{"id":444093,"date":"2026-01-31T00:35:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-31T00:35:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/444093\/"},"modified":"2026-01-31T00:35:44","modified_gmt":"2026-01-31T00:35:44","slug":"following-the-money-ufc-325-betting-line-movements-tracker-volk-vs-lopes-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/444093\/","title":{"rendered":"Following the money: UFC 325 betting line movements tracker | Volk vs. Lopes 2"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 325<\/a> is happening this weekend (Sat., Jan. 31, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, and broadcast, for the second time ever, on Paramount+<\/a>. Our second main event of the Paramount+<\/a> era is a UFC Featherweight title rematch pitting champion Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes<\/a>. Volkanovski won the first fight, by unanimous decision, to reclaim the then-vacant title<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Our co-main for this one has popular Kiwi fighter, Dan Hooker, taking on hopeful title contender<\/a>, Benoit Saint-Denis, in the Lightweight division. Rounding out the main card is Rafael Fiziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy<\/a>, Tai Tuivasa vs. Tallison Teixeira<\/a> and Quillan Salkilld vs. Jamie Mullarkey<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The \u201cPrelims\u201d are headlined by Junior Tafa vs. Billy Elekana. Other notable fights on the \u201cPrelims\u201d include Cam Rowston vs. Cody Brundage and Jonathan Micallef vs. Oban Elliott. The Early \u201cPrelims\u201d on Saturday play host to the latest round of Road To UFC fights (just not this one<\/a>).<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been watching the lines (see them here<\/a>) for all the fights on UFC 325 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you\u2019ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds<\/a>).<\/p>\n

UFC 325 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 29: (L-R) Alexander Volkanovski of Australia and Diego Lopes of Brazil face off during the UFC 325 Press Conference at Sydney Event Centre on January 29, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Alexander Volkanovski (-146 +4.9%) vs. Diego Lopes (+120 -4.5%)<\/p>\n

Volkanovski\u2019s line, for this fight, opened at -166. And that\u2019s shortened a little, with the public thinking this will be a close contest. That feeling has seen Diego Lopes\u2019 opening +130 start to drop a little. I think these lines will be very close to a pick \u2018em by fight night.<\/p>\n

The line movement here is the opposite to what we saw ahead of their first fight. In their first fight Volkanovski opened at -130 and closed around -140. Lopes opened at +110 and closed at around +115. The lines converging here, instead of diverging, is a notable difference. Vegas\u2019 confidence in Volkanovski is also a lot stronger than it was in the first fight.<\/p>\n

So, we have Vegas backing Volkanovski stronger than they did last year. And we have the public feeling less strong about him than they did last year. It will be fascinating to see who is right on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Vegas were wrong about Volkanovski in his last fight, which wasn\u2019t against Lopes. He opened as the -175 favorite against Ilia Topuria, but the public were right to fade him. He closed at around -120 before being stopped by Topuria<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The public are right about Volkanovski a lot. They got the first Lopes fight right and the Topuria fight. They also got the rematch with Islam Makhachev right. Volkanovski opened at +215 for that and closed at around +220. And the public were right in his most recent fight with Max Holloway, too, taking him from a -146 favorite to a -175 favorite.<\/p>\n

The public are usually right about Lopes, too. Public money took his from -150 to -188 in his win over Brian Ortega. And he also went from -250 to -275 in his win over Dan Ige.<\/p>\n

So, who are you with? Vegas or the public?<\/p>\n

The public are batting 1000 with Volk. If they are right again, though, the belt will be leaving Australia this weekend.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Dan Hooker of New Zealand and Benoit Saint Denis of France face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Dan Hooker (+266 +18%) vs. Benoit Saint-Denis (-344 -6.8%)<\/p>\n

This fight opened with Hooker at +200 odds and Saint-Denis at -265. As you can see, the public thinks this fight is more lopsided than that. Money came in on the Frenchman very quickly after the odds were released. On Dec. 18, 2025, his odds fell immediately to -318. They hopped up a little, but have been steadily shortening ever since.<\/p>\n

This movement is clearly a result of the last fights we saw involving these two. Saint-Denis looked excellent in defeating Beneil Dariush and Mauricio Ruffy. Hooker looked totally lost against Arman Tsarukyan, a man who fights a little like Saint-Denis.<\/p>\n

This movement isn\u2019t as extreme as Hooker\u2019s last few fights, though. Against Tsarukyan, he opened at +260 and closed around +500. Against Mateusz Gamrot, who he beat, he opened at +220 and closed around +320. And against Jalin Turner, who he also beat, he opened at +154 and closed at around +235. The message seems clear, the public do not trust Hooker. They were proved wrong against Turner and Gamrot, but they doubled down with the Tsarukyan fight.<\/p>\n

The public have been hit and miss on Saint-Denis lately. He opened at -255 against Dariush, but then closed around -206. Against Ruffy he opened as the +175 underdog, but the public weren\u2019t totally OK with that. He closed around +148 for that fight.<\/p>\n

Saint-Denis has been inconsistent in his career and that seems to have made him hard for the betting public to pin him down. In this fight, though, it seems pretty obvious that Vegas, the public, and many pundits are all in agreement: Hooker has a very hard night ahead of him.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Rafael Fiziev of Kazakstan and Mauricio Ruffy of Brazil face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Rafael Fiziev (+101 +5%) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-124 -5.7%)<\/p>\n

There\u2019s been some interesting activity on this line. This opened as a pure pick \u2018em with both men at -110 odds. That changed immediately, though, with money coming in on Fiziev. That put him as a -160 favorite, early. More money would come in to make him a -190 favorite on Dec. 22. That would be the peak, though. Since then, money has been tricking in on Ruffy and that has brought the line close to that pick \u2018em situation we had at opening.<\/p>\n

Fiziev saw a lot of action on his previous fight, too. He opened as the -130 favorite against Ignacio Bahamondes, but the public put him into being a +124 underdog. He went on to win that fight, pretty convincingly.<\/p>\n

Ruffy has had a fair bit of public skepticism during his short UFC career. He was actually faded on his Contender Series fight, though. In his proper debut he opened as the +150 underdog against Jamie Mullarkey, but that shifted to -225 by fight time. He got a lot of support in his fight with James Llontop, going from -700 to as low as -1000. But he was faded a little in the King Green fight and then faded quite a lot on the Benoit Saint Denis fight.<\/p>\n

This is really a showdown between two guys whom the public have been all over the place with. Vegas has also had some issues picking the winner, too. I like Fiziev, but maybe this is an omen telling me to stay away.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Tai Tuivasa of Australia and Tallison Teixeira of Brazil face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Tai Tuivasa (+256 +1.7%) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-328 -2.3%)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m surprised Tuivasa isn\u2019t more of an underdog here. Vegas had him at +250, which I think is generous given his time off and his four fight losing streak. As you can see, we are still pretty close to that. However, Tuivasa has had a little support this time and his line actually dipped to +233 on Jan. 23. Since then, though, it\u2019s jumped back up to where it started.<\/p>\n

Teixeira opened at -300. Vegas has been a little conservative with Teixeira\u2019s opening lines. He was -250 against Derrick Lewis and closed at around -245. He did lose to Lewis, but the ending was a little funky there. He was just -157 to open against Justin Tafa. He closed at around -150 before quickly finishing the elder Tafa.<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Quillan Salkilld of Australia and Jamie Mullarkey of Australia face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Quillan Salkilld (-978 -3.8%) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+629 +14.3%)<\/p>\n

Salkilld is our biggest favorite on the card and it\u2019s easy to see why. Just go watch that truly sickening KO he scored on Nasrat Haqparast last time out (a fighter who has finished Jamie Mullarkey). Mullarkey is the short notice opponent and no one thinks he is winning this one.<\/p>\n

The public have backed Salkilld in every fight so far and have been proved right to do so.<\/p>\n

UFC 325 Late \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Junior Tafa of Australia and Billy Elekana face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Junior Tafa (+198 +16.1%) vs. Billy Elekana (-247 -11.9%)<\/p>\n

Elekana opened as the slight -175 favorite, but the public really liked that. So, now he\u2019s a pretty decent-sized favorite against Tafa, who is looking for his first win as a Light Heavyweight.<\/p>\n

The public were wrong about Elekana in his last fight. He opened at -350 and closed to -250 before choking newcomer Kevin Christian to sleep.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Cam Rowston of Australia and Cody Brundage face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Cam Rowston (-352 -4%) vs. Cody Brundage (+275 +6.7%)<\/p>\n

Rowston is the biggest favorite of his young UFC career here, opening at -300 and getting public support to shrink that further. He was the underdog in his last fight, against Andre Petroski. He opened at +118 and the public pushed him out to +160. As you can see, they\u2019ve changed their tunes this time around.<\/p>\n

Brundage, who I think is a live dog, won\u2019t be fussed about the long odds after his name. He\u2019s fought Bo Nickal and Mansur Abdul-Malik, after all. And in both contests he did better than you\u2019d expect a +900 and +675 underdog to do.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Jacob Malkoun of Australia and Torrez Finney face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Jacob Malkoun (-148 +16.5%) vs. Torrez Finney (+122 -39.6%)<\/p>\n

Finney is getting huge support in this fight. That begs the question, how many people have actually seen Torrez Finney fight?<\/p>\n

He opened at +210 against the more experienced Malkoun and his line has dipped down all the way to +125 making him one of the biggest movers on the card.<\/p>\n

Finney had similar support before his somehow both hilarious (and super boring<\/a>) win over Robert Valentin.<\/p>\n

UFC 325 Early \u2018Prelims\u2019<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Jonathan Micallef of Australia and Oban Elliott of Wales face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Jonathan Micallef (-136 -10%) vs. Oban Elliott (+111 +9.5%)<\/p>\n

This opened as a pick \u2018em with both men at -110. That\u2019s since changed a little to show the public favoring the Aussie who had an impressive debut last year. It\u2019s strange that this opened as a pick \u2018em. These two were due to fight in Sept. 2025 and Elliott opened as the -140 favorite for that one.<\/p>\n

Elliott lost big as a favorite in his last fight. He opened at -333 against Seokhyeon Ko (a late replacement) and closed close to -500. Ko then dominated him.<\/p>\n

Micallef opened as the underdog for his debut. He was +143 against Kevin Joousset and closed at +180.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Kaan Ofli of Australia and Yizha of China face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Kaan Ofli (+169 +3.3%) vs. Yizha (-208 -4.2%)<\/p>\n

There\u2019s not much change in this line between Ofli and Yizha. The public seem mostly fine with the assessment that the ultra fun Chinese fighter is more likely to win this than the recent The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) runner-up.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Sangwook Kim of South Korea and Dom Mar Fan of Australia face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Dom Mar Fan (-152 +10.3%) vs. Sangwook Kim (+125 -22.2%)<\/p>\n

I\u2019m nervous about these Road to UFC fights, given how many suspect betting activity we saw in UFC last year. There\u2019s been a bit of a dramatic swing on this one. Fan opened at -205, but that has lengthened quite a lot. The money came in on Kim pretty quickly, taking him from +175 to +145 in a matter of hours. The money for him has been slowly coming in since then.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Keiichiro Nakamura of Japan and Sebastian Szalay of Australia face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Sebastian Szalay (-138 +13%) vs. Keiichiro Nakamura (+113 -26.8%)<\/p>\n

There\u2019s some odd movement on this line, too. A bunch of money came in on Nakamura early. That turned his opening +170 to -120! Money for Szalay slowly came in after that, though. That is what pushed Nakamura back into plus odds.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: (L-R) Opponents Sulangrangbo of China and Lawrence Lui of China face off during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Sulangrangbo (-260 -91.6) vs. Lawrence Lui (+208 +50.4%)<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the weirdest line of the night, so much so that it got it\u2019s own article here on Mania<\/a>. This shift on Sulangrangbo is the biggest change I\u2019ve seen in two years, since I started doing this post. What does it mean? Who knows. But, I\u2019m not putting any money anywhere near this one.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: Sulangrangbo of China poses on the scale during the UFC 325 official weigh-ins at Hilton Sydney on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

UFC 325 Biggest Line Movements<\/p>\n

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 325:<\/p>\n

Sulangrangbo: From +165 underdog to a -261 favorite (-91.6%) (B)Torrez Finney: From +210 underdog to a +118 underdog (-39.6) (C)Keiichiro Nakamura: From +170 underdog to +113 underdog (-26.8%) (C)Sangwook Kim: From +175 underdog to a +124 underdog (-22.2%) (C)Dan Hooker: From +200 underdog to a +266 underdog (-18%) (A)<\/p>\n

Since I\u2019ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.<\/p>\n

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 8-50.<\/p>\n

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 14-10.<\/p>\n

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 3-8.<\/p>\n

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 6-5.<\/p>\n

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 5-3.<\/p>\n

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 2-0.<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – JANUARY 30: Cody Brundage poses on the scale during the UFC 325 Ceremonial Weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on January 30, 2026 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

UFC 325 Best Underdogs Bets<\/p>\n

Brundage is one of my favorite underdogs on this card. I think his wrestling will cause the inexperienced Cam Rowston some problems. And I also think Brundage has enough fire power on the feet to do well in case there\u2019s no wrestling in this one. If you can call Fiziev an underdog, then he\u2019s someone who is worth a look. I think, with his maturing game, he\u2019s a terrible match up for the one-dimensional Ruffy.<\/p>\n

Enough about me, though. What do you think? Tell me your favorite dogs on this card.<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 325: \u201cVolkanovski vs. Lopes 2\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC 325 is happening this weekend (Sat., Jan. 31, 2026) inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, and…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":444094,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[444],"tags":[49,48,641,33601,638,82,182216,139445,702,17056,8729],"class_list":["post-444093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-325","tag-ufc-on-paramount","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=444093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/444093\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/444094"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=444093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=444093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=444093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}