{"id":402987,"date":"2026-01-11T17:36:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-11T17:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/402987\/"},"modified":"2026-01-11T17:36:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-11T17:36:07","slug":"why-the-golden-globes-will-decide-the-final-2025-best-picture-lineup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/402987\/","title":{"rendered":"Why The Golden Globes Will Decide The Final 2025 Best Picture Lineup"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the BAFTA Longlists and the PGA nominations the other day, several Best Picture players have been put down. \u201cWicked: For Good<\/a>\u201d missing Best Ensemble at the Actor Awards and the PGA has doomed the popular film\u2019s chances for good. \u201cNo Other Choice<\/a>\u201d missing Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTA longlists means that the film no longer has an above-the-line category it could feasibly get into. \u201cJay Kelly<\/a>\u201d has been unlikely ever since the film, which revolves around the reflections of an A-list actor, blanked at the Actor Awards, but its poor performance on the BAFTA longlists and exclusion from the PGA 10 are two more nails in its coffin. \u201cAvatar: Fire & Ash<\/a>\u201d has been on shaky ground since missing the Critics\u2019 Choice nomination, and now it\u2019s missing the PGA to other box-office successes like \u201cF1<\/a>\u201d and \u201cWeapons<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

There are also bubble contenders whose strength was proven today. \u201cBugonia<\/a>\u201d is now solidly in Best Picture after its BAFTA longlist domination and PGA nomination. With its PGA nomination, \u201cTrain Dreams<\/a>\u201d similarly feels secure. Alongside \u201cFrankenstein<\/a>,\u201d \u201cHamnet<\/a>,\u201d \u201cMarty Supreme<\/a>,\u201d \u201cOne Battle After Another<\/a>,\u201d \u201cSentimental Value,<\/a>\u201d \u201cSinners,<\/a>\u201d we now seemingly have eight safe nominees in Best Picture. As a result, the films now in contention for the last two slots in Best Picture are \u201cBlue Moon,<\/a>\u201d \u201cF1<\/a>,\u201d \u201cIt Was Just an Accident,<\/a>\u201d \u201cThe Secret Agent,<\/a>\u201d and \u201cWeapons<\/a>.\u201d The Golden Globes this Sunday will be the next barometer of Best Picture strength, especially since Oscar voting begins Monday.<\/p>\n

The Globes are particularly critical for \u201cIt Was Just an Accident<\/a>\u201d and \u201cThe Secret Agent,<\/a>\u201d the two international films in contention for the last two Best Picture slots. While industry awards have largely ignored the feats of these international films, the Globes have been praised for their acknowledgment of international cinema across the board. If these films want to win anything big, it has to be here. Even though it has missed at the top category at all industry awards, \u201cIt Was Just an Accident<\/a>\u201d will probably get into Best Picture due to its status as a Palme d\u2019Or winner and its buzz in the category all season long. An Original Screenplay nomination also feels likely, considering the film\u2019s Film, Director, and Screenplay nominations at the Golden Globes. Though not secure, considering \u201cWeapons<\/a>,\u201d \u201cBlue Moon,<\/a>\u201d and \u201cThe Secret Agent<\/a>\u201d are also in the hunt for the last two slots in Original Screenplay. With BAFTA Longlist misses for both Best Film and Best Director, Panahi looks much weaker in Best Director than he did a few days ago. But a televised win in either Best International Film, Best Screenplay, or even Best Film \u2013 Drama could completely change that. If the widely beloved Jafar Panahi can deliver a heartfelt speech about what this recognition means to him, despite the challenges he faced in making the film, that goodwill could push him over the edge for a Best Director nomination.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Secret Agent<\/a>\u201d is on much shakier ground for a Best Picture nomination, but it does show signs of strength. The Casting shortlist at the Oscars, the Critics\u2019 Choice win for Best International Film, and the Golden Globe nomination in Best Film \u2013 Drama are all lovely feathers in its cap. It also helps that the film\u2019s lead, Wagner Moura, stands a strong chance at a nomination. What doesn\u2019t help, though, is that Moura missed out on a Best Actor nomination at the Actor Awards and a BAFTA longlist for the Same Category. Nonetheless, Moura is widely tipped to win the Globe due to how receptive voters were to the film and the passion he has for the role (i.e., his Best Actor win at Cannes). A Globe win here would help solidify a slot in the Best Actor lineup, as Globe winners in the Drama field rarely miss a nomination. \u201cThe Secret Agent<\/a>\u201d could then easily ride that added momentum to nominations for Best Original Screenplay and Best Picture. But if Moura loses the Globe, he could easily be usurped by Jesse Plemons in the Oscar lineup. And if Moura cannot get into Best Actor, \u201cThe Secret Agent\u2019s<\/a>\u201d chances in Best Picture are slim. That said, a Moura loss would not be the end of the world if \u201cThe Secret Agent<\/a>\u201d repeats its feat at the Critics\u2019 Choice Awards and wins International Film here. It would actually feel far more significant this time, since the film\u2019s director, Kleber Mendon\u00e7a Filho, would be able to deliver a speech.<\/p>\n

Finally, few were taking \u201cBlue Moon<\/a>\u201d seriously as a Best Picture contender until its surprise Golden Globe nomination in Best Film \u2013 Comedy. Ethan Hawke has always been a threat in Best Actor, especially since his film is being campaigned by Sony Pictures Classics. For those who are unaware, Sony Pictures Classics is a legendary acting campaigner at the Oscars. They were behind \u201cI\u2019m Still Here<\/a>\u201d landing nominations in Best Actress and, in the most shocking nod in the category in years, Best Picture! The Best Picture push could not have happened without Fernanda Torres\u2019s exciting Golden Globe win in Best Actress. It became undeniable how significant her nomination would be for Brazil, which has long been a beacon of cinema, and the film\u2019s momentum, plus its expert campaigning, propelled it into Best Picture. A narrative could also form around \u201cBlue Moon<\/a>\u201d should Hawke upset Timoth\u00e9e Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio and take home the Globe, a film that achingly captures how painful it is to love being an artist but never be recognized for it. He is an undeniably charismatic actor, and his Globe win could be the push \u201cBlue Moon<\/a>\u201d needs to surge as a Best Picture contender. With a package of Best Actor and potentially Best Original Screenplay, a Best Picture nomination suddenly becomes all the more likely.<\/p>\n

Should none of these wins happen, the case for \u201cF1<\/a>\u201d and \u201cWeapons<\/a>\u201d in Best Picture grows stronger, both of which landed PGA nominations on Friday. Both films have strong audience reception and could easily emerge as default picks in such a split race. \u201cF1<\/a>\u201d could get in entirely through its popularity and its below-the-line strength. It is win-competitive in Best Sound and Film Editing and has the possibility of showing up in other tech categories like Best Visual Effects, Original Song, and Cinematography for its haul. \u201cWeapons<\/a>,\u201d on the other hand, would hope to ride off on an Amy Madigan sweep in Best Supporting Actress and an Original Screenplay nomination. It doesn\u2019t hurt that the film has been nominated for Best Casting at both the Oscars and the BAFTAs! Ultimately, the Globes have the opportunity to give an extra boost to several Best Picture contenders currently on the bubble. Still, if they refuse, two populist picks could easily fill the open slots.<\/p>\n

What do you think will happen tonight for the Golden Globe Awards? What are you currently predicting to be nominated for Best Picture? Please let us know your thoughts on our X<\/a> account. Click\u00a0here<\/a> for more important upcoming dates this awards season and\u00a0here<\/a> for the most recent tally of awards season winners for the current year.<\/p>\n