After two bruising years for most of Canada\u2019s telecommunications stocks, analysts see 2026 as a year of rehabilitation rather than full revival.<\/p>\n
Forecasts from capital markets teams at RBC and National Bank of Canada are hopeful that the sector has finally stabilized, but expect further recovery will be slow, with modest gains in cash flow and perhaps slight gains in valuation multiples.<\/p>\n
The banks\u2019 consensus top pick is Rogers Communications (RCI-B.TO<\/a>), with further deleveraging on the horizon and a potential windfall from its consolidated sports holdings. Beyond Rogers, the banks diverge on the runner-up. RBC leans toward BCE Inc. (BCE.TO<\/a>, BCE<\/a>), with analyst Drew McReynolds arguing its valuation is attractive following its \u201chard reset.\u201d Conversely, National Bank favours Telus Corp. (T.TO<\/a>, TU<\/a>), betting its dividend \u2014 yielding about 9.5 per cent \u2014 is safe despite the pause in growth.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe up to a half point of EV\/EBITDA multiple expansion versus current levels would be the real size of the prize for investors in 2026, with the path to such multiple expansion notably different for each operator,\u201d the RBC outlook notes.<\/p>\n Overall, 2025 was a noteworthy year for the sector, with headlines including BCE slashing its dividend<\/a> and moving ahead with its U.S. Ziply acquisition, Telus pausing its dividend growth plans<\/a>, Rogers finalizing its purchase<\/a> of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment and Cogeco wading into the wireless market<\/a>.<\/p>\n The year\u2019s standout may have been Quebecor (QBR-B.TO<\/a>), which continued to disrupt the wireless market and saw its share price soar<\/a> \u2014 National Bank analyst Adam Shine notes that Quebecor was the \u201coutright winner\u201d in 2025 with shares up around 65 per cent. However, the analysts now see the stock as less compelling due to the multiple expansion over the past year.<\/p>\n Looking ahead, the analysts say 2026 momentum hinges on whether the industry can sustain the pricing discipline that began to emerge in 2025. RBC argues that the \u201cnew competitive equilibrium\u201d that saw less drastic price cuts during back-to-school and Black Friday should hold, supported by operators shifting focus \u201cfrom customer acquisition to customer retention\u201d with the pool of new subscribers reduced by immigration curbs.<\/p>\n There is data to support this pivot: An RBC survey that accompanies its forecast found roughly 35 per cent of Canadians are unlikely to switch providers, simply because they are happy enough with their service.<\/p>\n But evidence from the current holiday season suggests that equilibrium may already be wobbling. In a Wednesday note to clients, Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi reported that carriers were quietly offering aggressive in-store discounts well below their published online rates \u2014 including a Rogers 100GB plan for $35 and a Bell 100GB plan for $45 when bundled with internet. Yaghi warned that \u201clower volumes combined with price discounting could mean a more prolonged recovery period.\u201d<\/p>\n Even so, analysts point to pockets of potential upside, including Rogers\u2019 planned monetization of its sports assets and Telus\u2019 ongoing push to bring in partners for Telus Health, where management hopes to see the business valued \u201ccloser to $10B in the not too distant future,\u201d National Bank says.<\/p>\n Even with expectations reset, analysts caution that the sector\u2019s recovery remains fragile. Subscriber growth is expected to remain muted as slowing population gains limit the pool of new subscribers, and any slippage in pricing discipline could erode the modest financial improvements forecast for the year. RBC notes that industry revenue growth \u201cwill remain modest\u201d until new revenue streams reach scale.<\/p>\n Regulatory uncertainty also looms, with final decisions on wholesale internet rates and expanded Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) access pending. RBC warns that these outcomes could test the stability that emerged in 2025.<\/p>\n Company-specific execution will matter as well. Rogers will need to deliver on the planned monetization of its sports assets, Telus must progress on partnerships or sales within Telus Health, and BCE faces the challenge of integrating its Ziply acquisition while managing the fallout from its dividend cut. The year, National Bank\u2019s Shine said \u201cwill be about Big 3 delevering, falling [capital expenditures], and striving for discipline.\u201d<\/p>\n With much of the sector\u2019s upside tied to steady, incremental improvements rather than dramatic catalysts, telecom investors may find 2026 defined more by the ability of operators to avoid missteps than by momentum.<\/p>\n John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jmacf<\/a>.<\/p>\n Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple<\/a> and Android<\/a>.<\/p>\n