Will the last NBA star eligible for awards turn out the lights?<\/p>\n
As we approach the midpoint of the NBA regular season — on Thursday, the Atlanta Hawks<\/a> will become the first team to reach 41 games — the league\u2019s rule requiring 65 qualifying games for the biggest individual awards is making headlines for all the wrong reasons.<\/p>\n Nikola Jokic<\/a>\u2019s bid for a fourth MVP, which had him as a slight favorite over reigning winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/a>, almost certainly ended with a hyperextension of his knee last Monday. And although Victor Wembanyama<\/a> avoided serious injury, the two games he\u2019s missed since experiencing his own knee hyperextension on New Year\u2019s Eve could also prevent him from qualifying.<\/p>\n With three 2024-25 All-NBA picks already out of the mix (Tyrese Haliburton<\/a>, Jayson Tatum<\/a> and Jalen Williams<\/a>) and Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/a> also on the verge of missing too many games, this year\u2019s awards could have a very different look. All-NBA in particular is meaningful because of its impact on eligibility for supermax criteria. due to their impact on eligibility for supermax criteria.<\/p>\n Last season, Cade Cunningham<\/a> (All-NBA third team) and Evan Mobley<\/a> (both Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA second team) triggered escalators that increased their rookie extensions to 30% of the cap rather than the 25% that would otherwise be the maximum. We\u2019ll keep an eye on similar situations while running through the current leaders, contenders and long shots for each of the NBA\u2019s most prestigious individual honors — for now.<\/p>\n Scottie Barnes<\/a>, Toronto Raptors<\/a> Stephen Curry<\/a>, Golden State Warriors<\/a> Jalen Johnson<\/a>, Atlanta Hawks<\/a> Tyrese Maxey<\/a>, Philadelphia 76ers<\/a> Alperen Sengun<\/a>, Houston Rockets<\/a><\/p>\n Curry is the only player in this group with an All-NBA selection to his credit. And the pool of first-timers should only grow as additional players suffer injuries that knock them out of contention.<\/p>\n The player to watch from a financial standpoint is Detroit Pistons<\/a> center Jalen Duren<\/a>, who would be eligible for the 30% max criteria as a restricted free agent next summer if he makes All-NBA. Rarely is that provision relevant for free agents, but Duren opted against signing an extension before the October deadline and has now increased his value dramatically with a breakthrough fourth season. Nobody has more at stake from this year\u2019s awards.<\/p>\n Naturally, Duren is currently sidelined with an ankle sprain, though he\u2019s expected to miss only a week and previously had just four non-qualifying games.<\/p>\n All-NBA second team<\/p>\n Anthony Edwards<\/a>, Minnesota Timberwolves<\/a> Kawhi Leonard<\/a>, LA Clippers Donovan Mitchell<\/a>, Cleveland Cavaliers<\/a> Jamal Murray<\/a>, Denver Nuggets<\/a> Karl-Anthony Towns<\/a>, New York Knicks<\/a><\/p>\n Towns becomes an interesting candidate as injuries knock the NBA\u2019s top centers out of qualification. Although All-NBA balloting is now positionless, voters might seek to balance their lineups, and Towns is the top big man on track to qualify for awards.<\/p>\n All-NBA first team<\/p>\n Jalen Brunson<\/a>, New York Knicks<\/a> Jaylen Brown<\/a>, Boston Celtics<\/a> Cade Cunningham<\/a>, Detroit Pistons<\/a> Luka Doncic<\/a>, Los Angeles Lakers<\/a> Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/a>, Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a><\/p>\n The first team will have a very different look due to injuries. Of last year\u2019s five picks, Tatum is out due to his Achilles rupture, while Jokic (hyperextended left knee) will have a difficult time qualifying and Antetokounmpo can miss only one more game the rest of the season. (Antetokounmpo has only sat out 14 games thus far, but two of the games he suited up don\u2019t count because he left early due to injury.)<\/p>\n Wembanyama\u2019s calf strain sidelined him for 12 games of the 17 that the NBA\u2019s eligibility criteria allow. Last weekend\u2019s absence following a knee hyperextension made 14, and Wembanyama remains day-to-day with knee soreness. (He\u2019s also used up one of the two qualifying games with between 15 and 20 minutes played while on a minutes restriction after his absence.) I\u2019m no longer projecting him to be eligible.<\/p>\n The good news is Doncic is back in the mix after injuries ended his All-NBA first team streak last season. He and Gilgeous-Alexander are the easiest picks if eligible. I\u2019ve gone with Brunson and Cunningham on the assumption voters will reward winning, but Anthony Edwards<\/a> and Donovan Mitchell<\/a> have strong cases in their own right. It\u2019s doubtful that voters will reward so many guards, which gave Brown the edge for my last spot.<\/p>\n Coach of the Year<\/p>\n The favorite: J.B. Bickerstaff, Detroit Pistons<\/a><\/p>\n Contenders: Mitch Johnson, San Antonio Spurs<\/a><\/p>\n Long shots: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a>; Jordan Ott, Phoenix Suns<\/a>; Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat<\/a><\/p>\n Historically, Coach of the Year has tended to reward a combination of exceeding expectations and overall team success. That naturally points to Bickerstaff: Despite his Pistons not even being a trendy pick as the up-and-coming young team in the East (Atlanta and Orlando were), they\u2019re atop the conference.<\/p>\n If Detroit finishes first in the East, Bickerstaff is probably a layup pick. However, simulations using ESPN\u2019s Basketball Power Index still show the Knicks about as likely to finish in first place. That could open things up for Johnson, whose Spurs are in the wide-open fight for second in the West.<\/p>\n Nobody has outperformed expectations this season more than the Suns, but naturally, that\u2019s a bit easier to do for a team that was in the lottery last year. Still, a Phoenix playoff berth would make Ott a strong contender. If media actually voted for the best coach, Daigneault and Spoelstra would be favorites, but their teams won\u2019t likely exceed expectations enough to win the award.<\/p>\n Most Improved Player<\/p>\n The favorite: Deni Avdija<\/a>, Portland Trail Blazers<\/a><\/p>\n Contenders: Keyonte George<\/a>, Utah Jazz<\/a>; Jalen Johnson<\/a>, Atlanta Hawks<\/a><\/p>\n Long shots: Jalen Duren<\/a>, Detroit Pistons<\/a>; Ryan Rollins<\/a>, Milwaukee Bucks<\/a><\/p>\n This feels a bit like voters weren\u2019t paying close attention to Avdija\u2019s surge in the second half of last season, when he averaged 23.3 PPG, 9.7 RPG and 5.2 APG. Compared to that, Avdija\u2019s scoring and assists are both up as he\u2019s taken on a point forward role amidst the Blazers\u2019 backcourt injuries, but less remarkably so.<\/p>\n I\u2019d be more likely to reward George, who rated below-replacement by my wins above replacement player metric a year ago and now rates as an above-average starter. Even within the season, George has taken a leap, averaging 27.7 PPG in December — albeit with the help of 44% 3-point shooting that may be challenging to maintain.<\/p>\n Besides George, the other players who have truly improved their performance the most are in their second year, which voters don\u2019t typically like to reward. (No NBA sophomore has won Most Improved since Monta Ellis in 2006-07.) Johnson\u2019s candidacy might get a boost if the Hawks move on from Trae Young<\/a> and turn their offense over to him.<\/p>\n Sixth Man Award<\/p>\n The favorite: Jaime Jaquez Jr.<\/a>, Miami Heat<\/a><\/p>\n Contenders: Nickeil Alexander-Walker<\/a>, Atlanta Hawks<\/a>; Anthony Black<\/a>, Orlando Magic<\/a>; Naz Reid<\/a>, Minnesota Timberwolves<\/a>; Reed Sheppard<\/a>, Houston Rockets<\/a><\/p>\n Long shots: Collin Gillespie<\/a>, Phoenix Suns<\/a>; Ajay Mitchell<\/a>, Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a><\/p>\n It\u2019s amusing that the co-betting favorite for the Sixth Man award (Alexander-Walker) has started the vast majority of the season. When the Hawks have been at full strength on the perimeter, Alexander-Walker has come off the bench, filling in as a starter primarily in place of the injured Trae Young<\/a>.<\/p>\n Although Alexander-Walker would be a strong choice for the award, averaging a career-high 20.3 PPG and serving as an on-ball stopper, I\u2019m going to bet against him ultimately qualifying. After all, Alexander-Walker can (and has) fill in at any of the three perimeter spots. He also might just force his way into the starting five with his play. Atlanta is 14-14 in Alexander-Walker\u2019s starts and 1-6 with him as a reserve.<\/p>\n Black is in a similar spot, with his best production (19.2 PPG) coming in 14 starts. Given the strength of Orlando\u2019s starting five, Black won\u2019t likely usurp a spot, but he, too, fills in at multiple positions. That makes Jaquez (who leads all current qualifiers with 16.5 PPG), Reid (a career-high 14.5 PPG for the 2023-24 winner) and Sheppard (13.5 PPG and 3.4 APG) the safest combo of production and eligibility.<\/p>\n Rookie of the Year<\/p>\n The favorite: Cooper Flagg<\/a>, Dallas Mavericks<\/a>Contenders: Kon Knueppel<\/a>, Charlotte Hornets<\/a>; Derik Queen<\/a>, New Orleans Pelicans<\/a>Long shots: Cedric Coward<\/a>, Memphis Grizzlies<\/a>; VJ Edgecombe<\/a>, Philadelphia 76ers<\/a><\/p>\n In many years, Knueppel would be the heavy favorite for Rookie of the Year. He\u2019s averaging 19.3 PPG while shooting 43% from 3-point range and smashing records for fastest to various rookie long-distance milestones. Meanwhile, Queen would have been the clear leader a year ago, averaging 14 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 4.9 APG in 23 starts with above-average efficiency. Unfortunately, this is no ordinary rookie class.<\/p>\n After a slow start playing out of position at point guard, Flagg averaged 23.5 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 4.8 APG in December while shooting 54% from the field and filling out the box score on defense. He\u2019s now the heaviest favorite for any individual award at DraftKings with minus-550 odds.<\/p>\n Defensive Player of the Year<\/p>\n The favorite: Chet Holmgren<\/a>, Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a><\/p>\n Contenders: Bam Adebayo<\/a>, Miami Heat<\/a>; Victor Wembanyama<\/a>, San Antonio Spurs<\/a><\/p>\n Long shots: Scottie Barnes<\/a>, Toronto Raptors<\/a>; Draymond Green<\/a>, Golden State Warriors<\/a>; Evan Mobley<\/a>, Cleveland Cavaliers<\/a>; Amen Thompson<\/a>, Houston Rockets<\/a><\/p>\n Advanced metrics predictably have Wembanyama as the most impactful defender in the NBA on a per-possession basis. There\u2019s not much consensus on No. 2, with several members of the Thunder splitting credit for their top-ranked defense. Holmgren is the safest choice, which explains why he actually has the lowest odds at DraftKings factoring in the likelihood for Wembanyama failing to qualify. But things are wide-open enough that any number of other candidates could emerge between now and April.<\/p>\n Because Wembanyama was not eligible for awards last season, whether he wins Defensive Player of the Year or makes an All-NBA team actually has no impact on his rookie extension. Wembanyama\u2019s eligibility for the 30% max will be determined by the 2026-27 season, since back-to-back awards are required to guarantee qualification heading into the last season of a player\u2019s rookie contract.<\/p>\n Incidentally, winning Defensive Player of the Year would make Holmgren eligible for up to 30% of the cap on his rookie extension. However, the deal Holmgren signed last July does not include an escalator, so he is locked in at 25% of the cap.<\/p>\n Most Valuable Player<\/p>\n The favorite: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/a>, Oklahoma City Thunder<\/a><\/p>\n Contenders: Luka Doncic<\/a>, Los Angeles Lakers<\/a><\/p>\n Long shots: Jalen Brunson<\/a>, New York Knicks<\/a>; Cade Cunningham<\/a>, Detroit Pistons<\/a>; Nikola Jokic<\/a>, Denver Nuggets<\/a>; Victor Wembanyama<\/a>, San Antonio Spurs<\/a><\/p>\n Jokic\u2019s left knee injury upended what looked like a two-player race for MVP between last season\u2019s top two finishers. Although Jokic finished behind Gilgeous-Alexander in the first installment of the MVP straw poll by ESPN\u2019s Tim Bontemps, DraftKings had Jokic as a narrow favorite before the Nuggets star hyperextended his knee on Dec. 29.<\/p>\n Now, Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite to repeat, which would actually mark a first: the leader in the first straw poll has yet to go on to win the award.<\/p>\n It\u2019s not yet official that Jokic is out of the mix, but qualifying will be a challenge. He\u2019d have to return to the Nuggets\u2019 lineup by Jan. 30 — days after the four-week mark at which he\u2019s scheduled to be reevaluated — and not miss a game the rest of the season.<\/p>\n That leaves Doncic with the second-best odds for MVP. He\u2019s performed at that level individually, but I\u2019m skeptical of the Lakers\u2019 chances of remaining in the top six, which is probably a necessary bar for him to threaten Gilgeous-Alexander. Their 21-11 record has been propped up by an undefeated record in clutch games. The Lakers\u2019 minus-0.4 point differential ranks eighth in the West, behind the Golden State Warriors<\/a>, and that tends to be a better predictor going forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Will the last NBA star eligible for awards turn out the lights? As we approach the midpoint of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":389716,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[434],"tags":[44620,44619,44616,49,48,459,82],"class_list":["post-389715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-2024-nba-draft","tag-2024-nba-rookies","tag-2025-26-nba-season","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nba","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/389715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=389715"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/389715\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/389716"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=389715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=389715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=389715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}