The Canadian Armed Forces have modelled a hypothetical U.S. military invasion of Canada and the country\u2019s potential response, which includes tactics similar to those employed against Russia and later U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan, two senior government officials say. <\/p>\n
It is believed to be the first time in a century that the Canadian Armed Forces have created a model of an American assault on this country, a founding member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and a partner with the U.S. in continental air defence. <\/p>\n
A military model is a conceptual and theoretical framework, not a military plan, which is an actionable and step-by-step directive for executing operations.<\/p>\n
The Globe and Mail is not identifying the officials, who were not authorized to discuss the military\u2019s thinking on this matter publicly. The officials, as well as a number of experts, say it is unlikely the Trump administration would order an invasion of Canada.<\/p>\n
Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Canadian soldiers patrol the area around a NORAD satellite relay dome. The Canadian Armed Forces’ model of a U.S. invasion is believed to be the first it has produced in a century.Gavin John\/The Globe and Mail<\/p>\n The Globe reported this week that Canada is considering sending a small contingent of troops to Greenland to join a group of eight European countries that are holding military exercises as a show of solidarity for Denmark, of which the self-ruling island is a territory.<\/p>\n U.S. President Donald Trump has been challenging NATO allies with repeated calls for the U.S. to acquire Greenland and threats to impose tariffs on European countries who oppose the takeover. Those threats escalated after his attack on Venezuela and capture of President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro earlier this month.<\/p>\n Mr. Trump has also repeatedly mused about Canada becoming the 51st state. On the weekend, NBC reported Mr. Trump has been increasingly complaining to aides in recent weeks about Canada\u2019s vulnerability to U.S. adversaries in the Arctic. Steve Bannon, the former Trump chief strategist who remains close to the President, said Canada is \u201crapidly changing\u201d and becoming \u201chostile\u201d to the United States.<\/p>\n The two senior government officials said military planners are modelling a U.S. invasion from the south, expecting American forces to overcome Canada\u2019s strategic positions on land and at sea within a week and possibly as quickly as two days. <\/p>\n Prime Minister Mark Carney says he\u2019s concerned about the U.S. escalation over the future of Greenland and its sovereignty as President Donald Trump threatens tariffs.<\/p>\n The Canadian Press<\/p>\n Canada does not have the number of military personnel or the sophisticated equipment needed to fend off a conventional American attack, they said. So, the military envisions unconventional warfare in which small groups of irregular military or armed civilians would resort to ambushes, sabotage, drone warfare or hit-and-run tactics.<\/p>\n One of the officials said the model includes tactics used by the Afghan mujahedeen in their hit-and-run attacks on Russian soldiers during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War. These were the same tactics employed by the Taliban in their 20-year war against the U.S. and allied forces that included Canada. Many of the 158 Canadian soldiers killed in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014 were struck by improvised explosive devices or IEDs. <\/p>\n The aim of such tactics would be to impose mass casualties on U.S. occupying forces, the official said. <\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Canadian troops would engage in unconventional warfare, which includes ambushes, sabotage, raids, and hit-and-run tactics similar to what the mujahedeen and Taliban used in Afghanistan.Gavin John\/The Globe and Mail<\/p>\n The modelling provides the keenest insight yet as to the level of threat assessment now being actively discussed by Canada with respect to the Trump administration.<\/p>\n One of the officials noted, however, that relations with the U.S. military remain positive and the two countries are working together on Canada\u2019s participation in a new continental defence system, or \u201cGolden Dome,\u201d to defend against Russian or Chinese missiles.<\/p>\n The military has also run models on missile strikes from Russia or China on Canadian cities and critical infrastructure. <\/p>\n Military planners envision an American attack that would follow clear signs from the U.S. military that the two countries\u2019 partnership in NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defence Command, was ending, and the U.S. was under new orders to take Canada by force.<\/p>\n Conscription has been ruled out for now, but the level of sacrifice that would be asked of Canadians remains a central topic, the officials said. General Jennie Carignan, Chief of the Defence Staff, has already announced her intention to create a 400,000-plus-strong reserve force of volunteers. The officials said they could be armed or asked to provide disruptions if the U.S. becomes an occupying power.<\/p>\n A senior Defence Department official said Canada would have a maximum of three months to prepare for a land and sea invasion. The first indications that invasion orders had been sent would be expected to come from U.S. military warnings that Canada no longer has a shared skies policy with the United States, the source said. <\/p>\n This rupture in the joint defence agreement would likely see France or Britain, nuclear-weapon states, being called on to provide support and defence for Canada against the U.S. <\/p>\n The Globe is not identifying the senior defence official, who was not authorized to discuss Canadian war-modelling scenarios.<\/p>\n