014 \u201cThe Meaning of Collapse from Past to Present\u201d (2025).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Economics is a philosophy for supplying parasites with an operating system that provides the most efficient means of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":345289,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-345288","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=345288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/345288\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/345289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=345288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=345288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=345288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}