Heading into fourth-quarter 2025 earnings season for Canadian diversified financial companies, National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn continues to \u201cexpect an uneven and uncertain macroeconomic backdrop,\u201d but he continues to put \u201ca low probability on recession risks.\u201d <\/p>\n
\u201cWith neither tailwinds nor headwinds from a macro picture, companies delivering strong strategic execution with value upside will see the most upside in 2026,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
In a client note released before the bell, Mr. Gloyn revised his estimates and target prices for several companies in his coverage universe, reiterating his positive view on the property and casualty insurance sector.<\/p>\n
The analyst selected two stocks as his \u201ctop ideas\u201d for investors currently: <\/p>\n
* IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $82 target, up from $68 previously. The average target on the Street is $67.50, according to LSEG data.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect growth to outperform consensus as i) core businesses have returned to consistent inflows, ii) Rockefeller is now delivering positive earnings, and iii) ChinaAMC lapping easier comps,\u201d said Mr. Gloyn. \u201cAdditionally, IGM has signaled an increase in capital return, recently announcing a 5-per-cent NCIB for 2026 versus 2.5 per cent in 2025, and above consensus forecasts of 1-2 per cent. With $700 mln of unallocated capital, $400-million of FCF above the common dividend, and a payout ratio trending into the low-50s vs. a 60-per-cent target IGM has ample capacity to accelerate repurchases and raise the dividend, which would be the first increase in a decade. Value remains underappreciated, stripping out the value of strategic investments in ChinaAMC, Wealthsimple and Rockefeller implies the core platforms are trading at only approximately 5 times P\/E, well below peers at more than 11 times\u201d<\/p>\n * Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and a $59 target, up from $57. The average is $54.50.<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect TSU will continue to deliver double-digit top-line growth, mid-80-per-cent combined ratio, and mid-to-high teens ROE supported by ongoing strong specialty insurance operations, a scaling U.S. primary insurance platform, higher quality U.S. Programs business, and a rock-solid balance sheet,\u201d he said. \u201cIn our view, TSU has delivered solid results and demonstrated value in the U.S. Programs franchise while the market continues to price in an overly pessimistic level of risk around the legacy overhang. A move back toward its historical average P\/E implies over 40-per-cent upside before factoring in any earnings growth.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Gloyn also named a trio of \u201ccore holdings\u201d for investors, which he said are \u201cmust own if you don\u2019t already.\u201d <\/p>\n For those \u201ccore\u201d holdings, Mr. Gloyn\u2019s ratings and targets are:<\/p>\n Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $3,200 target (unchanged). The average target on the Street is $2,887.54, according to LSEG data.Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $50 target, up from $48. Average: $41.50.Brookfield Corp. (BN-N<\/a>\/BN-T<\/a>) with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and US$58 target, up from US$56. Average: $54.43.<\/p>\n “Fairfax: Our top idea in P&C. Least affected by softer insurance cycle, huge excess cash and capital position will allow for buybacks and minority interest purchases that drive ROE higher, value continues to be underappreciated. Element Fleet: Solid strategic execution continues to support double-digit EPS, FCF, dividend growth. Recent tech acquisitions like Autofleet and Car IQ will accelerate the digital transformation leading to revenue upside but more importantly, operating margin upside. Valuation is still extremely cheap at approximately 7-per-cent FCF yields vs. high quality peers trading sub-5 per cent. Brookfield Corp: we prefer the corp over the BAM \/ BBU plays in our coverage given the opportunity presented in the Insurance Strategy, upside from recovering real estate values, upside from active IPO\/capital markets backdrop to generate carried interest, and the benefit of investing at the forefront of the AI infrastructure build out. Valuation at 15 times P\/E leaves plenty of upside as peers trade in the high-teens to low-20s,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n Mr. Gloyn made one rating revision, moving ECN Capital Corp. (ECN-T<\/a>) to \u201ctender\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d with a $3.10 target, down from $5 and matching the average on the Street, on the expectation its acquisition by a group of investors<\/a> led by Warburg Pincus will proceed. <\/p>\n Mr. Gloyn\u2019s other target changes are:<\/p>\n Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $7 from $7.50. Average: $7.50.Goeasy Ltd. (GSY-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $210 from $245. Average: $192Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T<\/a>, \u201csector perform\u201d) to $77 from $69. Average: $69.33.<\/p>\n While TD Cowen analyst Cherilyn Radbourne warns the short-term environment for Canadian heavy equipment dealers “remains dynamic”, leading her to be \u201csomewhat cautious\u201d on the fourth-quarter of 2025, she believes the group\u2019s medium- to long-term earnings prospects are improving, seeing industry bellwether Caterpillar Inc.\u2019s (CAT-N<\/a>) results as \u201cvery encouraging.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cCAT achieved record Q4\/25 and 2025 sales\/revenues and has a record backlog of US$51-billion, up 70-per-cent-plus year-over-year, which extends beyond 2026,\u201d she said. \u201cCAT guided to 2026 sales\/revenue growth at the high-end of its 5-7-per-cent target CAGR (2024-2030) and positive price realization of 200 basis points. The company also noted strong utilization of an aging global mining fleet and highlighted that it provides an invisible layer of the tech stack needed to support AI, i.e., critical minerals, reliable power, and physical infrastructure. We have increased our valuation multiples for all 3 companies and rolled forward our target price horizon by one quarter to be based on 2027.\u201d<\/p>\n Ms. Radbourne outlined four reasons why she\u2019s optimistic about the trajectory of industry. They are: <\/p>\n \u201c1) Strong new equipment sales (2021-2025E) provide visibility to a future product support; 2) there is a long growth runway in power, related to data centers (Canada is behind), dist\u2019d power, and natural gas as a transition fuel; 3) commodity prices are very strong, including copper (Finning) and gold (Toromont); and 4) the Canadian federal government\u2019s impetus to expedite large infrastructure projects is positive.\u201d <\/p>\n She also noted valuation multiples are \u201cpushing higher because the Street does not have sufficient clarity on the timing\/magnitude of future infrastructure upside to reflect it in estimates.\u201d<\/p>\n With that view, Ms. Radbourne made adjustments to the three stocks in the space:<\/p>\n * Finning International Inc. (FTT-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $100 from $88. The average is $88.67.<\/p>\n Analyst: \u201cWe have trimmed our Q4\/25 EPS estimate for Finning to $1.05 vs. $1.10 previously, to reflect higher stock-based compensation (the share-price was up 15 per cent in Q4\/25) and to better recognize that Q3\/25 EBIT in Canada included an unusually high JV earnings contribution of $6-million. We have also increased our valuation multiple to 18.5 times vs. 17.0 times. Our revised estimate is 2 per cent below consensus of $1.07.\u201d<\/p>\n * Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T<\/a>, \u201cbuy\u201d) to $195 from $180. Average: $180.50.<\/p>\n Analyst: \u201cOur Q4\/25 EPS estimate for Toromont is unchanged at $1.83, which is 4 per cent below consensus of $1.90. Maybe we are too conservative, but consensus could be anchored on an unusually strong Q4\/24. We have increased our valuation multiple to 26.5 times vs. 25.0 times.\u201d<\/p>\n * Wajax Corp. (WJX-T<\/a>, \u201chold\u201d) to $28 from $25. Average: $29.<\/p>\n Analyst: \u201cWe have slightly reduced our Q4\/25 estimate for Wajax to $0.70, from $0.72, but remain 4 per cent above consensus. Wajax is lapping a particularly weak quarter where efforts to adjust inventory levels resulted in equipment sales at meaningfully lower margins, and more recent margin improvement driven by internal initiatives could result in a possible upside surprise. We have increased our valuation multiple to 8.0 times from 7.5 times.\u201d<\/p>\n Precious metals equity analysts at National Bank Financial raised their commodity price deck ahead of fourth-quarter earnings season as they continue to see \u201ca favorable market backdrop for gold and silver through 2026\u00a0despite recent volatility, as support from key drivers remains intact including rising levels of sovereign debt, persistent inflation, USD volatility, buoyant long-term yields, continued outlook for rate cuts and strong physical demand from Central Banks\/stablecoins.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cFurther, we expect recent Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to moderate vs. prior hawkish tendencies,\u201d they added. \u201cAlso benefitting silver is the ongoing, multi-year deficit prompting buyers to pay more for available supply, strategic export controls in China, robust demand for solar panels and high-value or niche applications, including AI data centres, defense, medical nanotechnology. <\/p>\n Citing their \u201cfavourable sentiment and the fluid price environment,\u201d the analysts raised their gold price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to US$5,200 per ounce from US$4,500 with their silver projection moving to US$100 per ounce from US$60. They also increased their long-term prices to US$3,200 and US$42, respectively, from US$3,000 and\u00a0US$37.50.<\/p>\n \u201cWe plugged in Q4\/25 metal and FX prices, and updated our estimates across our precious metals universe ahead of the Q4\/25 reporting period,\u201c they noted. \u201dConsensus ranges have largely narrowed for names that have reported Q4\/25 ops; while those that have not reported include ABX, AEM, BTO, CG, ELE, FNV, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, SSRM and WPM. Overall with respect to Q4\/25 reporting, based on material differences between our estimates and street consensus, pending catalysts or analyst views, we are:\u00a0constructive on ARTG and IMG\u00a0and\u00a0cautious\u00a0on FVI and WDO.<\/p>\n \u201c2026 guidance remains primary driver of sentiment for select names.\u00a0For companies that have reported guidance, we see emerging trends of higher costs y\/y after baking in inflation, higher profit sharing, and royalty payments, with capex and exploration budgets also higher y\/y to take advantage of stronger balance sheets, and elevated ROI on projects and drilling. Companys that have not reported 2026 guidance include AAUC, ABX, AEM, AGI, BTO, CG, DPM, ELE, FNV, GROY, K, MTA, MUX, NEM, OGC, OR, RGLD, SSRM, TFPM and WPM. Overall with respect to 2026 guidance, we are:\u00a0constructive on\u00a0ABX\u00a0with Loulo-Gounkoto ramping up production and possibly being included in guidance;\u00a0DPM\u00a0with expectations for Vares Au\/Ag production levels above tech report mine plan, offsetting y\/y declines at Ada Tepe and Bulgarian levies in Q4\/25;\u00a0GROY\u00a0post the Pedra Blanca\/ Borborema\u2019s addition to cash flowing assets; and\u00a0cautious on\u00a0BTO\u00a0given Fekola regional permitting remains pending, and Goose ramp-up in progress.\u201d<\/p>\n The analysts made a pair of rating revision alongside their changes: <\/p>\n * Mohamed Sidib\u00e9 moved Allied Gold Corp. (AAUC-T<\/a>) to \u201ctender\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d with a $44 target, matching the average and up from $41 previously, to reflect its acquisition by China\u2019s Zijin Gold International Co. <\/a>in a $5.5-billion deal. <\/p>\n * Don DeMarco lowered Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. (WDO-T<\/a>) to \u201csector perform\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d with a $28 target, down from $31 and below the $28.40 average, \u201cafter adopting 2026 guidance with lower-than-expected production at Kiena.\u201d <\/p>\n The analysts also raised their targets for the majority of the stocks in their coverage universe, led by the silver miners, which as a group are revised 40 per cent or more higher, with First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) seeing the largest increase ($52 from $29 versus a $27.94 average) due to \u201cstrong revisions incorporating 2026 guidance.\u201d<\/p>\n For senior producers, their changes are:<\/p>\n Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $320 from $300. Average: $302.89.Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $82.50 from $77.50. Average: $72.51.Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $93 from $88. Average: $89.02.Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to $60 from $52.50. Average: $51.83.Newmont Corp. (NEM-N<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d) to US$140 from US$120. Average: US$134.57.<\/p>\n The analysts also laid out their \u201ctop picks\u201d moving forward.<\/p>\n On a \u201cvaluation\/FCF basis,\u201d they are: Barrick, Elemental Royalty Corp. (ELE-X<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $37.50 from $30), IAMGOLD Corp. (IMG-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $35 from $34) and Torex Gold Corp. (TXG-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $88 from $85).<\/p>\n On a \u201cgrowth outlook,\u201d they are: Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $75), Endeavour Silver Corp. (EDR-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $29 from $20), Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $25) and G Mining Ventures Corp. (GMIN-T<\/a>, \u201coutperform\u201d and $60 from $45).<\/p>\n Following an \u201cincredible rally,\u201d Raymond James analyst Michael Barth lowered his recommendation for Enerflex Ltd. (EFX-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201cstrong buy\u201d on Wednesday.<\/p>\n \u201cWe upgraded EFX to Strong Buy in early December and simultaneously added it to our Analysts\u2019 Best Picks for 2026 list on the view that secular tailwinds in the core business, emerging opportunities in the power vertical, and other optionality was being underappreciated by investors,\u201c he said. \u201dThe stock has since returned 30 per cent in less than 2 months, outperforming the rest of our OFS coverage by 21 per cent, XEG by 24 per cent, and the SPTSX by 31 per cent. <\/p>\n \u201cGiven the impressive absolute and relative performance, we are downgrading EFX to Outperform. While we still see a reasonable valuation and multiple potential near-term catalysts, the stock is no longer in \u201cpound the table\u201d territory. Our target and estimates remain unchanged, although we note that our current estimates include no contribution from any wins in the power space or upside from a successful resolution on the Kurdistan project.”<\/p>\n Mr. Barth now thinks the Calgary-based company\u2019s share price \u201creflects a conservative value for the base business\u201d and thinks there is \u201cplenty of upside optionality still exists\u201d but investors \u201cget that optionality for free.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cOn our estimates, we believe that the base business is worth $26\/share (our DCF, which includes no value for power, is spitting out $26\/share),\u201d he explained. \u201cThat happens to be consistent with where the stock is trading today, which suggests that the base business is \u2018fully priced\u2019. To be fair, our model\/estimates lean conservative with little in the way of AMS [After-Market Services] growth, only moderate growth in EI from U.S. contract compression additions, flat ES [Engineered Systems] bookings from here, modest ES margin compression over the next couple of years, and no additional reductions in G&A intensity. We can fairly easily paint a picture where EFX outperforms this set of assumptions. We\u2019re hesitant to change estimates just yet, but note that EFX is currently wrapping up a strategic review and is likely to host an IR Day in the spring; it\u2019s totally possible that more clarity on strategic direction and the path forward causes us to review our estimates. In the meantime, we think investors can comfortably own EFX at $26\/share without having to make any stretch assumptions for growth.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the base business is arguably fairly valued (with some upside risk), we still think investors get the power optionality for free; assuming 5 years of power-related bookings upside in the ES business, we think that opportunity could be worth an extra $4\/share. We don\u2019t expect much in the way of tangible progress with 4Q25 results, but think it\u2019s reasonably likely ES bookings start to reflect progress here in 1Q26. Similarly, a successful resolution on the Kurdistan arbitration could be worth nearly $2\/share of additional value. Together that\u2019s $6\/share of potential upside to our target (23-per-cent upside) that could materialize in less than 12 months, ignoring any additional upside from AMS growth, improving G&A intensity, or better-for-longer ES margins.\u201d<\/p>\n He maintained a target of $26 per share, which exceeds the $25.01 average on the Street.<\/p>\n In a research report released before the bell titled All dressed for winter, still lacing the boots, Desjardins Securities analyst Gary Ho says Superior Plus Corp. (SPB-T<\/a>) should benefit from colder weather in both the fourth quarter of 2025 and so far in 2026,\u201c however he warns \u201drecent operational changes may delay this impact.”<\/p>\n \u201cWe await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB\u2019s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Ahead of the Feb. 19 release of the Toronto-based company\u2019s financial report, Mr. Ho is now projecting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of US$163.4-million, up from US$162-million previously, which is narrowly higher than the consensus estimate of US$161.3-million and up from US$159.2-million in the same period in fiscal 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile weather was favourable for both the U.S. (14 per cent colder than five-year average) and Canada (5 per cent), SPB may not fully capture the benefit of stronger demand in 4Q due to ongoing Superior Delivers\u2013related workforce and fleet rationalization,\u201c he said. \u201dThat said, unfulfilled orders are likely to shift into 1Q26. We left our 4QE EBITDA largely unchanged at US$163.4-million, which implies US$465-milliom in 2025, matching the guidance mid-point of US$465-million (up 2 per cent year-over-year).”<\/p>\n \u201cWe await new 2026 guidance and refreshed Superior Delivers and buyback expectations, as well as SPB\u2019s strategy to repay US$260-million in Brookfield prefs by mid-2027, if the share price does not warrant conversion.\u201d<\/p>\n Citing \u201cincreased uncertainty,\u201d Mr. Ho lowered his valuation multiple and target for Superior Plus shares to $8.75 from $9, but, pointing to a 24-per-cent potential return, he reiterated his \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $9.50.<\/p>\n \u201cOur investment thesis: (1) SPB is a leading energy distributor with recession-resistant attributes; (2) opportunities to improve the propane business through Superior Delivers, and (3) largely immune from tariffs\/geopolitical noise,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n TD Cowen analyst Tim James thinks Transat AT Inc.\u2019s (TRZ-T<\/a>) labour dispute with its pilots<\/a> in December will have a \u201cminimal impact\u201d on the Montreal-based company\u2019s first-quarter of fiscal 2026, expecting those results to \u201cbegin to demonstrate normalized margins based on resilient demand, return of grounded aircraft, ratified pilot contract, and Elevation initiative.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe forecast Q1\/F26 revenue up 3.6 per cent year-over-year to $859-million (consensus: $853-million) on 1.4-per-cent yield and 1.7-per-cent traffic,\u201d he said. \u201cWe believe resilient demand and return of a portion of grounded aircraft supports traffic and capacity (up 3.0 per cent) forecast. We forecast adj. EBITDA of $33.6-million (3.9-per-cent margin; cons: $20.8-million) on 150 bps of margin expansion. <\/p>\n \u201cConference call focus on booking trends and commentary on path to being free cash flow positive in F2026 (TD Cowen: negative). Our target multiple (3.5 times) reflects comparable valuations, travel demand outlook, competitive pressure, and increased financial risk for TRZ.\u201d<\/p>\n In a note previewing quarterly results for Canadian small-cap passenger air transportation companies, Mr. James said he see Transat possessing more upside than peer Chorus Aviation Inc. (CHR-T<\/a>) \u201cdue to valuation and our forecast for earnings growth based on demand outlook, return of grounded aircraft, recent debt restructuring, and cost-saving and revenue optimization initiatives.\u201d<\/p>\n He reduced his Street-high target for Transat shares to $5 from $5.50, remaining above the $3.30 average, with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n Mr. James\u2019s target for Chorus remains $31, exceeding the $29 average, also with a \u201cbuy\u201d recommendation.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe Chorus provides attractive 12-month upside, but expect the return could require additional patience as the market gradually attributes greater value to Voyageur, and the leveling out of CPA earnings declines comes into view for 2026\/2027. We believe its capital returns (buybacks & dividends) should award investors in the interim,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n While it was not \u201cimmune to the risk-off tone that weighed on data, tech, and professional services stocks,\u201d Raymond James analyst Frederic Bastien thinks Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q<\/a>, CIGI-T<\/a>) \u201ctook a pivotal step\u201d on Tuesday with its US$700-million acquisition<\/a> of Ayesa Engineering, its largest-ever transaction.<\/p>\n \u201cCIGI\u2019s 6-per-cent slide notably brings the stock\u2019s correction to 13 per cent since we flagged it as a high-conviction idea on Jan. 20 (versus a 1-per-cent gain for the S&P 500). We are doubling down today, upgrading the shares to Strong Buy [from an \u2018outperform\u2019 rating],\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Mr. Bastien thinks the deal for Ayesa, a engineering and project management firm headquartered in Seville, Spain, as \u201cfair valuation for a high-performing platform\u201d and believe its \u201cbenefits can\u2019t be understated.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAssuming a net-to-gross revenue ratio of approximately 80 per cent and high-teen EBITDA margins consistent with Ayesa\u2019s consulting-heavy profile, we derive an acquisition multiple of 12.5 times TTM [trailing 12-month] EBITDA (and 11.0 times FTM [forward 12-month] EBITDA), which we view as reasonable given the company\u2019s scale and strategic relevance,\u201d he explained. \u201cOur expectations are for Colliers to fund the transaction with debt, making it accretive to adjusted EPS to the tune of 5 per cent. The Ayesa deal will temporarily push CIGI\u2019s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio north of 3 times, but an improving CRE cycle and the capital-light nature of the combined business should allow for quick deleveraging.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThis strategic step expands CIGIs\u2019 engineering and project management platform, adds gravitas in transportation, water, buildings and energy verticals, and delivers greater scale and opportunity for clients and professionals. Just as importantly to us, Ayesa\u2019s culture of excellence and innovation aligns well with Colliers, supporting sustained growth and value creation. Over time and with patience, Europe should offer ample opportunities for complementary tuck-under acquisitions (per Englobe\u2019s playbook).\u201d.<\/p>\n Expecting no surprises from its fourth-quarter 2025 financial release on Feb. 13, Mr. Bastien raised his Colliers target to a Street-high of US$200 from US$195. The average is US$169.94<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Stifel\u2019s Daryl Young increased his target for shares to US$195 from US$190, keeping a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. <\/p>\n \u201cWe estimate that the transaction is accretive to our 2026\/2027 EPS estimates by 4.5 per cent\/6.7 per cent, respectively,\u201d said Mr. Young. \u201cOverall, we like the deal; it brings accretive margins, is synergistic with the EMEA project management platform, and provides immediate scale to complete tuck-in acquisitions (the business has an existing pipeline). Moreover, we understand that Ayesa has been reporting robust organic growth and has a healthy backlog that could support double-digit revenue growth in 2026\/2027 (we conservatively model mid- to high-single-digits). At 12.5 times LTM [last 12-month] EBITDA (11.0 times FWD), the deal is consistent with pricing for scaled engineering assets (and CIGI\u2019s acquisition of Englobe). Pro-forma leverage does tick-higher to 2.6 times, but we expect that to fall to the low 2.0s by late 2026 and do not anticipate any equity requirements.\u201d <\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * In a report on Canadian software stocks following Tuesday\u2019s selloff, Scotia Capital\u2019s Kevin Krishnaratne made a series of target price reductions: Healwell AI Inc. (AIDX-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $2 from $2.50; Descartes Systems Group Inc. (DSGX-Q<\/a>\/DSG-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to US$95 from US$115; Kinaxis Inc. (KXS-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $200 from $240; Vitalhub Inc. (VHI-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $12 from $15 and Well Health Technologies Corp. (WELL-T<\/a>, \u201csector outperform\u201d) to $6.50 from $7. The averages are $3.61, US$113.30, $220.40, $14.25 and $7.20, respectively.<\/p>\n “Software stocks have had a rough start in 2026, with the S&P TSX Capped Info Tech Index down 20 per cent year-to-date and BVP Cloud Index down 19.5 per cent. Yesterday\u2019s sell-off was induced by fears related to Anthropic\u2019s Claude Cowork\u2019s potential to disrupt SaaS models. While recent SW results have not necessarily shown any signs of disruption, we don\u2019t know what changes the \u201cAI Eats Software\u201d narrative. With this as the backdrop, we see select opportunities for outperformance within the SW category. We favour companies possessing strong platforms and workflow knowledge, and those who have articulated paths for AI monetization (directly or indirectly) that could drive upside to F26 estimates. Our favorite names are KXS and SHOP. KXS has been one of the most AI-ready firms in our coverage, with AI\/ML core to its workflows and recent Agentic initiatives (with pricing info soon to come) supporting its evolution from Supply Chain Planning to a Supply Chain Orchestration platform. SHOP enjoys strong \u201cnetwork effects\u201d we don\u2019t see being disrupted anytime soon, with Payments driving its model (consumer sentiment strong), while it leads the industry in Agentic Commerce, which could be additive to Retail (and drive upside to GMV),” said Mr. Krishnaratne.<\/p>\n * Raymond James\u2019 Craig Stanley became the first analyst to initiate coverage of Pacifica Silver Corp. (PSIL-CN<\/a>), a Vancouver-based company focused on the Claudia Project in Mexico, giving it an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and $2.85 target.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe PSIL offers attractive value at a market cap of $100-million and $28-million in cash, given the large land position, historical workings, numerous high-grade drill intercepts, a fully funded 2026 drill program, and geological potential in an under-explored region just three hours from a major city,\u201d said Mr. Stanley.<\/p>\n \u201cIn our opinion, it is too early to develop a mine model and instead estimate a resource potential multiplied by a per ounce value.\u201d<\/p>\n * Believing \u201cfavourable demographic trends and supply constraints support long-term cash flow growth,\u201c Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Mark Rothschild initiated coverage of Sienna Senior Living Inc. (SIA-T<\/a>) with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating and $24.50 target. The average on the Street is $23.10.<\/p>\n “Sienna offers investors the opportunity to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of seniors housing properties that should deliver healthy cash flow growth for the foreseeable future: \u2022 Demographic trends are driving growing demand while new supply is limited. \u2022 Occupancy has been improving and leading to upward pressure on rental rates. \u2022 The management team is experienced in operating seniors housing properties, redeveloping older properties, and completing accretive acquisitions. \u2022 The current valuation is attractive; particularly when compared to larger US peers,” he explained.<\/p>\n \u201cCanaccord Genuity believes that Sienna trades at an attractive valuation relative to US and Canadian peers when viewed on various valuation metrics. While the cash flow multiple is above the long-term average, we believe it is justified due to the strengthening in fundamentals for seniors housing properties, which is driving greater cash flow growth.”<\/p>\n * Following Tuesday night\u2019s quarterly release<\/a>, TD Cowen\u2019s Menno Hulshof raised his Suncor Energy Inc. (SU-T<\/a>) target to $81 from $74 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, while BMO\u2019s Randy Ollenberger hiked his target to $85 from $69 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average on the Street is $69.14.<\/p>\n \u201cVery strong Jan 5th operations update left little room for material, positive surprises. Q4 CFPS beat smaller than in recent q\u2019s but shouldn\u2019t lose sight of just how strong Q4 was. Outlook commentary likely back-pocketed for Mar. 31 Investor Day. We could see new 3-yr plan\/targets, select capacity re-rates, $5.5-6-billion capex over next several yrs, and improved long-term visibility,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n * After its Nasdaq-listed shares dropped 15.7 per cent on Tuesday on fears that AI could threaten its core legal division<\/a>, Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Aravinda Galappatthige lowered his Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-Q<\/a>, TRI-T<\/a>) target to US$130 from US$174 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is currently US$173.24.<\/p>\n \u201cFrom our standpoint, we very much doubt that these offerings impact TRI\u2019s legal products to law firms or even the in-house counsel of larger corporations,\u201d said Mr. Galappatthige. \u201cWe see significant distance between Anthropic\u2019s capabilities and TRI\u2019s extensive legal platform. In particular, we note that the breadth of sources that TRI draws content from (circa 3,500) and intensive annotations made on inputted documents (with 1,500 attorneys). Moreover, we note the importance of accuracy in the legal profession, and consequences for errors (or AI hallucinations). Put simply, turning off Westlaw for Claude\u2019s legal plug-ins would be tantamount to an investment manager discontinuing Bloomberg or FactSet for the same product. … An argument could be made around the pressure on TRI\u2019s sales to small law firms, but following recent divestitures, we suspect the exposure here is closer to 15%. Westlaw remains essential for courts, regulators, and law firms because it provides trusted, cited, and annotated primary law – something AI-native tools currently cannot match in terms of depth, provenance, or reliability.\u201d<\/p>\n