UK economic growth slows as ‘spectre of recession begins to loom’<\/p>\n
The UK economy has grown more slowly than thought during 2025, sparking new concerns that recession fears could loom over Britain.<\/p>\n
The Office for National Statistics has revised down its estimate for growth in the second quarter of 2025, from 0.3% to just 0.2%.<\/p>\n
That follows 0.7% growth in Q1.<\/p>\n
The latest GDP quarterly national accounts also confirm that the UK economy only grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of this year, matching its first estimate, and confirming that the economy slowed after a decent start to the year.<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s report also shows that real GDP per head failed to grow in the July-September quarter, and was 0.9% higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n
Britons became poorer too, once you account for inflation \u2013 real household disposable income per head decreased by 0.8% in Q3, following no change in Q2.<\/p>\n
ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown says:<\/p>\n
\u201cToday\u2019s updated figures paint the same picture as our initial estimate, with growth continuing to slow in the third quarter. Growth in services were partially offset by falls in production, with a marked drop in car manufacturing.<\/p>\n
That drop in auto output was due to the cyber-attack at Jaguar Land Rover in September.<\/p>\n
[Reminder: we learned earlier this month that the economy sank slightly in October too<\/a>]<\/p>\n Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, warns that the UK economy is \u201cgrinding to a halt\u201d as growth slows.<\/p>\n \u201cGoing forward, November\u2019s Budget measures will do nothing for growth after the OBR forecasted zero impact from the policies introduced at the despatch box.<\/p>\n Instead, the government is going to have to hope that previous measures taken to date begin to bear fruit, or that geopolitical challenges calm down enough that global trade can rebound.<\/p>\n Unfortunately, neither seems particularly encouraging right now and as such the first half of next year is likely to be more of the same, if not worse with the spectre of recession beginning to loom.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.17 EST<\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n Larry Ellison gives $40bn personal backing to Warner Bros Discovery bid<\/p>\n Media news: Paramount has improved its hostile takeover offer for Warner Brothers, as it wrestles with Netflix to take control of the broadcaster and streaming operator.<\/p>\n Paramount is now offering a personal financial guarantee worth more than $40bn from Oracle chairman Larry Ellison, the father of Paramount CEO David Ellison. This guarantee is designed to resolve doubts about the financing of Paramount\u2019s offer.<\/p>\n It is alaso beefing up its reverse break-up fee (payable if Paramount can\u2019t get the deal past regulators) to $5.8bn, to match Netflix\u2019s.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s improved terms come less than a week after Warner Brothers rejected Paramount\u2019s $108.4bn bid, worth $30 per share, in favour of Netflix\u2019s $72bn deal.<\/p>\n David Ellison is urging Warner Brothers to accept his proposal instead, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cParamount has repeatedly demonstrated its commitment to acquiring WBD. Our $30 per share, fully financed all-cash offer was on December 4th, and continues to be, the superior option to maximize value for WBD shareholders. Because of our commitment to investment and growth, our acquisition will be superior for all WBD stakeholders, as a catalyst for greater content production, greater theatrical output, and more consumer choice. We expect the board of directors of WBD to take the necessary steps to secure this value-enhancing transaction and preserve and strengthen an iconic Hollywood treasure for the future.\u201d<\/p>\n Here are the details of Paramount\u2019s improved terms:<\/p>\n Irrevocable Personal Guarantee: Larry Ellison has agreed to provide an irrevocable personal guarantee of $40.4 billion of the equity financing for the offer and any damages claims against Paramount.<\/p>\n Revocable Trust: Mr. Ellison has agreed not to revoke the Ellison family trust (which has been operating for nearly 40 years as a counterparty to numerous transactions) or adversely transfer its assets during the pendency of the transaction.<\/p>\n Trust Assets: Paramount is publishing records confirming that the Ellison family trust owns approximately 1.16 billion shares of Oracle common stock and that all material liabilities of the Ellison family trust are publicly disclosed.<\/p>\n Transaction Terms: In an effort to address WBD\u2019s amorphous need for \u201cflexibility\u201d in interim operations, Paramount\u2019s revised proposed merger agreement offers further improved flexibility to WBD on debt refinancing transactions, representations and interim operating covenants.<\/p>\n Regulatory Termination Fee: To match the pending transaction, Paramount will increase its regulatory reverse termination fee from $5 billion to $5.8 billion.<\/p>\n Conditions: The offer is conditioned, among other things, on WBD continuing to own 100% of its Global Networks business. All other terms and conditions of the offer remain unchanged.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThe UK economy is in a better place than the media narrative suggests,\u201d says Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services.<\/p>\n He explaiins:<\/p>\n Inflation is coming down as administrative price pressures ebb, and the recent budget measures will likely see CPI fall well below the BoE\u2019s 2.0% target (sub 1.5% by mid-2026??). The growth outlook is not great, something around 1.0-1.5% for the next couple of years, but a lot better than the media narrative which sounds as though the country is in a long-standing recession.<\/p>\n To be sure the current government is a shambles, unable to formulate any form of cohesive policies, above all due to very deep ideological divisions in the Labour party, as well as being able to seize defeat at every possible opportunity. UK assets remain cheap on a relative basis, but with hefty competition from the likes of the US and China in industrial policy and incentive terms, a relatively small economy that is not aligned with any economic bloc, and many infrastructure hurdles and deficits, it is difficult to see how a bigger boost could materialize in he near term.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>China hits EU dairy products with provisional duties up to 42.7%<\/p>\n China has announced new tariffs against Europe\u2019s dairy industry.<\/p>\n Beijing will impose provisional duties of up to 42.7% on certain dairy products imported from the European Union, the Ministry of Commerce announced today, saying it had found evidence that EU dairy imports were subsidised and hurting Chinese producers.<\/p>\n The move follows the first phase of an anti-subsidy probe conducted by China, following Europe\u2019s new tariffs on electric cars.<\/p>\n The tariffs will range from 21.9% to 42.7%, although most companies will pay around 30%, and they target products like milk and cheese, including the iconic French blue cheese Roquefort.<\/p>\n Reuters has more details:<\/p>\n Roughly 60 firms, including Arla Foods, owner of brands like Lurpak and Castello, will pay tariffs between 28.6% to 29.7%.<\/p>\n Italy\u2019s Sterilgarda Alimenti SpA will pay the lowest rate of 21.9% while FrieslandCampina Belgium N.V. and FrieslandCampina Nederland B.V. will pay the highest rate of 42.7%.<\/p>\n Firms that did not participate in the investigation will pay the highest rate.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Fuel retailers accused over “persistently high\u201d margins<\/p>\n UK fuel retailers are being accused of inflicting \u2018rocket and feather\u2019 pump pricing on drivers in the lead-up to Christmas.<\/p>\n The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is warning this morning that fuel margins remain high, despite falling pump prices in the past year.<\/p>\n The CMA\u2019s first road fuel monitoring annual report has found that changes in operating costs were not a driver of increases in average fuel margins, despite claims from retailers that costs have been rising, and need to be passed on.<\/p>\n The CMA also found that pump prices have reduced significantly since it completed a Market Study into the fuel sector in July 2023, largely due to reductions in the price of crude oil and refining spreads.<\/p>\n But while average retail spreads have reduced, they remain significantly above historic 2015-19 averages in real terms.<\/p>\n Drivers body the AA says retailers are overcharging drivers, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cSince the third week of November, the wholesale cost of petrol has crashed more than 7p a litre. With the VAT at the pump, that should be a saving of 8.4p or \u00a34.60 a tank. Instead, the average petrol pump price has fallen just two-thirds of a penny.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is classic \u2018rocket and feather\u2019 pricing at the pumps and the bane of UK drivers. This time it comes as millions of drivers take to the road for Christmas and are being overcharged for their fuel.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK’s Harbour Energy enters Gulf of Mexico with $3.2bn LLOG deal<\/p>\n North Sea-focused oil and gas producer Harbour Energy is branching out into the Gulf of Mexico.<\/p>\n Harbour has agreed a deal to buy deepwater oil and gas exploration and production company LLOG Exploration for $3.2bn, a deal that will boost its fossil fuel output.<\/p>\n The acquisition will help Harbour\u2019s overall production reach about 500,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of the decade, and be accretive to free cash flow from 2027, the company said.<\/p>\n However, the City may have concerns \u2013 shares in Harbour have dropped by over 5%, making it one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE<\/a> 250 share index.<\/p>\n LLOG has been looking for a buyer following the death of founder Gerald Boelte last year.<\/p>\n The company was one of the winners from the US government\u2019s first sale of oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf since 2023 earlier this month.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n One piece of good news in today\u2019s UK national accounts report \u2013 business investment was strong than first estimated.<\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics now believes business investment increased by 1.5% in the third quarter of this year, revised up from the first estimate fall of 0.3%.<\/p>\n This means business investment is now 2.7% higher compared with the same quarter a year ago.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The drop in UK household savings in the last quarter may suggest people grew slightly less wary about spending.<\/p>\n Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, explains:<\/p>\n The household saving rate fell to 9.5% in Q3, from 10.2% in Q2, suggesting that consumers were fractionally less cautious than the ONS previously assessed, and consistent with the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25bp in August.<\/p>\n The statisticians also revised down their estimate of the saving rate in Q2 to 10.2%, from 10.7% before, continuing a now-reliable pattern in the data of repeated downward revisions<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Shares in gambling group Rank have dropped by over 7.5% after being hit by a payment fraud in Spain.<\/p>\n Rank told the City this morning that its Spanish businesses, Enracha and Yo, have been the victim of a payment fraud, totalling around \u20ac7.1m.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The big picture from today\u2019s UK GDP report<\/a> is that the economy is fragile, and dependent on the public sector to drive growth, says Matt Swannell, chief economic advisor to the EY ITEM Club.<\/p>\n Swannell explains:<\/p>\n \u201cThe quarterly national accounts left Q3 GDP growth unrevised at 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, and very small revisions to prior quarters essentially left the bigger picture unchanged. The expenditure breakdown was slightly more encouraging than before, with consumer spending growth now marginally higher in Q3 and a string of upward revisions leaving the recent performance of business investment looking much healthier.<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, looking at the past few years, it is evident that growth has relied heavily on the public sector. UK GDP has increased by 2.4% since the end of 2022, with government consumption and investment contributing 1.7ppts. Current spending plans should sustain the public sector\u2019s significant role in 2026, but the absence of a sustainable growth driver remains a problem for the UK economy.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The oil price is rising this morning as tensions escalate between the US and Venezuela.<\/p>\n Brent crude is up 0.9% at $61 per barrel.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n There\u2019s no sign of Santa in the City of London this morning.<\/p>\n The FTSE<\/a> 100 share index has dipped in early trading, down 32 points or 0.3% at 9,865 points, after ending last week at a record closing high.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics has also revised up its estimate of UK growth in October-December 2024, from 0.2% to 0.3%.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s cancelled out by the downgrade to growth in April-June 2025, from 0.3% to 0.2%.<\/p>\n And the big picture is that that growth over the last two years is a little slower than previously thought.<\/p>\n The ONS explains:<\/p>\n The level of real GDP in Quarter 3 2025 compared with Quarter 4 2023 is now estimated to be 2.9% higher, revised down slightly from the first estimate of 3.0%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Shares in precious metals producers are rising in early trading, after silver and gold hit record peaks this morning.<\/p>\n Endeavour Mining (+2.4%) and Fresnillo (+1.6%) are among the top risers on the FTSE<\/a> 100 share index in early trading.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK household savings ratio falls<\/p>\n Today\u2019s UK national accounts shows that the Household Saving Ratio decreased this quarter by 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%.<\/p>\n That was due to a fall in non-pension saving, an indication that people put less money aside in the July-September quarter.<\/p>\n The households\u2019 saving ratio is estimated to be 9.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2025 down from 10.2% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2025. pic.twitter.com\/EKMoxVhL0l<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Office for National Statistics (ONS) (@ONS) December 22, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy, points out that savings levels are still relativel high, an indication that people are cautious:<\/p>\n Although the household saving ratio edged down to 9.5% from 10.2% in Q2, amid a fall in real household disposable income, it remained well above its pre-pandemic 2015-19 average of 5%-6%. Households and firms alike continue to behave cautiously.<\/p>\n Household debt as a share of income stood at 116.9% in Q3, close to its lowest level since 2002, while the stock of corporate bank debt relative to profits was close to a 25-year low.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK economic growth slows as ‘spectre of recession begins to loom’<\/p>\n The UK economy has grown more slowly than thought during 2025, sparking new concerns that recession fears could loom over Britain.<\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics has revised down its estimate for growth in the second quarter of 2025, from 0.3% to just 0.2%.<\/p>\n That follows 0.7% growth in Q1.<\/p>\n The latest GDP quarterly national accounts also confirm that the UK economy only grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of this year, matching its first estimate, and confirming that the economy slowed after a decent start to the year.<\/p>\n Today\u2019s report also shows that real GDP per head failed to grow in the July-September quarter, and was 0.9% higher than a year ago.<\/p>\n Britons became poorer too, once you account for inflation \u2013 real household disposable income per head decreased by 0.8% in Q3, following no change in Q2.<\/p>\n ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown says:<\/p>\n \u201cToday\u2019s updated figures paint the same picture as our initial estimate, with growth continuing to slow in the third quarter. Growth in services were partially offset by falls in production, with a marked drop in car manufacturing.<\/p>\n That drop in auto output was due to the cyber-attack at Jaguar Land Rover in September.<\/p>\n [Reminder: we learned earlier this month that the economy sank slightly in October too<\/a>]<\/p>\n Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, warns that the UK economy is \u201cgrinding to a halt\u201d as growth slows.<\/p>\n \u201cGoing forward, November\u2019s Budget measures will do nothing for growth after the OBR forecasted zero impact from the policies introduced at the despatch box.<\/p>\n Instead, the government is going to have to hope that previous measures taken to date begin to bear fruit, or that geopolitical challenges calm down enough that global trade can rebound.<\/p>\n Unfortunately, neither seems particularly encouraging right now and as such the first half of next year is likely to be more of the same, if not worse with the spectre of recession beginning to loom.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a003.17 EST<\/p>\n Gold was already on track for its best year since 1979, and is up 68% since 1 January.<\/p>\n Some economists have predicted previous metals will keep rising next year \u2013 but others aren\u2019t convinced.<\/p>\n Capital Economics told clients:<\/p>\n Gold prices may be widely expected to keep hitting record highs in 2026, but we\u2019re not convinced. We expect fundamentals to reassert themselves, pulling prices back to $3,500 an ounce by year end. So goes gold, so goes silver: the end of the speculative boom in the former will also kill off the stunning recent rally in the latter.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Introduction: Gold and silver hit record highs<\/p>\n Good morning and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.<\/p>\n