{"id":417908,"date":"2026-01-18T19:29:09","date_gmt":"2026-01-18T19:29:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/417908\/"},"modified":"2026-01-18T19:29:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-18T19:29:09","slug":"how-should-the-oilers-deploy-their-defensive-pairings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/417908\/","title":{"rendered":"How should the Oilers deploy their defensive pairings?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As we near the 50-game mark of the 2025-26 NHL regular-season, the Edmonton Oilers<\/a> rank second place in the Pacific Division<\/a>. However, their overall performance certainly has significant room for improvement, particularly for the standards of a cup contender.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This season, the Oilers rank 23rd in the NHL in five-on-five goal differential, having been out\u2011scored 100 to 110 at five-on-five. Their power-play remains elite, and both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl continue to produce at sky-high rates, but several flaws in the team\u2019s even-strength game persist, issues that will need to be addressed if this is to be the season Edmonton lifts the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n

Much of the conversation this season has centred on Edmonton\u2019s goaltending instability and the immense struggles of the bottom\u2011six forwards<\/a>, and understandably so. However, I believe that has somewhat overshadowed another issue in the team\u2019s game: the defence.<\/p>\n

Per EvolvingHockey, the Oilers rank 19th in the NHL in scoring chances allowed per hour. Not nearly good enough for a cup contender. I would also argue that a significant contributing factor to their overall subpar goal differential has been the underwhelming performance of their defensive core in various areas, from puck-moving to defending in their own end.<\/p>\n

In this piece, I would like to take a closer look at Edmonton\u2019s defensive pairs<\/a> and how they could (and should) deploy them moving forward.<\/p>\n

*All stats via EvolvingHockey and Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise<\/p>\n

An overview of the defensive core\u2019s results thus far<\/p>\n

Here is a glance at the results of Edmonton\u2019s three defensive pairings at this point of the season:<\/p>\n

\"\"Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard have remained Edmonton\u2019s top-pairing, and they continue to produce strong possession results. A 56 percent expected goal share for a pairing consistently playing against the league\u2019s best is quite impressive. Their actual goal share is only +2, but it\u2019s largely the result of a poor PDO, which should eventually regress to the mean; in simpler terms, expect the actual goals to improve as the season goes on.<\/p>\n

That being said, while the raw possession and scoring chance numbers are strong, it\u2019s worth mentioning that they are not as dominant as they once were. In the prior three seasons, their xGoal% ranked at 60 percent, while their actual goal share was an even better 61 percent. Their high-danger chances allowed per hour rate has worsened from 9.3 to 10.7 this season. Of course, their current metrics are certainly not anywhere near bad by any means, but I do believe it is worth noting.<\/p>\n

Nextly, the second pairing, anchored by Darnell Nurse<\/a>, has been\u2026 not good. They have been tremendously out-scored at a rate of 21 to 37 at five-on-five, equating to an absolutely brutal 36 percent goal differential. Now, this pairing too has a low PDO, but considering that they have been both out-shot and out-chanced, they remain as a net negative by every metric.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Of course, this is nothing new for this team. The Nurse pairing has been a weak spot for years, and this season is certainly no different. However, one thing that has changed compared to prior seasons is the third-pair.<\/p>\n

Typically, the third-pairing has been quite reliable for the Oilers. In the prior seasons, they ranked at a solid 52 percent expected goal share, and an even better high-danger chance share of 55 percent. Much of this was due to Brett Kulak\u2019s fantastic play. Heading into this season, you couldn\u2019t ask much more out of a 3LD.<\/p>\n

But this season, the third-pairing, too, has been a net negative in both actual and expected goals. Kulak played perhaps the worst hockey of his tenure in Edmonton at the beginning of the season, and then in December, he was dealt alongside Stuart Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins. In his place, the Oilers have largely played Spencer Stastney<\/a>, and though he has shown some strong skating and zone exit abilities, his on-ice results are about average at best.<\/p>\n

In prior seasons, even considering the struggles of the second-pair, the excellent play from both their top and bottom defensive pairings has managed to outweigh this. But this season, the second-pairing has been worse than ever, the top-pairing has taken a slight step back, and the third-pairing has taken a significant step back. The net result is very mediocre results for the team overall.<\/p>\n

Now of course, a crucial member of Edmonton\u2019s defensive core has struggled and missed significant time: Jake Walman<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Walman has dealt with multiple injuries this season. He missed the first six games of the season, returning in mid-October, but sustained another injury in November, missing 23 consecutive games. Finally, he was activated from LTIR on January 13 and has suited up in Edmonton\u2019s three most recent games. Behind Bouchard, I would certainly say that Walman is Edmonton\u2019s second best puck-mover, and a healthy Walman could absoultely provide a huge boost to this defensive core.<\/p>\n

That being said, even in the 20 games that Walman has played this season, the Oilers have struggled to find a consistent spot for him. The initial plan was for him to start the season on the right side next to Nurse, but the Nurse \u2013 Walman pair\u2019s results have been awful, holding a 44 percent expected goal share. Scoring chances have been 125 to 75 in favour of the opposition with Nurse and Walman on-ice in over 200 minutes this season. Brutal.<\/p>\n

Simply put, if the Oilers are to improve\/fix their defensive core, it starts with finding some solution to the second-pairing one way or another.<\/p>\n

So, who should Darnell Nurse play with right now?<\/p>\n

Here is a look at Nurse\u2019s results with each of Edmonton\u2019s current defencemen this season:<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nThese are certainly some fascinating results, and perhaps even inspire some hope. Indeed, Nurse has struggled with Walman, and his results with Statsney are even worse; however, he has posted positive xGoal% results with each of the other four defencemen.<\/p>\n

Firstly, Nurse \u2013 Regula has been the most commonly deployed second-pair this season. On the one hand, they have been horrendously out-scored 6 to 17, equating to an ugly 26 percent goal share. But on the other hand, their possession and chance numbers are positive. The primary reason for the pair\u2019s low GF% was an extremely low four percent on-ice shooting percentage and 0.862 on-ice save percentage; though the pairing has been split up, they almost certainly would have improved over a larger sample.<\/p>\n

Nextly, Nurse has most recently been deployed next to Ty Emberson<\/a>, and though the sample is small thus far, the results have been quite good, with a 56 percent xGoal%. Certainly quite encouraging.<\/p>\n

Nurse has also put up fantastic results in limited minutes with Bouchard, and in terms of possession, this isn\u2019t anything new. They have a 62 xG% in over 330 minutes in the prior three seasons. But that being said, there are some caveats to note here.<\/p>\n

Firstly, much of the time the two have played together has been right after a PK alongside McDavid and Draisaitl; as a full-time pairing, they haven\u2019t played as consistently. And when they have\u00a0played together as a full-time pair, they have often produced a poor actual goal differential as a pair in the past, most notably when they were paired together at the start of the 2025 playoffs. A big reason for this is that both of them can struggle to defend the cycle and can be prone to making critical errors, leading to high-quality GA. Perhaps it is worth giving them a much larger sample to see what they can truly do, and they absolutely could succeed, but I have some doubts.<\/p>\n

And finally, Nurse also has strong metrics next to Ekholm. Of course, it\u2019s only about 48 minutes, but even in the 160 minutes they have spent in the prior three seasons, their xGoal% is at 60 percent. Considering that Ekholm did put up solid numbers at RD in Nashville, this could be a viable option with potential.<\/p>\n

Final Thoughts<\/p>\n

All things considered, there are several options for what the Oilers could do with the current defensive core.<\/p>\n

Firstly, they could stay put with what they have right now: Ekholm \u2013 Bouchard, Nurse \u2013 Emberson, and Walman \u2013 Stastney. If Nurse and Emberson can sustain their results, this is a good defensive core; however, that is a big \u201cif.\u201d While Emberson has been a solid defensive player for the Oilers, it is highly questionable if he can be a long-term solution in the top four heading into the playoffs.<\/p>\n

Secondly, they could try a top-pair of Nurse \u2013 Bouchard, allowing them to then have Ekholm and Walman either play together as a second-pair, or have each of them anchor their own pairings. This is an option with potential and could balance the top four. But, this is heavily dependent on the potential performance of Nurse \u2013 Bouchard and if they can sustain a strong goal differential as a full-time pair.<\/p>\n

Finally, and perhaps the most intruiging option option here, is to try pairings of Walman \u2013 Bouchard, Nurse \u2013 Ekholm, and Statsney \u2013 Emberson. If Ekholm can help to stabilize Nurse\u2019s defensive game on the right side, I could easily see the Oilers having great success with these pairs.<\/p>\n

Even giving Nurse \u2013 Walman another opportunity together is not a terrible\u00a0idea. They did have strong results together in limited minutes last season, and perhaps their results this season have been due to injuries.<\/p>\n

All-in-all, with a healthy Walman, the Oilers do have several deployment options with their defensive core. We\u2019ll see what the coaching staff ultimately decides to do.<\/p>\n

PRESENTED BY SOUTHVIEW ACURA\"\"<\/p>\n

At Southview Acura, luxury isn\u2019t just what you drive, it\u2019s how you\u2019re treated. Family owned and operated, we\u2019re proud to offer an exceptional selection of new and certified pre-owned Acuras, backed by a service experience built on trust and precision. Whether it\u2019s your first visit or your next, our team is committed to excellence every step of the way. Visit Southview Acura today, where luxury meets reality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As we near the 50-game mark of the 2025-26 NHL regular-season, the Edmonton Oilers rank second place in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":417909,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[433],"tags":[49,48,448,82],"class_list":["post-417908","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417908","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=417908"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/417908\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/417909"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=417908"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=417908"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=417908"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}