NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:29 a.m. ET \u2014 Market closed (U.S. equities closed for the weekend)<\/p>\n
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) heads into the final trading week of 2025 with investors weighing a fresh burst of AI-deal headlines against familiar questions: how durable is the AI spending cycle, how intense will inference competition become, and what risks come with Nvidia\u2019s expanding web of partnerships and investments.<\/p>\n
With the market closed Sunday, NVDA\u2019s next real \u201cprice discovery\u201d moment comes when U.S. equity futures reopen Sunday evening and the cash session returns Monday morning.<\/p>\n
Where Nvidia stock stands heading into the next session<\/p>\n
Nvidia last traded around $190.53, following Friday\u2019s session, with after-hours quotes near $190.08. [1]<\/a><\/p>\n Wall Street\u2019s year-end backdrop matters here: thin holiday liquidity can amplify moves, especially in mega-cap momentum names like Nvidia.<\/p>\n The headline driver: Nvidia\u2019s Groq licensing-and-talent deal<\/p>\n The biggest catalyst in the last 48 hours remains market digestion of Nvidia\u2019s unusual arrangement with AI-chip startup Groq\u2014not a standard acquisition, but a non-exclusive licensing agreement paired with key executive and engineering hires.<\/p>\n Reuters reported that Nvidia agreed to license Groq\u2019s inference technology, and that Groq founder Jonathan Ross and Groq President Sunny Madra are among those joining Nvidia, while Groq continues operating independently under new CEO Simon Edwards. [2]<\/a><\/p>\n Why this matters for NVDA shareholders:<\/p>\n Inference is the next battleground. Nvidia dominates AI training hardware, but inference (running trained models cheaply and quickly) is increasingly competitive\u2014pressuring pricing power and potentially margins as specialized chips proliferate. [3]<\/a>It\u2019s also about antitrust structure. The deal\u2019s form (licensing + hires) fits a broader Big Tech trend of acquiring technology and talent without formal takeovers\u2014often viewed as a way to reduce regulatory friction. [4]<\/a><\/p>\n One widely circulated takeaway from the Reuters report came from Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who flagged the regulatory angle. In a note cited by Reuters, Rasgon wrote that \u201cAntitrust would seem to be the primary risk here\u201d while the non-exclusive structure may preserve the \u201cfiction of competition.\u201d [5]<\/a><\/p>\n New wrinkle Sunday: how the Groq payouts may work<\/p>\n Axios added fresh detail Sunday on the deal\u2019s economics for Groq stakeholders, describing it as a roughly $20 billion arrangement that can generate distributions for many Groq shareholders even though \u201cno equity is changing hands,\u201d and noting that a large share of Groq employees are expected to join Nvidia. [6]<\/a><\/p>\n For NVDA investors, this reinforces the market\u2019s interpretation that Nvidia is paying real money to secure strategic inference IP and specialized talent\u2014just in a structure that stops short of a full merger.<\/p>\n The key bull vs. bear debate<\/p>\n Bull case: Nvidia is proactively defending its AI franchise as workloads shift toward inference. By pulling Groq\u2019s know-how into its ecosystem, Nvidia can keep more of the inference stack compatible with its software and platform strategy, limiting customer drift toward rival accelerators. [7]<\/a><\/p>\n Bear case: Some analysts have raised the risk that expanding into inference-specific architectures could pressure Nvidia\u2019s industry-leading margins if pricing becomes more competitive or if Nvidia leans into lower-margin configurations to hold share. [8]<\/a><\/p>\n Another narrative gaining traction: scrutiny of Nvidia\u2019s deal-making model<\/p>\n Separate from Groq, a prominent weekend read from The Guardian spotlights investor concerns about the structure of some AI-era relationships\u2014particularly arrangements likened to vendor-financing dynamics, where capital flows can be circular across the AI supply chain.<\/p>\n The Guardian quoted tech investor James Anderson saying the phrase \u201cvendor financing\u201d doesn\u2019t make him feel comfortable, even while expressing admiration for Nvidia. [9]<\/a> Investors don\u2019t need to accept the most bearish framing to recognize the takeaway: sentiment around NVDA can swing quickly based on whether markets view these deals as smart ecosystem-building\u2014or as risk transfer that could surface later in a downturn.<\/p>\n Wall Street targets and forecasts: where analysts see NVDA over the next year<\/p>\n On the Street, the tone remains broadly constructive:<\/p>\n Benzinga data shows Nvidia\u2019s consensus rating: Buy, with a consensus price target around $260.61, a high target of $352, and a low of $195. [11]<\/a>Benzinga also lists three of the most recent published ratings (dated Dec. 26, 2025) from:Vivek Arya (BofA Securities) \u2014 price target $275Tristan Gerra (Baird) \u2014 price target $275Stacy Rasgon (Bernstein) \u2014 price target $275 [12]<\/a>The same Benzinga page attributes the Street-high $352 target to Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis. [13]<\/a><\/p>\n The near-term market question is whether the next leg higher requires a new catalyst\u2014such as evidence that inference competition is being contained\u2014versus a simple year-end momentum bid.<\/p>\n What investors should know before the next session opens<\/p>\n Because the U.S. stock market is closed Sunday, NVDA investors should focus on three practical items before Monday:<\/p>\n 1) Futures reopen Sunday evening \u2014 watch the tone into Monday<\/p>\n U.S. equity index futures typically reopen Sunday evening, which can shape Monday\u2019s open, especially after headline-heavy weekends. CME materials list equity index futures trading hours beginning Sunday at 6:00 p.m. ET (with an overnight session structure). [14]<\/a><\/p>\n 2) Monday kicks off a data-heavy, holiday-shaped week<\/p>\n Investopedia\u2019s week-ahead calendar highlights several macro releases that can move rates and high-duration growth stocks\u2014often including megacap tech and semis\u2014such as Pending Home Sales (Monday), Case-Shiller (Tuesday), and December FOMC minutes (Tuesday), plus jobless claims (Wednesday). [15]<\/a><\/p>\n Meanwhile, end-of-year scheduling matters:<\/p>\n Stock markets are closed Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026 for New Year\u2019s Day, and investors still get a full trading day on Wednesday, Dec. 31 (while the bond market closes early). [16]<\/a>Kiplinger also flagged a generally quiet week for major earnings releases, which can leave markets more sensitive to macro and positioning flows. [17]<\/a>3) Know the exact trading windows for any \u201cheadline reactions\u201d<\/p>\n If new Groq-related details\u2014or other Nvidia headlines\u2014hit outside regular hours, they can still move NVDA in extended trading:<\/p>\n Nasdaq notes pre-market trading is 4:00\u20139:30 a.m. ET and after-hours is 4:00\u20138:00 p.m. ET. [18]<\/a>NYSE materials similarly describe the core session as 9:30 a.m.\u20134:00 p.m. ET with a late trading session running into the evening. [19]<\/a>Bottom line for NVDA heading into Monday<\/p>\n Nvidia enters the next session with momentum tied to AI\u2014yet the market is increasingly discriminating between training dominance and inference economics. The Groq licensing-and-talent deal is being read as a strategic move to protect Nvidia\u2019s platform as inference becomes the bigger, more competitive slice of AI compute. [20]<\/a><\/p>\n Into Monday, NVDA\u2019s trade is likely to hinge on:<\/p>\n whether investors view this deal structure as smart defense (platform reinforcement),or as a sign that inference pressure is real enough to force Nvidia into new architectures and potentially tougher margin math. [21]<\/a><\/p>\n This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.<\/p>\n References<\/p>\n 1. www.benzinga.com<\/a>, 2. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 3. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 4. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 5. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 6. www.axios.com<\/a>, 7. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 8. www.barrons.com<\/a>, 9. www.theguardian.com<\/a>, 10. www.theguardian.com<\/a>, 11. www.benzinga.com<\/a>, 12. www.benzinga.com<\/a>, 13. www.benzinga.com<\/a>, 14. www.cmegroup.com<\/a>, 15. www.investopedia.com<\/a>, 16. www.investopedia.com<\/a>, 17. www.kiplinger.com<\/a>, 18. www.nasdaq.com<\/a>, 19. www.nyse.com<\/a>, 20. www.reuters.com<\/a>, 21. www.barrons.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:29 a.m. ET \u2014 Market closed (U.S. equities closed for the weekend) NVIDIA…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":374036,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[62,157783,276,277,49,48,1829,6494,121,61,6495],"class_list":{"0":"post-374035","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-ai-news","10":"tag-artificial-intelligence","11":"tag-artificialintelligence","12":"tag-ca","13":"tag-canada","14":"tag-investing","15":"tag-nvidia","16":"tag-stock-market","17":"tag-technology","18":"tag-wall-street"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=374035"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/374035\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/374036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=374035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=374035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=374035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
The same report cited Forrester analyst Charlie Dai warning that the concern is \u201csustainability,\u201d not legality, and that Nvidia could face exposure if AI growth slows. [10]<\/a><\/p>\n