The Friday Four is a collection of thoughts and information on some intriguing storylines from around the NHL. On deck this week is:<\/p>\n
\u2022\u00a0Jets getting great value with Samberg\u2019s extension
\u2022\u00a0Hurricanes bet on Blake
\u2022\u00a0Timmins gets a nice raise
\u2022\u00a0Is this Grubauer\u2019s last chance?<\/p>\n
Despite\u00a0not winning the Stanley Cup, the Winnipeg Jets still took home a lot of hardware last season. Winnipeg won the Presidents\u2019 Trophy with the league\u2019s best record, and\u00a0goaltender\u00a0Connor Hellebuyck had a\u00a0campaign\u00a0for the ages, capturing the Hart, Vezina and Jennings trophies.\u00a0Hellebuyck was the main reason for Winnipeg\u2019s success, but the Jets would tell you those are team awards. Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey and a cast of others make the Jets one of the deepest teams in the league from top to bottom.\u00a0<\/p>\n
One name that doesn\u2019t get nearly enough credit for making the Jets the force that they are is Dylan Samberg. Like most defensive defencemen, Samberg often flies under the radar when it comes to praise due\u00a0to\u00a0his game being built more around efficiency than flash. You won\u2019t see Samberg on too many highlight reels, nor will you see his name appear on the scoresheet\u00a0regularly, but he\u2019s become an invaluable piece of Winnipeg\u2019s blue line and the three-year, $17.2 million extension he just inked should be an absolute steal\u00a0for the Jets.<\/p>\n
Nobody plays tougher minutes for Winnipeg than Samberg. Paired with Neal Pionk for the majority of the 2024-25 campaign, the duo played 727 minutes together at even strength and allowed just 23 goals against, all while typically facing the opposition\u2019s best line on most nights. Winnipeg also had 90 more scoring chances on the season than they allowed when the duo of Samberg and Pionk were on the ice. Samberg ultimately finished in the top-10\u00a0in the NHL\u00a0when it came to plus\/minus at plus-34.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Playing more of a shutdown role led to Samberg\u2019s minutes also taking a massive jump last year. After averaging around 15 minutes per game in his first three seasons, the 26-year-old shot up to more than 21 minutes a night in 2024-25.\u00a0Not to mention\u00a0the Jets leaned on him heavily when it came to the penalty kill. No\u00a0one\u00a0played more shorthanded minutes per game on the Jets than Samberg last season, skating nearly two and a half minutes while a man down. Dylan DeMelo was the only other Jet to crack the two-minute mark each night.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Perhaps most impressive, though, is how Samberg\u2019s absence impacted Winnipeg. Samberg missed 22 games last year due to injury and the Jets were significantly worse without him, going 11-9-2 when he wasn\u2019t in the lineup. They were essentially a .500 hockey team. However, in the 60 games Samberg played, Winnipeg went 45-13-2. Plus, it\u2019s worth noting that puck was going into the Jets’ net much more often without Samberg. Winnipeg allowed four or more goals 18 times in 2024-25 and seven of those games came when they were missing Samberg.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It’s such a luxury for the Jets to have somebody like Samberg on their blue line, as he helps all the other pieces fall into place. Morrissey gets to avoid more of the heavy minutes and is flourishing\u00a0offensively\u00a0playing with\u00a0DeMelo. Pionk has someone next to him he can trust and has now scored 10 goals in two of the past three seasons. Thanks to the emergence of Samberg, the Jets have a top-four that can rival anyone in the league, all locked in at reasonable prices for the next few seasons.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It’s always going to be hard for a player like Samberg to get the recognition he deserves, though that could be changing.\u00a0The gold standard right now for\u00a0shutdown\u00a0defencemen is Jaccob Slavin and he\u2019s become so good that there were even some stating there should be an award for the best defensive blue liner. Slavin\u2019s play at the 4 Nations made everyone take notice and while Samberg isn\u2019t on his level quite yet, if his game continues to evolve, more and more people are going to start appreciating his play.\u00a0He isn\u2019t going to fly under the radar much longer.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s safe to say the Carolina Hurricanes have a lot of faith in Jackson Blake.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Canes inked Blake to an eight-year deal worth $45 million last week, which includes some deferred money to get the AAV down a bit. It\u2019s an interesting bet by Carolina, who currently have a boatload of great value contracts. Nobody on the team makes $10 million and with a rising cap, players like Sebastian Aho, Nik Ehlers, Seth Jarvis, Andrei Svechnikov, Logan Stankoven and Slavin are locked up for years at great numbers. The only contract you could really quibble with is Jesperi Kotkaniemi\u2019s, as the Canes may never get adequate value out of that one, but you\u2019d be hard-pressed to find a team without at least one questionable pact on the books.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Blake\u2019s deal could end up joining the aforementioned group of borderline steals. When the $5.1 million cap hit kicks in for the 2026-27 season,\u00a0the cap will be well over $100 million. That\u2019s not a massive number to absorb if Blake can become a consistent 20-25 goal scorer.\u00a0Also, the cap is going to keep going up, and the second half of the deal could look even better.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That said, there\u2019s also the possibility that this deal backfires because of the term. Eight years is a lot to give a player that only has 81 games under his belt. Blake had 17 goals last season, which is a decent scoring rate and there\u2019s reason to believe he can better that, but how many players could deliver that production playing with Aho and Jarvis for most of the season? It\u2019s a very small sample size\u00a0and\u00a0the investment is\u00a0a bit of a departure for the typically conservative Canes.\u00a0<\/p>\n
There\u2019s no reason to believe Blake\u2019s deal won\u2019t age well at this point, though it still undeniably comes with some risk because the\u00a0soon-to-be\u00a022-year-old doesn\u2019t have a significant track record just yet.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The Buffalo Sabres\u00a0will hope to end their post-season drought in 2025-26 with some new faces on the right side of the blue line. Michael Kesselring is the biggest addition after coming over from Utah in exchange for JJ Peterka and then there\u2019s Conor Timmins, who was acquired by the Sabres in June from the Pittsburgh Penguins.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Timmins, who has been traded twice since March, inked a two-year deal worth $4.4 million last week with Buffalo. The $2.2 million AAV doubles his salary from the year prior and even though it\u2019s not a huge piece of the Sabres’ salary structure, it\u2019s likely going to be something we\u2019re going to have to wrap our heads around going forward with a rising salary cap.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At first glance, the deal seems a little rich for a 26-year-old defenceman now on his fifth team who has really only played close to one full season in the NHL.\u00a0Now there is definitely some offensive upside to Timmins\u2019 game and he can move the puck fairly well, but with a flat cap, he\u2019d be hard-pressed to get anything close to $2 million. With the cap\u00a0rising\u00a0quickly, though, the number seems more reasonable, especially for the second year of the deal.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Next season, the cap\u00a0jumps\u00a0to $95.5 million, then the following year it will hit $104 million, before landing at a whopping $113.5 million in 2027-28. So, if we look at year two of the Timmins deal, he\u2019s only going to account for 2.1 per cent of Buffalo\u2019s cap. That isn\u2019t a lot in the grand scheme of things and if you compare that to what 2.1 per cent of last year\u2019s $88 million cap would be, you\u2019re looking at around a $1.8 million contract.\u00a0That seems a lot more reasonable for Timmins,\u00a0but you can swallow the extra $400,000 if you\u2019re the Sabres since you know the cap is climbing.\u00a0<\/p>\n
With a flat cap, we were used to seeing skaters fighting for an everyday spot in the lineup typically making somewhere between the league minimum and a million bucks, which is why Timmins\u2019 deal raised an eyebrow or two when it was announced. Now we\u2019ll likely see more of these perceived slight overpays going forward for players in the lower half of rosters. It\u2019s going to be the new normal.\u00a0<\/p>\n