the absence of Lamar Jackson<\/a>, and stayed alive with the Browns\u2019 upset win over the Steelers.\u00a0<\/p>\nBut we start in Tampa, where the reeling Buccaneers take on the surprising Panthers.<\/p>\n
SI NFL Newsletter. Get MMQB’s Free Newsletter. dark. Sign Up<\/p>\n
Spread: Tampa Bay -2.5<\/p>\n
Key matchup: Bryce Young vs. Buccaneers\u2019 pass defense<\/p>\n
Key stat: Tampa ranks 21st in EPA per pass against (+0.01).<\/p>\n
Date, Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN<\/p>\n
If the Panthers are going to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2016, it\u2019ll be because Bryce Young steps up.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Young has been underwhelming once again this season, throwing for 2,745 yards and 21 touchdowns, both ranking in the bottom half of the league. He also has a one-man supporting cast on the perimeter with rookie Tetairoa McMillan catching 66 passes for 929 yards and seven touchdowns, while nobody else has 400 yards receiving.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Against the Buccaneers, Young will have his chances. Tampa is 21st in EPA per pass against (+0.01) and blitz heavy, checking in fifth with a blitz rate of 32.5% under coach Todd Bowles. He also has a fresh memory of the Bucs\u2019 defense, beating Tampa Bay in Week 16 by throwing for 191 yards and two touchdowns in a 23\u201320 victory.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Losing seven of its past eight games, Tampa Bay is reeling. The Buccaneers have been torched for at least 260 passing yards five times while allowing 27.3 points per game. In Week 18, Bowles will almost certainly pressure Young while stacking the box to take away the backfield tandem of Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard. It\u2019s Young\u2019s time.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Verdict: Carolina 23, Tampa Bay 19<\/p>\n
Spread: Seattle -1.5<\/p>\n
Key matchup: Christian McCaffrey vs. Seahawks\u2019 run defense<\/p>\n
Key stat: Seattle allows a league-low 3.7 yards per carry.<\/p>\n
Date, Time, TV: 8 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been a great year for Christian McCaffrey, and yet a tough one on the ground. The do-it-all back and 2023 Offensive Player of the Year might have another All-Pro campaign on his hands, but he\u2019s rushed for only 3.9 yards per carry, contributing heavily to San Francisco\u2019s 30th-ranked rushing attack at 3.8 YPC. However, McCaffrey has 2,069 total yards on 399 touches, both NFL highs this season.<\/p>\n
This weekend, McCaffrey and the 49ers will face the league\u2019s stingiest run defense, which holds opponents to 3.7 YPC. The advanced numbers paint an equally imposing picture for San Francisco, as Seattle is tops in EPA per rush allowed (-0.18) and eighth in stuff rate (18.2%).\u00a0<\/p>\n
For the 49ers, winning the game won\u2019t happen on the ground, but they need to be respectable with their ground attack. In its four losses, San Francisco hasn\u2019t gained more than 83 rushing yards while averaging 3.5 YPC. In their Week 1 win over Seattle, the 49ers amassed only 3.3 YPC but rushed for 119 yards in a committed effort.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Even if the rushing game is a slog at times, the Niners must keep pounding the rock to open up the passing lanes for Brock Purdy.<\/p>\n
Verdict: San Francisco 30, Seattle 27<\/p>\n
Spread: Baltimore -3.5<\/p>\n
Key matchup: Derrick Henry vs. Pittsburgh\u2019s front seven<\/p>\n
Key stat: The Steelers have permitted -0.02 EPA per rush, 20th in football.<\/p>\n
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n
For the Steelers to win the AFC North, the plan is simple: stop Derrick Henry.<\/p>\n
Henry is a modern marvel. He will turn 32 in January, and is in the midst of his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing campaign and seventh over the past eight years. He trails only James Cook and Jonathan Taylor this season with 1,469 rushing yards, highlighted by his 216-yard, four-touchdown performance on Dec. 27 to keep the Ravens alive in the playoff picture.<\/p>\n
In Baltimore\u2019s first matchup against the Steelers in Week 14, Henry carried the ball 25 times for 94 yards and a touchdown in a 27\u201322 loss. He\u2019ll need to be more explosive this time around for the Ravens to win on the road, whether it\u2019s Jackson or Tyler \u201cSnoop\u201d Huntley under center.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Pittsburgh has been an average team against the run this season. The Steelers are 20th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.02) while sitting 13th overall, allowing 111.6 rushing yards per game. Pittsburgh has been rock solid lately, though, surrendering only 176 rushing yards combined against the Dolphins, Lions and Browns over the past three games.<\/p>\n
If the Steelers can keep that momentum going, they\u2019ll very likely be hosting a wild-card game next weekend.<\/p>\n
Verdict: Baltimore 22, Pittsburgh 15<\/p>\n
More NFL on Sports Illustrated<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This weekend, 16 games will be played, but only three matter. The 2025 NFL regular-season finale is giving…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":383907,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-383906","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nfl","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-nfl","11":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=383906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/383906\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/383907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=383906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=383906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=383906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}