A roundup of what The Globe and Mail\u2019s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web<\/p>\n
Richard Bernstein, founder of RB Advisors sees 10 signs of an extreme speculative bubble,<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have pointed out many times that private client equity beta is at all-times highs. As of the end of June, private clients\u2019 equity beta was 1.5 for the top 10 holdings and 1.2 for the top 20 holdings. Both remain near the record levels of a few months ago … 2. Fund managers\u2019 risk appetite has increased by the most in history during the last 3 months. 3. 35 per cent of average daily volume is now in stocks with prices less than $54. Cryptocurrencies and meme coins continue to attract disproportionate capital … 5.An increasing number of companies are abandoning their basic business models to hoard cryptocurrencies … 6.Credit spreads remain close to 20-yearlows despite that the profits cycle appears poised to decelerate 7. Individual investors\u2019 use of zero-day options is at all-time highs and about 75 per cent of levered ETFs market capitalization is held by individual investors 8.Narrow breadth is back in vogue… 9. 70 per cent of long-only fund managers now own 6 of the Magnificent 7 stocks, which represents an all- time high. 10. Although not extreme, individual investors\u2019 stock allocations are above what is considered a \u201cnormal\u201d allocation” <\/p>\n
\u201cSpeculators should be wary. Investors should belicking their chops\u201d – RBAdvisors<\/a><\/p>\n **<\/p>\n BMO analyst Helen Amos detailed the \u201ccopper tarifftwist\u201d,<\/p>\n \u201cRight on the cusp of the U.S. 50-per-cent copper tariff enforcement date (1st Aug), the market has received long awaited detail on product scope. The big shock in all of this is that refined copper will not be included at all, triggering a rapid correction in the COMEX price towards LME, as prior bets on tariff implementation evaporated. Downside risk to COMEX remains as traders holding stock sell onto exchange and speculative long positions on futures are taken off. Chinese buying still holds the key for LME prices, already reflecting dwindling U.S. imports since mid-July. Thresholds set under the Defense Production Act on the share of copper \u201cinputs\u201d that must stay in-country should have little bearing on product flows, as scrap (40 per cent), ore (70 per cent), and cathode (90 per cent) domestic share already exceed the initial 25-per-cent minimum requirement. However, ambiguity around the exact definition of \u201chigh-quality scrap\u201d leaves question marks” <\/p>\n **<\/p>\n Scotiabank analyst Paul Cheng assessed reaction to new U.S. sanctions against buying Russian oil, which significantly affect India,<\/p>\n \u201cTAKE: Positive. This morning (07\/30), President Trump announced a 25-per-cent tariff on India and also an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil. This comes on the heels of yesterday\u2019s (07\/29) announcement by the Administration to have given Russia a 10-day deadline to broker a ceasefire with Ukraine. Although the US-India trade deal is still being negotiated and thus there is no definitive agreement on the size of tariff nor other details, the President\u2019s announcement and threats have nevertheless raised the question of its potential impact on the oil market. Since the start of Russia\/Ukraine war, India has drastically ramped up oil imports from Russia, from essentially zero to now ~2 million barrels per day (mmbbl\/d). Russia has become the largest source of Indian oil imports, while India also ranks among the top 2 importers of Russian oil. Thus, the Trump Administration\u2019s threat naturally has triggered two separate but related questions: (1) will India be able to replace oil imported from Russia and (2) what is the overall impact on the oil market? The short answer to the first is yes and no. It depends on whether the Administration\u2019s new proposed penalty will be applied to other countries such as China as well as whether any penalty will be applied to Iran\u2019s oil importers\u201d <\/p>\n **<\/p>\n Bluesky post of the day: <\/p>\n AI SPENDING IS EATING THE US ECONOMY<\/p>\n Per @renmacllc.bsky.social\u2019s Dutta<\/p>\n \u201cSo far this year, AI capex, which we define as information processing equipment plus software has added more to GDP growth than consumers\u2019 spending\u201d [image or embed]<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Luke Kawa (@ljkawa.bsky.social<\/a>) July 30, 2025 at 10:21 AM<\/a><\/p>\n
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