BRASILIA, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Brazil expects a trade surplus of $70 billion to $90 billion in 2026, after last year’s result topped government projections, the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services said on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Latin America’s largest economy posted a $68.3 billion surplus in 2025, down from $74.2 billion in 2024 as imports grew faster than exports, underscoring economic resilience despite high borrowing costs to curb inflation.<\/p>\n
Sign up here.<\/a><\/p>\n The figure beat the ministry’s most recent forecast of a $61 billion trade surplus, and followed a surplus of $9.6 billion for December.<\/p>\n “We are optimistic that even in a scenario of greater geopolitical instability, foreign trade will grow,” Vice President Geraldo Alckmin told a press conference.<\/p>\n BRAZIL HOPEFUL OF TRADE DEALSAlckmin, who also heads the ministry, said the government remains hopeful of concluding a trade deal<\/a> between Mercosur and the European Union and expects the South American bloc to seal a free trade agreement with the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n He added Brazil aims to expand preferential tariffs with India, Mexico and Canada.<\/p>\n Last year, imports jumped 6.7%, while exports rose 3.5%, even after the imposition of steeper U.S. tariffs on several goods, later partly reversed<\/a>.<\/p>\n Alckmin said Brazil also expects to advance talks with the U.S. and address non-tariff issues involving rare earths, big tech and data centers.<\/p>\n “The limiting factor for artificial intelligence in the world will be energy, and Brazil has abundant and renewable energy,” he said.<\/p>\n Asked about the potential impact of increased Venezuelan oil output following the capture<\/a> of Venezuela’s leader by the U.S., Alckmin acknowledged oil is Brazil’s top export but noted any market effect would not be immediate.<\/p>\n “Venezuela has large oil reserves, but things are not done overnight; investment is needed,” he said.<\/p>\n BY THE NUMBERS<\/p>\n In 2025, Brazilian export gains were driven by higher shipments, by value, of soybeans, beef, coffee and corn, offsetting annual declines in crude oil and iron ore amid falling commodity prices.<\/p>\n China remained Brazil’s top trading partner, with exports up 6% at $100 billion, nearly 30% of total overseas sales. Brazilian shipments to the United States, the second-largest destination, fell 6.6% to $37.7 billion.<\/p>\n Reporting by Marcela Ayres in Brasilia; Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab<\/a><\/p>\n
\nEditing by Franklin Paul, Matthew Lewis, Rod Nickel<\/p>\n