{"id":392665,"date":"2026-01-06T23:02:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T23:02:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/392665\/"},"modified":"2026-01-06T23:02:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-06T23:02:15","slug":"forecasts-predict-lacklustre-oil-higher-alberta-gas-prices-in-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/392665\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts predict lacklustre oil, higher Alberta gas prices in 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

A pair of energy forecasts released Tuesday see lacklustre crude oil prices<\/a> continuing this year amid a global supply glut and natural gas prices picking up steam as more Canadian shipments make their way to Asia.<\/p>\n

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Consulting firm Deloitte expects West Texas Intermediate<\/a>, the key U.S. light oil benchmark, to average US$58 per barrel \u2014 about where it\u2019s trading at currently.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s about 20 per cent lower than it was at this time last year and roughly 12 per cent below the commodity\u2019s 2025 average.<\/p>\n

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has deferred some production increases, but \u201cwe do feel there\u2019s a little more downward pressure that could come into prices in 2026,\u201d said Deloitte Canada partner Andrew Botterill.<\/p>\n

The forecast doesn\u2019t account for the U.S. raid on Venezuela over the weekend in which President Nicolas Maduro was captured.<\/p>\n

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U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants American energy majors to take control of Venezuela\u2019s oil assets.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1:58
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWill the U.S. strike on Venezuela hit Canada\u2019s oil industry?\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

The South American country has massive oil reserves with a similar chemical makeup to Alberta\u2019s oilsands crude and refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast are well suited to handle that type of oil.<\/p>\n

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A lifting of U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan crude and a ramp up of production could pose a competitive threat to Canadian supplies in the Gulf Coast market.<\/p>\n

Botterill sees two different scenarios potentially playing out.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe turmoil of Venezuela itself may bolster some prices in the short term,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut on the flip side, we still are in a dramatically oversupplied system right now. So I don\u2019t think (companies) will have a lot of short-term effects.<\/p>\n

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\u201cBut it\u2019s certainly something that Canadian producers especially will be looking at into the mid- and long-term to understand some of their investments.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts at ATB Capital Markets, meanwhile, are expecting a WTI price of US$60 a barrel this year.<\/p>\n

Global oversupply should peak in the first quarter of this year, gradually improving to a much tighter market in 2027 and 2028 as U.S. shale producers burn through their top-performing wells.<\/p>\n

That should bode well for Canadian producers with long-life, quality assets.<\/p>\n

With the startup of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the West Coast in 2024, the price gap between heavy oilsands crude and WTI has \u201cstructurally evolved,\u201d as the ability to sell the resource in Asia has meant better returns for Alberta producers, the report said.<\/p>\n

\u201cEgress capacity out of the (Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin) is not expected to be an issue over the next few years,\u201d the ATB analysts wrote.<\/p>\n

The risk of Venezuelan barrels re-entering the U.S. market in meaningful amounts had been a risk percolating in the background prior to Maduro\u2019s capture, said Patrick O\u2019Rourke, managing director of equity research at ATB.<\/p>\n

Currently, Venezuela produces about a million barrels a day of oil and China is its biggest export customer.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThere\u2019s a lot of runway before you see significant volume growth there,\u201d O\u2019Rourke said of the time and investment needed.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk is that maybe those barrels come into the Gulf market that are going to China today at a price that undercuts Canadian barrels.\u201d<\/p>\n

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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t1:03
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFirst LNG tanker arrives in Kitimat, B.C.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/p>\n

For natural gas, ATB is expecting Alberta prices to strengthen to $3.30 per mmBTU this year from roughly $1.70 last year thanks in large part to the ongoing ramp up of the LNG Canada export terminal in Kitimat, B.C.<\/p>\n

The first cargoes left the plant last summer for Asia, but outbound volumes have been choppy until recently, O\u2019Rourke said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe haven\u2019t really quite yet realized the full impact of LNG Canada,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re hoping to see more consistent operations, more gas moving west.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Deloitte expects natural gas prices in Alberta to rise to $2.95 per mmBTU this year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat\u2019s just on the back of a far more balanced Canadian system,\u201d Botterill said.<\/p>\n

Botterill said demand from energy-hungry artificial intelligence data centres isn\u2019t being reflected in pricing yet, but it\u2019s something he\u2019s watching closely.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s a good news story for natural gas as a product, and there\u2019s definitely going to be more demand.\u201d<\/p>\n

NOTE: This is a corrected story \u2014 an earlier version said Deloitte was expecting natural gas prices in Alberta to rise to $2.95 per mmBTU next year.<\/p>\n

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