Accounting and consulting giant Deloitte has not changed its latest crude oil price forecasts for 2026 and beyond in response to the U.S. raid on Venezuela that led the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n
The situation roiled shares of oil producing companies on Monday<\/a>, as investors weighed the potential impact of the country\u2019s heavy oil industry ramping up exports under American control. Industry analysts are now downplaying the potential impact on global prices.<\/p>\n The February 2026 contract for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F<\/a>)\u00a0crude closed about 1.74 per cent higher on Monday, and continued to rise on Tuesday.<\/p>\n In a new report, Deloitte calls for WTI to stay range-bound in 2026, averaging US$58 a barrel, before rising to US$61.20 in 2027, and US$67.65 in 2028. The estimate for 2026 is about 20 per cent lower than it was at this time last year, and about 12 per cent below the commodity’s 2025 average.<\/p>\n Deloitte also left its forecast for Western Canadian Select (WCS) unchanged on Tuesday as a result of the situation in Venezuela. WCS is Canada\u2019s main heavy oil benchmark.<\/p>\n On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he continues to \u201csee the competitiveness of Canadian oil<\/a>,\u201d while welcoming the prospect of greater economic prosperity in Venezuela.<\/p>\n Monday saw shares of major Canadian oil producers slide as investors weighed the prospect of Venezuelan oil competing with Canadian exports to satisfy U.S. demand. Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO<\/a>)(CNQ<\/a>) saw its stock close over six per cent lower in Toronto. The iShares S&P\/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG.TO<\/a>), a basket of big Canadian oil stocks, sank 3.4 per cent. It was a different story for U.S. oil majors. Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM<\/a>), Chevron (CVX<\/a>), and ConocoPhillips (COP<\/a>) ended the day higher.<\/p>\n Many Canadian oil stocks saw modest gains in early trading on Tuesday.<\/p>\n Like many industry experts, Deloitte partner Andrew Botterill says it will take many years and a lot of money to materially revive Venezuela\u2019s battered oil industry.<\/p>\n \u201cCanadian [crude] volumes have had the benefit of not really having to compete with much of the Venezuelan volumes for the last five or so years,\u201d he told Yahoo Finance Canada on Monday.<\/p>\n \u201cThat competition may be back, but that\u2019s something that we have to worry about in five to 10 years from now,\u201d Botterill said.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom a fundamentals supply and demand [perspective], not a lot changed this weekend. What we did recognize is out on the horizon, there could be a reshaping of what mid-term and long-term supply and demand might be.\u201d<\/p>\n Oil market researcher Rory Johnston says China, not the United States, would likely absorb any short-term increases in Venezuelan oil exports.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the medium term, Venezuelan crude will reach the nearby U.S. Gulf Coast only once U.S. sanctions are repealed, or additional waivers are issued. This would put modest price pressure on other heavy sour grades, like Western Canadian Select and Mexican Maya,\u201d Johnston wrote in his Commodity Context newsletter on Monday evening.<\/p>\n \u201cIn the long term, Venezuela can obviously produce more oil \u2014 easily two to 2.5 [thousand barrels per day] over the next 5+ years \u2014 but it will take monumental investment from U.S. companies that have already been burned in this exact market.\u201d<\/p>\n Bart Melek, TD Securities head of commodity strategy, says U.S. intervention in Venezuela does not materially change his near-term outlook for oil.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect a limited impact from Venezuela’s most acute geopolitical crisis since 1902-1903, but reiterate the potential for geopolitics to structurally alter global energy market dynamics in 2026,\u201d Melek wrote in a research report.<\/p>\n Deloitte says the current oversupply in global oil markets is \u201cthe largest seen since the pandemic disruption.\u201d However, unlike the COVID-19 scenario, Botterill says the glut today is driven by rising supply, not shrinking demand.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we do see is a lot of non-OPEC countries growing [production], and that has really changed the supply and demand balance that we saw for the kind of three years before that,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat we\u2019re probably going to see from Canadian producers is we\u2019re going to see them being cautious in their budgets, and I think they are going to be careful in their investments, recognizing that we may have some downside price risk out there.\u201d<\/p>\n Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jefflagerquist<\/a>.<\/p>\n