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Solar geoengineering could save the ice sheets \u2013 but stopping it could be catastrophic<\/p>\n
Martin Zwick\/REDA\/Universal Images Group via Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Solar geoengineering could be even more costly than unabated global warming if it is cut off suddenly, leading to a \u201ctermination shock\u201d of rapidly rebounding temperatures.<\/p>\n
As the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to climb<\/a>, interest is growing in solar radiation modification<\/a> (SRM) to cool the planet, such as by spreading sulphur dioxide aerosols<\/a> in the stratosphere to block sunlight.<\/p>\n But solar geoengineering would need to continue uninterrupted for centuries, or the warming that was \u201cmasked\u201d would come roaring back at a faster rate. Known as termination shock, this rebound would give humans and animals little time to adapt to the heat and could trigger climate tipping points like ice sheet collapse.<\/p>\n Based on established relationships between temperature increases and GDP loss, Francisco Estrada<\/a> at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and his colleagues modelled the risks of climate inaction compared with those of solar geoengineering.<\/p>\n If humanity fails to reduce fossil fuel emissions, temperatures could reach a median 4.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, causing economic damages of $868 billion, the researchers estimate. A hypothetical stratospheric aerosol injection programme beginning in 2020 that kept temperature rise to about 2.8\u00b0C could halve those damages.<\/p>\n But if the aerosol programme was suddenly terminated in 2030 and temperatures rebounded 0.6\u00b0C over the next eight years, damages could top $1 trillion by the end of the century. While the numbers might be higher or lower in real life, \u201cthe message doesn\u2019t really change\u201d, says Estrada. \u201cIt would be much worse if we have a termination shock than if we did nothing, if we had unabated climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n The study is innovative in estimating damages based not just on total warming but also on how fast it arrives, says Gernot Wagner<\/a> at Columbia University in New York.<\/p>\n Solar geoengineering \u201cis riskier than it looks at first glance\u201d, he says. \u201cThat is the contribution here.\u201d<\/p>\n The Silicon Valley start-up Make Sunsets has already released<\/a> more than 200 balloons of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere to sell emission offsets. That included a launch in Mexico that prompted the government to threaten a geoengineering ban.<\/p>\n The Israeli company Stardust has raised<\/a> $75 million and lobbied the US government about solar geoengineering. Two-thirds of scientists expect<\/a> large-scale SRM this century, according to a survey carried out by New Scientist last year.<\/p>\n