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Image by Amar Adestiempo.<\/p>\n
Thwaites, the most studied glacier in the world, commands attention because it is not only the widest in the world at 80 miles but also the shakiest. And its nickname \u201cThe Doomsday Glacier\u201d certainly sets it apart from the 500 other named glaciers in Antarctica. Based upon new research of 2024-25, polar scientists have been speaking out like never before, making public predictions about a rapidly deteriorating situation and insisting upon an end to burning fossil fuels, or else!<\/p>\n
The new studies identify new concerns: (1) undersea storms that deteriorate\/melt from below (2) hundreds of ice earthquakes, fracturing the glacier (3) Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf, a major portion of the glacier, seriously losing stability.<\/p>\n
And finally, a final goodbye to the iconic International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) as it goes dark by year-end 2026. The Trump administration\u2019s FY2026 budget request includes severe cuts to polar science, aiming to end support for the research icebreaker\u00a0Nathaniel B. Palmer\u00a0(NBP).<\/p>\n
Going forward, Thwaites cascading ice shelves will be unanticipated by polar researchers, as the Nathaniel\u00a0B.\u00a0Palmer\u00a0icebreaker, a veteran of 30 years, is no longer available. It\u2019s been canceled by budget cuts, and the only way to study sea ice is with a vessel. From this point forward, Thwaites abstruse behavior will come as an unwelcomed surprise to coastal megacities of the world.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, as of today, Thwaites followers can exhale because ITGC concluded that the monster glacier will continue to retreat but will not collapse this century and will only account for several inches of sea level rise by 2100. This conclusion is confusing as several recent studies outside of the purview of ITGC are issuing alarm signals of imminent danger and catastrophic sea level rise for today\u2019s generation, which comes as a real shocker, explained herein. This troubling difference of opinion amongst polar scientists likely points to the difficulties in analyses of an ice continent the size of Antarctica, or the US and Mexico combined; thus, subjective opinions become more prominent and can easily radically disagree. Of special note, the disagreement by scientists over future sea level rise is wide enough to drive a Mack truck through.<\/p>\n
Thwaites is so over-the-top controversial that it has its own international study group: International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration<\/a> involving 100 scientists from world-leading research institutes, but going dark soon. Interestingly, the ITGC web site states: \u201cThwaites Glacier\u2019s retreat has accelerated considerably\u2026, our findings indicate it is set to retreat further, and faster, through the 21st and 22nd centuries, and general collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over this timeframe cannot be ruled out.\u201d The date of this general statement on the web site is not provided, but ITGC was established in 2018. Additionally, a solution is offered: \u201cImmediate and sustained climate change mitigation (decarbonization) offers the best hope of delaying this ice loss and avoiding initiation of similar unstable retreat in marine-based sectors of East Antarctica.\u201d<\/p>\n In stark contrast to ITCG\u2019s assessment of sea level rise, other studies reported over the past 24 months by polar scientists, who are not necessarily with the ITCG, are bone rattling, e.g. an August 2024 meeting of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, 1,500 scientists: \u201cAntarctica\u2019s glacial melt is advancing faster than ever before in recorded history.\u201d Gino Casassa<\/a>, glaciologist and head of the Chilean Antarctic Institute, one of the attendees: \u201cBased upon current trends, sea levels will be up 13\u2019 by 2100,\u201d which begs the question of how high by 2035, one decade from now, and furthermore, this projection by Dr. Casassa is wide of the mark of the ITCG. In fact, this is the first known public statement of such an aggressive prediction. Additionally, in general support of Dr. Casassa\u2019s 13-feet, in November 2024, 450 polar scientists held an emergency summit<\/a> in Australia, stating: \u201cIf we don\u2019t act, and quickly, the melting of Antarctica ice could cause catastrophic sea level rise around the globe within our lifetimes.\u201d It is believed this is the first time such a shocking statement, specifically about Antarctica, has been issued by a major gathering of scientists. \u201cCatastrophic, within our lifetimes\u201d is a real punch to the gut.<\/p>\n Both instances go well beyond expectations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ITCG and published research in general. Both call for immediate halt to greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning as well as decarbonization. Nevertheless, in the face of scientists\u2019 warnings of deep, deep trouble, the United States is taking a path of climate change ignorance. This puts the world at risks which most of today\u2019s American politicians will not have to face because of indeterminate timing, making it easier to \u201cgo for the money\u201d and \u201cscrew the environment.\u201d As such, sorrowfully, money becomes the new Golden Calf (Book of Exodus). How\u2019d that biblical story work out?<\/p>\n