In the December report<\/a>, the IEA had expected global oil demand growth at 860,000 bpd for 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n The upgrade reflects a recovery in feedstock demand in the petrochemicals industry, on top of expectations of normalized economic conditions after the unpredictable and chaotic tariff policy of the Trump Administration last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n The tariff threats haven\u2019t gone away, but global trade and economies appear to have overcome the initial shock.\u00a0<\/p>\n Despite lower output from Kazakhstan and a number of Middle Eastern OPEC producers in recent weeks, global oil supply is now projected to rise by 2.5 million bpd this year to 108.7 million bpd, following a jump of 3 million bpd in 2025, according to the IEA.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yet, the implied surplus on the global oil market would be lower compared to last month\u2019s estimate. In December, the IEA expected an implied surplus of 3.84 million bpd<\/a>, while in the January report the implied glut is 3.69 million bpd, mostly due to the increase in the IEA\u2019s demand growth forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n Inventories are rising, in both crude and products, and weigh on global oil prices, despite brief spikes driven by geopolitical developments in Venezuela and Iran, the Paris-based agency noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIndeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16\/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,\u201d the IEA said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Observed global oil stocks rose by 1.3 million bpd on average in 2025, visible in the surge in oil on water<\/a>, higher Chinese crude stocks, and a rise in U.S. gas liquids inventories, the agency noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cFor now, bloated balances provide some comfort to market participants and have kept prices in check,\u201d the IEA said.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/book.jpg\"\/)
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