\n Greene said that these attacks have already shifted the views of many in Europe, even if some politicians remain unwilling to name them outright as hybrid warfare.\n <\/p>\n
\n \u201cI think that people are spooked, particularly as this becomes more visible,\u201d he said. \u201cWe see drones outside airports, and I think that there is a growing sense that it is probably (only) a matter of time before one of these drones brings down an airliner.\u201d\n <\/p>\n
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\n While Moscow has not carried out any direct attacks against NATO allies in Europe \u2013 experts say this is partly because Russia knows it couldn\u2019t defeat<\/a> the alliance with its current capabilities \u2013 there are increasing signs that this could change in the future.\n <\/p>\n \n NATO\u2019s Secretary General Mark Rutte warned earlier this year that Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul echoed that warning in a speech last month, saying that German intelligence services believe that Moscow is \u201cat least keeping open the option of war against NATO by 2029 at the latest.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Russian President Vladimir Putin said in early December that while Russia is not planning to go to war with Europe, \u201cif Europe suddenly wants to go to war with us and starts, we are ready right now.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n The consensus among Baltic countries is that an attack against them could come as soon as in three years\u2019 time. When researchers at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs<\/a> at the Harvard Kennedy School looked into the warnings and predictions made by various officials about Russia\u2019s readiness and willingness to launch a war against NATO, they found that the most often mentioned years are 2027 and 2028.\n <\/p>\n \n Recognition of this threat has led NATO to develop contingency plans for how to defend against a possible Russian aggression against the Baltics.\n <\/p>\n \n But experts warn the alliance\u2019s plans don\u2019t stack up.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cThere\u2019s a plan, with numbers. But the governments are not taking the necessary steps to implement it. We are still planning based on things that don\u2019t exist,\u201d said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at RUSI. He highlighted the risk of trying to structure a defense response based on a wish list rather than reality, instead of accepting the resources that are available, and planning based on those.\n <\/p>\n \n The British government earlier this year asked three high-profile experts \u2013 former NATO chief George Robertson, Gen. Richard Barrons, former head of the Joint Forces Command, and Fiona Hill, a former senior director at the US National Security Council \u2013 to conduct a strategic review of UK defense. The trio presented it<\/a> with a manual on the steps needed to be ready for war.\n <\/p>\n \n Speaking at the RUSI event last month, Barrons said that the UK must rethink the resilience of its infrastructure, build up its armed forces, reserves and civil defense, and invest in its health service, industry and the economy, to allow a quick pivot to a war footing.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cWe frankly don\u2019t need much more analysis to tell us what it is we need to do. The problem is that we need to actually do it,\u201d he said. He points to \u201ccivil society and our politicians\u201d having other concerns as the reason for the lack of haste.\n <\/p>\n \n While the UK is moving in the right direction, he said, at the current pace it would take the country about 10 years to be ready for a war.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cAnd our analysis and our allies are saying to us, well, maybe you\u2019ve got three to five years\u2026 so this is a matter of will, societal as much as political, and then competence. Maybe we need to do better,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n \n Many European capitals, including London, have spent the past few decades barely thinking about defense. With no major direct military conflicts taking place on the continent since 1945, Europe has enjoyed the longest period of continuous peace in centuries.\n <\/p>\n \n These decades of relative calm came with a significant peace dividend. Successive governments were able to spend money on welfare instead of defense, making the lives of ordinary Europeans much more comfortable, while relying on the United States, the world\u2019s biggest military spender, to come to the rescue should the need arise.\n <\/p>\n \n Then came two harsh awakenings: a US president, in Donald Trump, who made it clear to NATO allies that they could no longer rely so heavily on the US, and Russia\u2019s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.\n <\/p>\n \n This upending of the status quo prompted most of NATO\u2019s European members to increase defense spending. According to data from NATO<\/a>, 31 of its 32 members are set to meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense this year \u2013 up from just six in 2021, the year before Russia launched its invasion. Iceland, a founding member of NATO and the only country that is not projected to meet the target, does not have its own armed forces. Instead, it contributes financially, with civilian personnel, and with air defense and surveillance systems.\n <\/p>\n \n NATO members agreed, in June, to increase the target to 5% of GDP by 2035. However, many analysts are skeptical about the goal \u2013 especially because most European countries are facing financial pressures even without thinking about a massive boost to their defense spending.\n <\/p>\n \n Explaining to voters that some resources might need to be reallocated, and that, perhaps, more people might need to serve in reserve or regular forces, is not something most politicians want to do.\n <\/p>\n \n Several Eurobarometer surveys, which measure public opinion across the European Union, this year showed that an overwhelming majority of Europeans \u2013 78%<\/a> \u2013 are concerned about the EU\u2019s defense and security in the next five years. A third of people<\/a> believe defense should be among the bloc\u2019s spending priorities.\n <\/p>\n \n Nonetheless, Gen. Fabien Mandon, France\u2019s armed forces chief, sparked outcry last month when he warned the French public that the country needed to steel itself for possible future losses against Russian aggression, saying France must \u201caccept losing its children\u201d<\/a> to \u201cprotect who we are.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n Robin Potter, an academy associate at the UK-based think tank Chatham House, said that the willingness of people across Europe to understand the threat \u2013 and to play part in countering it \u2013 varies significantly.\n <\/p>\n \n \u201cIf you\u2019re in the east, if you perhaps border Russia, if you\u2019re in Poland or in the Baltic states, the threat is very real for people there, and they are taking a lot more steps in terms of public shelters because they think the risk of an air attack is higher,\u201d he said.\n <\/p>\n![\"Russian](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-12-08t173807z-2014815308-rc2hciawm3nz-rtrmadp-3-russia-putin-csto.JPG\")
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