The NFL\u2019s Coach of the Year award is simple. It typically serves as a mea culpa. We\u2019re sorry our preseason predictions about your team were wrong.<\/p>\n
In theory, it\u2019s a straight line: the coach who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it\u2019s a yearly argument about expectations and whether we\u2019re rewarding actual coaching or just the greatest surprise.<\/p>\n
But this year\u2019s race is a little different. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It\u2019s been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent also-rans all rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in a chaotic, fun year, he\u2019s up against five other exceptional candidates.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s how the ballot should shake out.<\/p>\n
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5<\/p>\n
Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you\u2019re halfway home.<\/p>\n
Ben Johnson hasn\u2019t just fixed Caleb Williams; he\u2019s unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given a chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That\u2019s not a hot streak \u2013 it\u2019s sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly turned himself over to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson\u2019s image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven\u2019t been there, he\u2019s been able to spin magic out of nothing.<\/p>\n
Johnson arrived in Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet \u2013 rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower \u2013 has paid off. That\u2019s rare for a first-year head coach. And it\u2019s rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations \u2013 and even exceeded them. He\u2019s proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.<\/p>\n
In a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this isn\u2019t a normal season!<\/p>\n
Where Johnson\u2019s candidacy comes (slightly) unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He\u2019s not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple of bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It\u2019s been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.<\/p>\n
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4<\/p>\n
Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He\u2019s another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career<\/a>. And he\u2019s also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.<\/p>\n