release <\/a>earlier today, CIBC\u2019s Andrew Grantham is out with a note pouring cold water on the recent hawkish repricing in the market. While headline inflation held steady at 2.2%, Grantham argues the details don’t support the aggressive pricing for hikes we’ve seen creeping into the strip before the end of 2026.<\/p>\nThe “Push and Pull” keeps the Bank on hold<\/p>\n
Grantham describes the current environment as a “push and pull” dynamic. You have the “push” of stronger food and gasoline prices\u2014grocery costs just saw their biggest monthly jump since March \u2014being offset by the “pull” of softer core inflation.<\/p>\n
That leaves the Bank of Canada in a bind, but a stable one.<\/p>\n
Key takeaways from CIBC:<\/p>\n
The Sweet Spot (sort of): Underlying inflation is sitting around 2.5%. That is still “too high” to justify any further interest rate cuts right now.<\/p>\n
The Pushback: However, the data isn’t hot enough to validate the market’s recent pricing for rate hikes. Pricing is currently at 12% for a hike in September or sooner with one hike at 92% by year end.<\/p>\n
Volatility Ahead: Don’t get chopped up by headline volatility in the coming months. Grantham warns that base effects from last year’s GST\/HST holiday will make the headline numbers noisy, even as core measures (excluding tax changes) likely continue to ease.<\/p>\n
The bottom line from CIBC is that the Bank of Canada is locked into a “prolonged pause”. That’s likely to make the Fed side of the equation more meaningful for USD\/CAD.<\/p>\n
They continue to forecast the overnight rate holding steady at the current 2.25% level throughout the entirety of next year. Bond yields and the Loonie drifted marginally lower on the print, suggesting traders are already starting to unwind some of those hike bets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If you’ve been watching the Canadian curve steepen with bets on Bank of Canada hikes, CIBC has a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":347795,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":{"0":"post-347794","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-ca","10":"tag-canada","11":"tag-economy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=347794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/347794\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/347795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=347794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=347794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=347794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}