The Seahawks and Patriots are headed to Super Bowl LX, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Feb. 8 at Levi\u2019s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.<\/p>\n
With two weeks until the big game, we\u2019re taking an early look at the matchup. Lindsey Thiry sets it up with what to know, and our NFL Nation reporters Mike Reiss and Brady Henderson pick reasons for hope and concern for both teams. Seth Walder gives you some key stats, Matt Bowen picks a key matchup and Eric Moody pulls out an X factor. Aaron Schatz answers big questions surrounding the final game of the season, Dan Graziano judges one potential overreaction and Ben Solak explores the quarterback matchup. And finally, we have early gut-reaction predictions from our experts.<\/p>\n
Does the Patriots\u2019 secondary stand a chance against Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a>? Will New England\u2019s Drake Maye<\/a> become the fifth quarterback to win a Super Bowl in their second NFL season? Here\u2019s everything you need to know.<\/p>\n Super Bowl LX: Seahawks vs. Patriots<\/p>\n When: Sunday, Feb. 8, 6:30 p.m. ET on TSN and CTV<\/p>\n Where: Levi\u2019s Stadium, Santa Clara<\/p>\n Opening line: SEA -3.5 (O\/U 46.5)<\/p>\n ESPN\u2019s Football Power Index: SEA, 60.2% (by 3.6 points)<\/p>\n Forever ingrained in Seahawks and Patriots lore is cornerback Malcolm Butler\u2019s interception at the 1-yard line to secure a 28-24 victory in Super Bowl XLIX at the end of the 2014 season. This upcoming contest marks the ninth time there has been a Super Bowl rematch. New England has been involved in four of those matchups, the most by any team. For the Patriots, it\u2019s a return to the Super Bowl after a six-year absence following the end of the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady dynasty. And for the Seahawks, it will be their fourth appearance.<\/p>\n Tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, coach Mike MacDonald and the Seahawks quietly built on their 10-7 record in MacDonald\u2019s first season, winning the NFC West and earning the No. 1 seed in Year 2. In his first season in Seattle, quarterback Sam Darnold<\/a> joined Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks to put together back-to-back 14-win seasons. Boasting the top scoring defense (17.2 points allowed per game), the Seahawks also received a midseason boost with the acquisition of wide receiver Rashid Shaheed<\/a>. His standout play as a return specialist provided sparks in multiple key wins.<\/p>\n In his first season as New England\u2019s head coach, Mike Vrabel orchestrated a turnaround that took a 4-13 team to the Patriots\u2019 first division title since winning 11 straight from 2009 to 2019. They are the sixth team to reach the Super Bowl after having five or fewer wins in the previous season. The last team to win a Super Bowl in this scenario was the 2001 Patriots — Brady\u2019s first season as the starting QB. After a 1-2 start in 2025, the Patriots won 13 of their next 14 games behind a top-five scoring offense and defense. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye<\/a> led the NFL in Total QBR (77.1) this season. — Thiry<\/p>\n Seattle Seahawks<\/p>\n Regular season: 14-3 | NFC seed: No. 1<\/p>\n Reason for hope: Defense wins championships, and the Seahawks have an elite one. Mike Macdonald\u2019s unit allowed the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season at 16.4 per game, and then it turned it up a notch in the divisional round against the 49ers. Seattle held San Francisco to a pair of field goals, got three takeaways and forced three more turnovers on downs. The Seahawks have now gone 27 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher despite facing Christian McCaffrey<\/a> twice, Kyren Williams<\/a> twice, Bijan Robinson<\/a> once and Jonathan Taylor<\/a> once over the past two months.<\/p>\n Reason for concern: Turnovers. Only Minnesota committed more than Seattle\u2019s 28 during the regular season. Sam Darnold<\/a> made the Pro Bowl despite leading all players with 20 turnovers, though he didn\u2019t give the ball away in the Seahawks\u2019 past three games. Darnold is also playing through an oblique injury, and Seattle\u2019s offense just lost one of its most reliable players — running back Zach Charbonnet<\/a> — to an ACL tear. — Henderson<\/p>\n New England Patriots<\/p>\n Regular season: 14-3 | AFC seed: No. 2<\/p>\n Reason for hope: Quarterback Drake Maye<\/a>. His knack for making plays with his arm and legs is unique, as is his pinpoint accuracy on deep passes — even when he\u2019s escaping the pocket. In the regular season, he led the NFL in completion percentage (72%), passer rating (113.5) and yards per attempt (8.93). Maye\u2019s 37-yard run in the wild-card round set a franchise record, and he had a 28-yarder to set up the Patriots\u2019 go-ahead field goal in the AFC title game. Paired with a defense that has proven it can play at a high level in the postseason, it\u2019s a potentially dangerous combination.<\/p>\n Reason for concern: Turnovers — same as the Seahawks. Maye fumbled six times in the Patriots\u2019 first two playoff matchups (losing three of them), and he also had a tipped-ball interception against the Chargers. So, the Patriots have been living dangerously at times with ball security. Youth is also a consideration. In addition to four undrafted free agents, the Patriots have all 11 draft picks from 2025 on their roster. The Super Bowl is a big stage for rookies. — Reiss<\/p>\n Stats to know<\/p>\n Every number tells the same story against the Seahawks\u2019 defense: You cannot run on it. Opponent success rate on designed runs against Seattle is just 34%, the lowest in the NFL. Its EPA per play on those plays is minus-0.15, also the lowest. And opponents have managed minus-34 first downs over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, when rushing against Seattle. That\u2019s by far the lowest in the league (next closest is the Texans at minus-14).<\/p>\n The Patriots are the best team in the most important part of football: passing offense (0.23 EPA per play). They also have the largest gap between their EPA per play on designed passes versus designed runs (0.28 difference), so it\u2019s critical that they put the ball in Maye\u2019s hands as much as possible in the Super Bowl. And they\u2019ve done that up to this point with the second-highest pass rate over expected (plus-4%) in the NFL, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder<\/p>\n Inside the matchup<\/p>\n Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a> vs. the Patriots\u2019 quarters coverage <\/p>\n The Patriots played quarters coverage (four deep, three under) on 19.5% of opponent dropbacks during the playoffs. Here, the Seahawks can scheme for Smith-Njigba out of slot alignments to create vertical matchups versus New England safeties Jaylinn Hawkins<\/a> and Craig Woodson<\/a>. Smith-Njigba caught 24 passes for 335 yards out of the slot this season. This is where coordinator Klint Kubiak can set up his shot plays for Darnold. — Bowen<\/p>\n Seahawks\u2019 X factor: Rashid Shaheed<\/a>, WR<\/p>\n Shaheed brings a unique skill set to the Seahawks\u2019 offense. He\u2019s explosive and capable of scoring whenever he touches the ball as a receiver, as a runner or on special teams. That ability was on display in the NFC Championship Game, when he hauled in a 51-yard reception. With wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba<\/a> and running back Kenneth Walker III<\/a> expected to command significant attention from New England, Shaheed could be in favorable matchups on the league\u2019s biggest stage.<\/p>\n Patriots\u2019 X factor: Rhamondre Stevenson<\/a>, RB<\/p>\n Stevenson has emerged as an under-the-radar star for the Patriots. After a rough start to the season marked by fumbling issues, he was given the opportunity to turn things around following Antonio Gibson<\/a>\u2019s season-ending injury and has delivered since Week 6 while playing alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson<\/a>. Running behind an inconsistent Patriots offensive line, Stevenson has still been productive, totaling 58 touches and 280 yards in three postseason games. Vrabel trusts Stevenson, and the running back is expected to be leaned on heavily by the Patriots in the Super Bowl. — Moody<\/p>\n Answering big questions<\/p>\n Did Sam Darnold<\/a> show major improvements this season, or was he again carried by a strong defense?<\/p>\n The answer is both. Darnold showed major improvements in the first half of the regular season and then regressed substantially as the Seahawks\u2019 defense got even better. Remarkably, he finished the 2025 regular season with a lower QBR (56.0) than he had last season in Minnesota (57.3). Although he had a higher completion rate and was sacked fewer times, he also had more interceptions and fewer touchdowns.<\/p>\n And look at how Darnold\u2019s stats are split this season: In Weeks 1-9, Darnold had a 77.9 QBR. At that point, he was second in the NFL behind Baltimore\u2019s Lamar Jackson<\/a>. For Weeks 10-18, Darnold had a 37.4 QBR, which ranked 26th. Every part of Darnold\u2019s performance declined in the second half of the season.<\/p>\n Did the Patriots have the easiest path ever to the Super Bowl by strength of schedule?<\/p>\n Based on my DVOA ratings, the Patriots had the third-easiest regular-season schedule since 1978. Their average opponent had a minus-13.3% DVOA. In other words, their average opponent was about as good as Washington or Miami in 2025.<\/p>\n However, the two teams with easier schedules by average DVOA of opponents also made it to the Super Bowl. The 1991 Bills had the easiest schedule by DVOA (minus-14.8%), followed by the 1999 Rams (minus-14.5%).<\/p>\n We also have to consider the opponents these teams faced in the playoffs. The Patriots started out with the Chargers, who ranked 17th in DVOA. Houston was fourth and Denver was seventh.<\/p>\n However, the 1991 Bills and 1999 Rams had easier playoff roads because they started out against nobody. (First-round byes are a lot easier than facing an average team such as the Chargers.) The 1991 Bills faced the Chiefs (fifth) and then the Broncos (15th). The 1999 Rams had it a little tougher, facing the Vikings (sixth) and the Buccaneers (10th).<\/p>\n The Patriots arguably had an easier path because of circumstances. For example, they beat the Broncos\u2019 backup quarterback and played the Texans without wide receiver Nico Collins<\/a>. But the Rams also faced Tampa Bay\u2019s backup quarterback in the NFC Championship Game.<\/p>\n It\u2019s worth noting two teams before DVOA ratings began: the 1970 Baltimore Colts and the 1972 Miami Dolphins<\/a>. They faced the easiest regular-season schedules based on their opponents\u2019 win-loss record. Baltimore\u2019s opponents were at .352, Miami\u2019s opponents at .357 and the 1999 Rams\u2019 opponents at .363. This year\u2019s Patriots opponents are at .429. — Schatz<\/p>\n Judging one overreaction: Darnold will get a huge contract extension this offseason<\/p>\n Yes, overreaction. First of all, the Seahawks don\u2019t need to give Darnold an extension. He is signed through 2027 with no guaranteed money left on his deal beyond what they\u2019ve already paid him. Darnold made $37.5 million this season, in the first year of the three-year, $100.5 million deal he signed with the Seahawks in March. Now, Seattle has to decide by five days after the Super Bowl whether it wants to pay his $15 million 2026 roster bonus. Because the Seahawks are playing in the Super Bowl, it\u2019s probably fair to expect them to pick up that bonus, and he\u2019ll make an additional $12.5 million in salary in 2026.<\/p>\n The point here is about the Seahawks and the way they view the quarterback position. They traded Russell Wilson<\/a> when they knew he was going to get another top-of-market extension, and they didn\u2019t believe he was still the type of player who deserved that. They traded Geno Smith<\/a> when he rebuffed their attempts at a contract extension. And pivoting to Darnold has worked. The picks the Seahawks got for Wilson helped them build an NFC champion roster, and Darnold has so far been good enough to lead them to the Super Bowl. But Seattle thought Darnold was worth $33.5 million per year in free agency, and I believe it still values him in that range.<\/p>\n If Darnold were to insist on a big-money contract extension and threaten to sit out, Seattle\u2019s recent behavior tells us it\u2019d probably trade him and find a capable replacement to plug into its deep, excellent roster. The Seahawks don\u2019t want to spend great-QB money on a good — even very good — QB. They don\u2019t believe that\u2019s the best way to build a championship roster. If they had Patrick Mahomes<\/a> or Josh Allen<\/a> or Joe Burrow<\/a> or another clearly elite quarterback, they\u2019d be willing to pay him at the top of the market, as they were early in Wilson\u2019s career. But if anything, getting to the Super Bowl with Darnold only proves them right in their belief that they can figure it out at QB. — Graziano<\/p>\n The quarterback matchup<\/p>\n Darnold vs. Maye<\/p>\n If anyone had this Super Bowl quarterback matchup on their bingo card, I\u2019d like to see it. What an improbable pairing — but certainly well-earned by both to make it here.<\/p>\n By the numbers, Maye has had a rough postseason. His two worst games of the season, by EPA per dropback and success rate, were the two most recent wins against the Broncos and Texans; the win over the Chargers in the wild-card round was also a below-average performance in both metrics. His sack rate has doubled in the playoffs, from 7.8% to 14.7%, and his completion percentage has gone from 9.1% above expectation to 5.8% below expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats.<\/p>\n