{"id":413395,"date":"2026-01-16T15:37:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-16T15:37:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/413395\/"},"modified":"2026-01-16T15:37:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-16T15:37:07","slug":"texans-patriots-betting-preview-odds-lines-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/413395\/","title":{"rendered":"Texans-Patriots betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Available exclusively to PFF+ subscribers<\/a>, the PFF Player Prop Tool<\/a> harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster and more confident picks. Download the PFF app now \u2014 available on the Apple App Store<\/a> and Google Play Store<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Houston Texans<\/a> vs. New England Patriots<\/a> (-3) [Total: 41]<\/p>\n

Game Overview<\/p>\n

Riding a 10-game win-streak, the Texans continue their road playoff march following an emphatic wild-card victory over the Steelers<\/a>. Despite four turnover-worthy plays from quarterback C.J. Stroud<\/a>, the Texans broke the game wide open behind a pair of fourth-quarter defensive touchdowns, giving more credence to the phrase \u201cdefense wins championships.\u201d<\/p>\n

It comes as no surprise that DeMeco Ryans\u2019 defense has continued to play at a high level into January. The Texans lay claim to the NFL\u2019s second-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play while also limiting opposing offenses to the lowest scoring drive rate (27.6%) in the league.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That notion has invigorated bettors into piling money onto Houston\u2019s side, an angle PFF\u2019s model<\/a> agrees with, projecting an 8.8% expected value on the Texans’ moneyline projections.<\/p>\n

However, don\u2019t count out Drake Maye<\/a> and the Patriots just yet. New England is no slouch when it comes to high-octane offensive football. During the regular season, the Patriots produced the NFL\u2019s highest EPA per dropback mark. They pushed the ball down the field for chunk yardage, ranking atop the league in explosive pass play rate (18.1%).<\/p>\n

While the Texans maintain a strong defense, they have struggled to limit downfield receptions, having allowed the ninth-most completions on throws targeted 20 or more yards downfield (27).<\/p>\n

Explosive Pass (15-Plus yards) Rate<\/p>\n

TeamExplosive Pass RateNew England Patriots18.1%Los Angeles Rams17.9%Detroit Lions17.5%Green Bay Packers17.3%Seattle Seahawks17.2%<\/p>\n

Maye is well equipped to take advantage of those opportunities, particularly against the Texans’ single-high coverages. The Patriots signal-caller holds the third-highest PFF overall grade against single-high looks, which Houston runs at a top-10 rate.<\/p>\n

Best Bet: WR Jayden Higgins<\/a>, Houston Texans<\/a>: Over 3.5 receptions (+125)<\/p>\n

With wide receiver Nico Collins<\/a> still in concussion protocol, it\u2019s appearing more and more unlikely he\u2019ll be able to suit up for this matchup. Without their top receiving target, the Texans will rely on Jayden Higgins and Xavier Hutchinson<\/a> to fill the void in the passing game.<\/p>\n

Higgins has played well in his first year. Since Week 10, his 79.1 PFF receiving grade ranks 16th among 90 qualifying receivers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

At the few points when Collins hasn\u2019t been on the field this season, Higgins has stepped into the role and performed well with his opportunities, leading the Texans<\/a> in<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Available exclusively to PFF+ subscribers, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":413396,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[436],"tags":[49,48,514,82],"class_list":["post-413395","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nfl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413395","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=413395"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/413395\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/413396"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=413395"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=413395"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=413395"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}