The big brokerages have weighed in with their 2026 market forecasts, and \u2013 are you sitting down? \u2013 they\u2019re calling for stocks to rise again.<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley sees the S&P 500 gaining as much as 14 per cent from current levels. Deutsche Bank is even more bullish, calling for the U.S. benchmark to rise about 17 per cent. Even Bank of America, the bear of the bunch, still predicts a gain of 4 per cent.<\/p>\n
But the specifics don\u2019t actually matter. By this time next year nobody will remember what each broker said, just like nobody remembers what they said about 2025. Or 2024.<\/p>\n
This year was easy for investors. Don\u2019t expect a replay in 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Well, I want you to remember what I\u2019m about to say. In fact, I\u2019m so confident in my five predictions that I encourage you to clip out this column and post it on your fridge for future reference. If you\u2019re reading this column online, or you don\u2019t have a fridge, take a screenshot and make it the background of your phone. That pic of your grandkids is years out of date, anyway.<\/p>\n Here are my bold predictions for 2026. And, remember, you heard it here first.<\/p>\n The market will be \u2018volatile\u2019<\/p>\n This seems like a safe bet. After all, there has never been a period in history when financial commentators described the stock market as \u201chighly predictable,\u201d \u201ctranquil\u201d or \u201cserene.\u201d It\u2019s always \u201cvolatile.\u201d Such is the nature of markets, especially when computer algorithms account for an estimated two-thirds of trading. So strap yourselves in, folks, because 2026 is going to be a real roller coaster. Mark my words.<\/p>\n Consumers will be \u2018nervous\u2019<\/p>\n If you pay attention to the financial media, you\u2019ll know that consumers everywhere are always \u201cnervous.\u201d They\u2019re nervous about their jobs, their household debt, the economy, the stock market, inflation, retirement, you name it. It doesn\u2019t actually matter what condition the economy is in \u2013 you never hear about consumers being \u201crelaxed\u201d or \u201cnot having a care in the world.\u201d Why would 2026 be any different? It won\u2019t.<\/p>\n Many stocks will raise their dividends <\/p>\n Despite pervasive and never-ending volatility and nervousness, lots of companies will continue to increase their dividends. <\/p>\n Let\u2019s start with the banks. Coming off a fourth quarter in which BMO BMO-T<\/a>, CIBC CM-T<\/a>, TD TD-T<\/a> and Royal RY-T<\/a> increased their payouts, it\u2019s clear the banks are in what I like to call \u201cdividend boost mode.\u201d Actually, the banks are almost always in dividend boost mode, except during extreme events such as the pandemic or the financial crisis. Barring something similar in 2026, I predict that each of the above banks will raise its dividend at least once.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll go even further and predict that many utilities and pipelines \u2013 including Fortis FTS-T<\/a>, Emera EMA-T<\/a>, Enbridge ENB-T<\/a> and TC Energy TRP-T<\/a> \u2013 will also raise their dividends, as they\u2019ve done for years. Put Brookfield Infrastructure BIPC-T<\/a> on the list, too. And Restaurant Brands International QSR-T<\/a>. Disclosure: I own all of the companies mentioned so far, both personally and in my model Yield Hog Dividend Growth Portfolio<\/a>. <\/p>\n You\u2019ll still be paying for everything with dollars<\/p>\n There are tens of thousands of cryptocurrencies \u2013 millions, by some estimates. What do all of these cybertokens have in common? Nobody uses them to buy anything. Their principal purpose is to enrich the issuers and give people a way to speculate. Countries such El Salvador tried to make bitcoin a legal currency, but it flopped. Maybe it\u2019s because we already have currencies and payment systems that work just fine and that people actually want to use. That\u2019s why I can confidently state that bitcoin will not replace dollars next year, the year after that \u2013 or ever, no matter what bitcoin bulls say. Related prediction: Crypto \u201cinvestors\u201d will lose billions of dollars to hackers and scammers, just as they did in 2025 \u2013 another reason most people have zero interest in using bitcoin to buy their groceries.<\/p>\n Stocks you don\u2019t own will outperform the ones you do<\/p>\n It\u2019s a truism of investing: No matter how well your stocks perform, there will always be some that do better. It\u2019s FOMO and hindsight bias rolled into one. For example, feeling good about Shopify\u2019s SHOP-T<\/a> 52-per-cent gain this year? You should have bought Celestica CLS-T<\/a> instead; it\u2019s up 195 per cent. Oddly, investors never think to compare their investments with securities that did worse. For example, if you\u2019re upset that Telus T-T<\/a> is down 10 per cent this year, it\u2019s a good time to remind yourself that you didn\u2019t buy Donald Trump\u2019s meme coin. Feel better now? You\u2019re welcome.<\/p>\n