{"id":425155,"date":"2026-01-22T05:26:35","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T05:26:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/425155\/"},"modified":"2026-01-22T05:26:35","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T05:26:35","slug":"ufc-324s-best-betting-props-parlays-and-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/425155\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 324\u2019s best betting props, parlays and picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 324 goes down this weekend (Sat., Jan. 24, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and broadcast on Paramount+ for the very first time<\/a>. The first pay-per-view (PPV) numbered event main event of the year is\u2026 Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC Lightweight title. Yay!<\/p>\n

All jokes aside, it\u2019s good to have top flight MMA back in our lives, there\u2019s only so much LFA and WorldstarHipHop one can enjoy. At the very least this weekend will likely produce some high level moments and start off a slew of interesting storylines for the year to come.<\/p>\n

The co-main event for this one was supposed to be Kayla Harrison defending her UFC Bantamweight title against the GWOAT Amanda Nunes. However, due to neck surgery<\/a>, that fight is not happening anytime soon (or perhaps ever).<\/p>\n

The new co-main event is Sean O\u2019Malley vs. Song Yadong, with both men hoping a win paves the way for a rematch against Petr Yan, who won the last UFC fight of 2025<\/a>. Also on the main card is Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Derrick Lewis, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas and Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva.<\/p>\n

UFC 324\u2019s late \u201cPrelims\u201d are headlined by Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Deiveson Figueiredo. Nurmagomedov will be trying to get his name back in the title mix at Bantamweight along with O\u2019Malley and Song.<\/p>\n

Other \u201cPrelims\u201d fights of note include super prospect Ateba Gautier vs. Andrey Pulyaev and the streaking Alexander Hernandez vs. Michael Johnson.<\/p>\n

As always, there\u2019s lots to bet on this card and we\u2019ve got odds for all the fights below:<\/p>\n

UFC 324 Main Card Money Line Odds<\/p>\n

\"Paddy<\/a><\/p>\n

Paddy Pimblett could be a UFC champion after UFC 324. I hope he bought the insurance with those teeth. PA Images via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Justin Gaethje (+190) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-230)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a minute since we last saw Gaethje. It was last March when he took a convincing win over Rafael Fiziev, a short notice replacement for Dan Hooker. That was Gaethje\u2019s first fight since his buzzer beating KO loss to Max Holloway at UFC 300 (see that here<\/a>). Gaethje\u2019s second win over Fiziev improved his UFC record to 9-5. He turned 37 in November.<\/p>\n

Pimblett\u2019s record heading into this fight has been the subject of a lot of debate. The recently turned 31 year-old is 7-0 in UFC (23-3 overall). In his last fight he beat the heck out of Michael Chandler (see it here<\/a>). Before that he quickly choked out King Green (see it here<\/a>). And before that he dominated Tony Ferguson for a decision. Prior to fighting those long in the tooth and very shop worn fighters he took a decision over Jared Gordon which everybody outside of Liverpool scored for the American.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m pretty much in-line with what the odds are for this fight right now. They are very close to the opening line, so it seems that Vegas, the public and I all agree that Pimblett is most likely to win this fight. I\u2019m sure many of us aren\u2019t thrilled about that, though.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d love to make more of a case for Gaethje in this bout, but I really don\u2019t like this match-up for him. The UFC had been pretty careful with booking Gaethje over his entire Octagon career, largely setting him up with fellow action fighters who would put on a good brawl with him. He\u2019s been a daredevil, used to sell PPV cards,<\/p>\n

But times have changed. There are no PPVs now and Gaethje has become a bit of a persona non grata with UFC. I don\u2019t think there\u2019s many at UFC HQ still interested in making typical Gaethje fights for the grouchy former WSOF star.<\/p>\n

A prime Gaethje would light Pimblett up on the feet before he had to worry about doing anything else. But now, he\u2019s just not that guy. I think the longer, younger, stronger Pimblett will try his luck on the feet for a little, but will eventually find ways to force Gaethje to fight off submissions, either on the ground or from standing.<\/p>\n

The odds on a Pimblett win aren\u2019t totally unappealing. However, I\u2019d rather not pick him outright\u2026 since I don\u2019t like him very much.<\/p>\n

The round total for this is 2.5 rounds. I like the under here. I\u2019m concerned about Gaethje\u2019s age, how much damage he\u2019s taken over the years, his almost year long lay-off and him perhaps having a staph infection<\/a>. I can see there being a quick submission win for the Englishman. Or, maybe, Gaethje proves a lot of us wrong and folds The Baddy inside the first. That would be neat.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-110)<\/p>\n

\"Sean<\/a><\/p>\n

Sean O\u2019Malley will try and climb back the Bantamweight ladder at UFC 324. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Sean O\u2019Malley (-205) vs. Song Yadong (+170)<\/p>\n

\u2018Suga\u2019 returns for the first time since June, 2025 this weekend. O\u2019Malley\u2019s last fight was his unsuccessful title challenger versus Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 316. That bout was his failed attempt to wrest back the belt he lost to Dvalishvili at Sphere in 2024. The last time he fought someone not named Dvalishvili was when he beat Marlon Vera by unanimous decision in March, 2024.<\/p>\n

Song\u2019s last fight was his terribly managed contest with Henry Cejudo. That went down as a technical decision win, but it probably should have been a no contest. The only reason it wasn\u2019t was because referee Jason Herzog convinced Cejudo to suck it up a little longer so the fight could go to a decision, which Cejudo had no chance of winning. Before that Song lost to current champ Petr Yan, in March, 2024. Song has only fought four times since the beginning of 2023.<\/p>\n

I like O\u2019Malley in this fight, since Song seems destined to give him the kind of fight where he excels. Song is not going to be looking for takedowns (he only completes 0.61 of them every fifteen minutes and his accuracy is just 38 percent). If we\u2019re just standing and winging strikes at each other, O\u2019Malley should be at a heavy advantage. He has a five inch reach advantage over Song and is also three inches taller. He should be able to keep Song on the outside and might be able to hurt him with counters if Song grows impatient and starts to over-reach.<\/p>\n

Song has lacked a lot of discipline across his UFC career and has been far too willing to get hit in order to land his own offense. He absorbs 4 significant strikes a minute, which is pretty high. He only lands .58 sig. strikes more than that.<\/p>\n

O\u2019Malley absorbs 3.48, too. Which is a tad high. But he lands a whopping 6.3 a minute. And when someone is landing that much it\u2019s pretty normal for them to get hit more than most. The accuracy and defense number on sig. strikes are also in O\u2019Malley\u2019s favor. He has 61 percent accuracy on his shots, compared to 43 percent for Song. And he has a 60 percent defense against sig. strikes, compared to Song\u2019s 55 percent.<\/p>\n

All this data, and a fight which is most likely going to be all striking, has me pretty confident in O\u2019Malley having a winning return to the cage.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Sean O\u2019Malley moneyline (-205)<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/a><\/p>\n

Will Waldo Cortes-Acosta continue on his mission to Make Heavyweight Fun Again at UFC 324? Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-325) vs. Derrick Lewis (+260)<\/p>\n

Cortes-Acosta was one of the most watchable Heavyweight in the promotion last year. He fought five times and went 4-1. His sole loss was a decision to Sergei Pavlovich. In that fight Cortes-Acosta might have proved that he has the hardest chin in the promotion. After that tough loss he came back and beat Ante Delija in a wild eye poke laden fight (see it here<\/a>). 21 days later he came in on ultra short notice to fight Shamil Gaziev, who he starched with a massive right hook (see it here<\/a>). He then gave us one of the most genuinely funny in-cage interviews we\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n

The 40 year-old Lewis went Beast Mode on Tallison Teixeira last July. He landed big shots on the hot prospect and got away with a pretty bad early stoppage (see it here<\/a>). That win came after a late TKO win over Rodrigo Nascimento (see it here<\/a>). Lewis\u2019 last loss was a unanimous decision to Jailton Almeida.<\/p>\n

Lewis\u2019 KO punch is the stuff of legends now and he\u2019s been able to uncork it to put down all manner of fighters over his career. The question is, can he KO Cortes-Acosta, though? I was stunned by some of the shots Salsa Boy shrugged off against Pavlovich. That makes me think he might be able to take Lewis\u2019 best shot.<\/p>\n

I have doubts that Lewis will be able to find a home for that big looping punch, though. Before Cortes-Acosta\u2019s recent sprint of fun fights and entertaining moments, he had a reputation for being extremely boring due to how risk adverse his fighting style was and how much time he spent on the outside spamming leg kicks.<\/p>\n

I think there\u2019s a good chance he does that with Lewis on Saturday. I can see him chopping down the Black Beast\u2019s legs and then landing some takedowns on route to a dull decision. Lewis does get taken down a ton, but he his get-ups are great. Even so, I think Cortes-Acosta will score lots of points with the judges by him being in control of the action and pushing Lewis into the fence or dragging him down (even if Lewis gets back up relatively quickly).<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t see a stoppage coming for either guy in this fight, even if Cortes-Acosta has scored some finishes as of late. Lewis has been finished by punches a few times, but only to really heavy hitters. That\u2019s not Cortes-Acosta.<\/p>\n

The round total for this fight is 1.5. That\u2019s Heavyweight for you. But with these Heavyweights I think the over is a great play.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-125)<\/p>\n

\"Jean<\/a><\/p>\n

Jean Silva needs to rebound at UFC 324. Getty Images For Paramount+<\/p>\n

Arnold Allen (+215) vs. Jean Silva (-265)<\/p>\n

\u2018Almighty\u2019 Allen hasn\u2019t fought since he beat Giga Chikadze in July 2024. He won that fight by unanimous decision, stopping his losing streak at two fights. Those two fights were against stellar opposition, though: Movsar Evloev and Max Holloway.<\/p>\n

Silva saw a lot of his mystique evaporate in his last fight, after Diego Lopes smashed elbows onto the top of his dome and handed him his first ever UFC loss (see it here<\/a>). Prior to that Silva had created quite the hype train, thanks to his screwball style and brutal finishes over Bryce Mitchell (see it here<\/a>) and Melsik Baghdasaryan (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

This is a hard fight to call.<\/p>\n

Silva is extremely talented at multiple facets of the game, but he\u2019s also batshit crazy and fights without any kind of seeming rationale. He goes with the flow and seems to view fighting as performance as much as anything. That\u2019s led to some incredible fights and finishes for him in the past. But I doubt that this approach can get him past the top ranked guys in this very tough division.<\/p>\n

Allen has been drawn into brawls before. If he decides he wants to have a fun barn burner on Saturday then we might get treated to an awesome fight. In that scenario, though, I question whether Allen will be able to stand up to the fire power.<\/p>\n

I think the ground battle between these two will be really interesting. Allen is very solid on the ground, though not to the point where he could hang with Evloev. Silva has shown flashes of being very slick on the ground, but he\u2019s not had to spend much time there. so we don\u2019t have a very accurate assessment of his skills.<\/p>\n

Part of me thinks this will end up like that Allen vs. Holloway fight, where Allen decides he just wants to stand and bang and see how far that will get him. Against Holloway that got him to a 76-147 striking deficit. I don\u2019t think Allen wins that kind of fight against Silva, but I\u2019m also hesitant to go all in on Silva given how \u2018flash-in-the-pan\u2019 he feels right now.<\/p>\n

The round total for this is 2.5. The over is -130 and the under is +200. I feel like this is going over, given that Allen has never been stopped and that Silva has only ever been stopped by Lopes. I\u2019ll stick with that and resist the urge to look at anything fancier.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-130)<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.\"Rose<\/a><\/p>\n

Rose Namajunas is one of a number of former champs at UFC 324. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Natalia Silva (-410) vs. Rose Namajunas (+320)<\/p>\n

Silva has quietly amassed a seven fight winning streak in UFC. And it\u2019s not been against scrubs, either. Her last two wins were against former champions Jessica Andrade and then Alexa Grasso. She\u2019ll try and claim a hat trick of wins over ex belt-holders when she faces Namajunas this weekend.<\/p>\n

\u2018Thug\u2019 Rose outclassed Miranda Maverick in her last fight in June. That saw her rebound from a decision loss to Erin Blanchfield. Namajunas\u2019 other recent wins were over Tracy Cortez and Amanda Ribas.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to figure out Namajunas at this stage of her career. She seems to lose to the contenders (Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot), but turn away the pretenders (Cortez and Ribas). Seems strange to think of the former champion as a gatekeeper, but I\u2019m not sure she\u2019s capable of stringing enough wins together to get a title shot any time soon.<\/p>\n

The big question is whether Silva is a contender or pretender. Her performance against Grasso has me leaning towards the former. She out struck Grasso 65 to 45 on sig. strikes. Grasso outstruck Valentina Shevchenko across five rounds in their second fight, by four strikes. Silva is fifth in the division with 5.04 sig. strikes landed a minute (Namajunas isn\u2019t in the top ten) and she leads the division with striking differential. She also leads in knockdown average per 15 minutes and total knockdowns (tied with Namajunas, Shevchenko and few others).<\/p>\n

Namajunas leads the division with sig. strike defense at 68.1 percent. But Silva is just behind her, in fourth, with 65.5 percent. Silva is also fifth in fewest sig. strikes absorbed.<\/p>\n

I think this is going to translate to Silva winning the stike number battle on Saturday and that most often leads to a win. Namajunas is likely better on the ground, but she has to get there. Silva\u2019s takedown defense is a strong 92 percent right now, having shut out Grasso and Andrade and held Viviane Araujo to one takedown on nine attempts (Araujo usually lands 1.72 takedowns per 15 mins).<\/p>\n

Despite being a big believer in Silva for this fight, I\u2019m still pretty surprised to see the betting lines where they are. I thought there would be a lot of residual appreciation for Namajunas, with both Vegas and the public, but she is a huge underdog here (almost as big as she was before she upset Joanna Jedrzejczyk).<\/p>\n

With Silva\u2019s moneyline off the table I\u2019m forced to consider the point spread. Silva -3.5 is -120. I usually only play point spreads if I can imagine the fighter getting the finish. I think Silva can dominate this fight, but I don\u2019t think she knocks Namajunas out. Without the KO threat, I need her to win with scores better than 29-28 x 3. I think she\u2019s capable of that. She got 30-27s across the board against Grasso and Andrade.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Natalia Silva -3.5 (-120)<\/p>\n

UFC 324 \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/p>\n

\"Umar<\/a><\/p>\n

Umar Nurmagomedov might earn a title shot at UFC 324. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1450) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+850)<\/p>\n

Nurmagomedov lost his 0 a year ago, when he lost by unanimous decision to then UFC Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. Prior to that Khabib\u2019s cousin was 18-0 as a pro with wins over Cory Sandhagen, Bekzat Almakhan and Raoni Barcelos. He rebounded from his Dvalishvili defeat by beating Mario Bautista, pretty convincingly, in October. With Dvalishvili now without the belt, Nuramgomedov is likely the next man up for Petr Yan if he can get through this fight unscathed.<\/p>\n

Figueiredo lost to Yan in November 2024, though gave a pretty good account of himself (especially with regards to his toughness). He then lost to Sandhagen, due to a knee injury (which Sandhagen helped cause). Since then, though, he beat Montel Jackson, by split decision. That was a pretty dominant performance from the Brazilian, though, despite one judge scoring it for Jackson.<\/p>\n

Nurmagomedov is the heaviest favorite on the card, by a lot. And that says a lot considering Ateba Gautier is on the card. Honestly, I can\u2019t see any reason to disagree with that.<\/p>\n

Figueiredo is tough as old boots, but his success has always been his ability to land opportune takedowns between winning and losing exchanges on the feet. He\u2019s not landing a takedown on Nurmagomedov. And he\u2019s not stopping himself getting taken down, either.<\/p>\n

Nurmagomedov out wrestles everyone in the division not named Merab Dvalishvili and perhaps Petr Yan. The aging former Flyweight is just not going to pose much of an issue for him on the ground. I think we\u2019re going to see Nurmagomedov take Figueiredo down, hold him down, rinse and repeat.<\/p>\n

Figueiredo is still a decent fighter and there\u2019s plenty of guys in this division he can beat. I just hate this match-up for him.<\/p>\n

The round total is 2.5 and I\u2019ll take the over there, since the moneyline is totally repellent. Nurmagomedov has a dominating style, but he doesn\u2019t have the killer instinct and finishing ability that some in his camp have. And Figueiredo is a tough son or a gun, too, who I can\u2019t see getting pounded out on the ground.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-175)<\/p>\n

\"Ateba<\/a><\/p>\n

Ateba Gautier looks for another victim at UFC 324. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Ateba Gautier (-850) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+575)<\/p>\n

Gautier has looked as scary as advertised in each of his UFC assignments since graduating off Contender Series in 2024. He\u2019s obliterated Jose Medina (see it here<\/a>), Robert Valentin (see it here<\/a>) and, most recently, Tre\u2019ston Vines (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The lanky Pulyaev beat Nick Klein in his last fight, putting him away with strikes in the second round (see it here<\/a>). That win came after a very dull unanimous decision loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in his proper UFC debut.<\/p>\n

How bold am I feeling, here?<\/p>\n

I think Pulyaev is a live dog. He\u2019s the first fighter Gautier has faced who actually knows what he\u2019s doing in there. He went three rounds with Duncan, who has looked monstrous since then in devastating both Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio. Frankly, fighting forcing Duncan to a boring decision, is about as impressive as knocking out the law firm of Medina, Valentin and Vines.<\/p>\n

Gautier\u2019s numbers are off the charts. He has landed 6.57 sig. strikes a minute and absorbed just 1.95. His accuracy is 60 percent. He has a 92 percent takedown defense and a one hundred percent takedown percentage. But, again, who has he fought?<\/p>\n

The round total on this one is, predictably, 1.5. The over is +165 and that\u2019s where I\u2019m going for this bet. I wish I was feeling brave enough to go for Pulyaev with those odds, with the thought that he could prove that Gautier still requires a little seasoning. Instead, though, I\u2019ll go more conservative in the belief that Pulyaev\u2019s funky stall-heavy and spin-happy game might proof difficult for Gautier and that means he either suffers an upset or he takes longer than usual to knock him the eff out.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+165)<\/p>\n

\"Modestas<\/a><\/p>\n

Modestas Bukauskus might retire his second fighter in a row at UFC 324. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Nikita Krylov (+124) vs. Modestas Bukauskus (-148)<\/p>\n

Krylov might be trying to fight out his UFC contract. After a two year hiatus he returned last year and quickly fought, and lost by brutal stoppage, to both Dominick Reyes and Bogdan Guskov. Those losses took his UFC career to 11-9 (30-11 overall). Those losses were also his eighth and ninth career losses by stoppage.<\/p>\n

Bukauskas is on a four fight winning streak. Don\u2019t get too excited, though. Those wins included finishes over Paul Craig (see it here<\/a>), Raffael Cerqueira and Marcin Prachnio. There\u2019s also a split decision win over Ion Cutelaba which was highly questionable.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t know why Krylov keeps getting so much love from Vegas. He was the favorite against Guskov for Pete\u2019s sake. I\u2019m shocked his odds here are so short given how fragile he\u2019s looked in his last two fights. And I don\u2019t think Bukauskas is much less of a striking threat than Reyes.<\/p>\n

Bukauskas gets hit a lot himself, but I think he\u2019ll just be too lively for Krylov and I think we might see another quick finish loss for Al Capone. Vegas agrees that this will be a short fight. The round total is 1.5 and the under is -130. I\u2019ll take that, since Light Heavyweight is a bonkers division where people go to sleep in the first round all the time.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-130)<\/p>\n

UFC 324 Early \u2018Prelims\u2019<\/p>\n

\"Charles<\/a><\/p>\n

Charles Johnson could carve a path to the UFC Flyweight title at UFC 324. Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Alex Perez (+154) vs. Charles Johnson (-185)<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been tough going for Alex Perez ever since he KO\u2019d Matheus Nicolau in 2024 (see it here<\/a>). After that upset, in his debut main event, Perez suffered a serious knee injury against Tatsuro Taira (see it here<\/a>). That put Perez on the shelf for over a year. He was due to return, against Steve Erceg, in August 2025 but another injury forced him out again. He would eventually return against Asu Almabayev in November. He looked really good in that fight, but ended up losing in the third round by submission.<\/p>\n

Johnson might quietly work himself into the title picture here. He\u2019s 5-1 since 2023 with wins over Azat Maksum, Jake Hadley, Sumudaerji and \u2014 most recently \u2014 Lone\u2019er Kavanagh, who he starched with a right hook (see it here<\/a>). He also beat a guy called Joshua Van with an uppercut knockout (see it here<\/a>) over that stretch. Johnson\u2019s only loss, as of late, was a decision to Ramazan Temirov last March.<\/p>\n

This is a really interesting fight. And I don\u2019t think it\u2019s a huge step up for Johnson who, after all did knock out the current champ (yes, yes, I know he\u2019s the champ because Pantoja broke his arm). The knock on Johnson has never been him having a lack of skill. His boxing can be tremendous, after all. The knock has been, instead, that he seems to over think or start fights too hesitantly. He\u2019s managed to fight out of those slow starts sometimes, but on other occasions he\u2019s put himself into too deep a hole to climb out of.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to tell where a fighter is at, mentally, until you see them start fighting. However, I have a feeling that Johnson might have ironed out some of the kinks in his mental game and that he\u2019s ready to take a big step forwards in his career. He shouldn\u2019t be lacking in confidence, given how many guys he\u2019s seen crumble from his punches. He\u2019s top ten in finishes, top seven in knockdowns and top three in KO\/TKOs in the division. He doesn\u2019t just have power, though. He\u2019s also top ten in sig. strikes landed, sig. strike accuracy, strikes landed per minute and striking differential. His strikes landed per minute (4.8) are actually fourth in the division and ahead of guys like Erceg, Kai Kara-France and Bruno Silva.<\/p>\n

Johnson compliments his striking stats with a 66.7% takedown defense. Perez\u2019s takedown accuracy is sub-par at 48%, though he does complete a nice 2.28 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Even so, I like Johnson\u2019s chances of sprawling and technical brawling his way to a win here.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Charles Johnson moneyline (-185)<\/p>\n

\"Michael<\/a><\/p>\n

Michael Johnson looks to continue his late career renascence at UFC 324. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Alexander Hernandez (-155) vs. Michael Johnson (+130)<\/p>\n

Johnson, who turns 40 in July, has won three straight including a big upset over Daniel Zellhuber in his last fight. That unanimous decision, in last July, followed his brutal KO win over Ottman Azaitar in December, 2024 (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Hernandez has won four straight. In his last fight he lit up Diego Ferreira for a second round TKO (see it here). Ferreira was the last man to beat Johnson, by the way, whom he knocked out in 2023. Hernandez also finished Chase Hooper last year (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

I am feeling really high on Hernandez at the moment. He seems to have really unlocked new levels of potential over the last twelve months. He\u2019s very well rounded and, what\u2019s more, he\u2019s shown great intelligence regarding which facets of his game to use and when. We\u2019ve seem him out-box wrestlers and out-wrestler boxers over this recent run.<\/p>\n

I think he wins on Saturday, but I think it might be close. Johnson is fighting with a lot of confidence and is really letting his hands go. I think there\u2019s a chance he surprises Hernandez in this fight. But I think the most likely outcome is a close fight where Hernandez pulls ahead thanks to mixing in his wrestling in between hard exchanges on the feet.<\/p>\n

I think this is likely going to a decision (both these guys are very tough outs). I like the odds there a little more than the Hernandez moneyline,<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-105)<\/p>\n

\"Denzel<\/a><\/p>\n

Denzel Freeman will hope to impress, more than in his debut, at UFC 324. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Josh Hokit (-238) vs. Denzel Freeman (+195)<\/p>\n

Hokit is riding his Heavyweight Colby Covington gimmick to try and get himself higher up these cards. He fought pretty recently, KOing Max Gimenis in less than a minute (see it here<\/a>). He introduced himself to the UFC audience with a TKO finish on Contender Series in August.<\/p>\n

Freeman vacated the LFA Heavyweight title to sign with UFC in November. He then fought an absolute stinker of a fight against Marek Bujlo. He won that fight, but it was dreadful to watch. It was so bad it cost Bujlo his UFC contract after just one fight.<\/p>\n

Hokit\u2019s athleticism at this weight class is always going to make him a threat. The former NFL practice squad member has a lot of explosiveness with his movement and striking. He has only fought cans so far, though. Freeman isn\u2019t like his previous opponents. He knows what he\u2019s doing in there and he has good striking defense.<\/p>\n

Freeman is also much bigger than Hokit. He has a four inch reach advantage. So Hokit isn\u2019t going to be able to leap in without taking some risks. Freeman\u2019s debut was a dud but he\u2019s a guy who can finish fights (he submitted Steven Asplund back in LFA).<\/p>\n

The round total is 1.5 and I think that\u2019s too low. Freeman\u2019s patient approach, defense and experience makes me confident that Hokit isn\u2019t going to end this quickly (if at all).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-238)<\/p>\n

\"Cameron<\/a><\/p>\n

Cameron Smotherman gets his fourth UFC fight at UFC 324. Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Ricky Turcios (+154) vs. Cameron Smotherman (-185)<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s two guys in desperate need of a win.<\/p>\n

Turcios has been out of action for a whole year. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Bernardo Sopaj at UFC 311. Before that he was submitted in a bad tempered fight against Raul Rosas Jr. (see it here<\/a>). Turcios, a former TUF champ, is now 2-3 in UFC with one of those wins being his TUF finale split decision victory over Brady Hiestand.<\/p>\n

Smotherman is also on a two fight losing streak. He signed with UFC in October, 2024 and won a short notice fight over Jake Hadley. Since then he has lost unanimous decisions to Serhiy Sidey and Ricky Simon.<\/p>\n

Smotherman has proved pretty one-dimensional in his UFC appearances to date. He\u2019s a low intensity and accuracy boxer who has offered nothing in the grappling department. Turcios has had some pretty low moments in the Octagon, but I do think he is more well rounded than Smotherman (in that he will at least consider mixing his martial arts).<\/p>\n

Smotherman\u2019s over reliance on striking was exposed by Simon and Sidey\u2019s takedowns and I think Turcios might be able to hang on the feet (with his slight reach advantage) and spend enough time in dominant positions to steal this one.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Ricky Turcios moneyline (-185)<\/p>\n

\"Ty<\/a><\/p>\n

Ty Miller makes the leap from Contender Series to the big show at UFC 324. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Adam Fugitt (+350) vs. Ty Miller (-455)<\/p>\n

Fugitt took a pasting from Islam Dulatov in July (see it here<\/a>). That was after a year on the sidelines. Before that he took a smart split decision over Josh Quinlan and suffered a submission to Mike Malott. Before that he was TKO\u2019d by Michael Morales.<\/p>\n

The 6-0 Miller is coming off a Contender Series unanimous decision victory over Jimmy Drago. He\u2019s was in LFA before that. His stint there included a 45 second KO over Ryan Charlebois.<\/p>\n

I have respect for Fugitt\u2019s strength of schedule, so I\u2019m interested in his underdog odds against an unproven talent (and guys off Contender Series are unproven until they do something against anyone with more than two fights under the big lights).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Adam Fugitt moneyline (+350)<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a><\/p>\n

The Suga Show might make a return at UFC 324. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a couple of long shots for Saturday night\u2019s action …<\/p>\n

Sean O\u2019Malley to win by KO\/TKO\/DQ (+300)<\/p>\n

I really like this match-up for Sean O\u2019Malley and think he\u2019s going to have a lot of success tagging Song Yadong from distance. I\u2019ve seen Song get frustrated when he\u2019s behind and make bad decisions. I can see that happening here and him walking into a big shot.<\/p>\n

Andrey Pulyaev moneyline (+575)<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t want to say that there\u2019s a fraud check in the offing on Saturday night. I think Ateba Gautier deserves to be thought of as an elite prospect and a potentially very good fighter. I just also think Andrey Pulyaev is better than he is being given credit for and that he has a game that could slow down and frustrate Gautier (who has had a cake walk with his only other UFC opponents). With me feeling a little bit of doubt over Gautier in this match-up, why not take a big swing on someone I think is a decent fighter?<\/p>\n

Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win by Submission (+1800)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m picking this because Waldo Cortes-Acosta is on a very wild ride right now. It feels like he\u2019s destined to be a big player in the very weird Heavyweight picture that is forming in 2026. It would be very weird if he submitted Derrick Lewis on Saturday. Therefore, I think it will happen. It\u2019s Heavyweight, this stuff doesn\u2019t need to make sense.<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 324: \u201cGaethje vs. Pimblett\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC 324 goes down this weekend (Sat., Jan. 24, 2026) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":425156,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,48,641,33601,638,82,153471,139445,702,17056],"class_list":["post-425155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-324","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-odds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=425155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425155\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/425156"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=425155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=425155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=425155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}