Hub AI<\/p>\n
Rising separatist sentiment in Alberta and Quebec is back in the spotlight\u2014and the economic stakes are substantial. New estimates, outlined below, suggest nearly 2 million jobs across Canada depend on interprovincial trade with these two provinces, and tens of billions of dollars or more could be at risk if either seriously pursues separation. The renewed attention follows reports that an Alberta sovereignty group met with individuals in the U.S. federal government and is seeking $500 billion in credit for a future independent Alberta. At a meeting between premiers and the prime minister last week, the premier of British Columbia called it treason, while Manitoba\u2019s premier (in more measured terms) warned of U.S. attempts to destabilize Canada during an unprecedented time. Meanwhile, there is a potential resurgence of Quebec separatism with the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois currently leading in the polls. Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned of \u201ca disaster\u201d if they were to form government. Of course, separatist sentiment isn\u2019t new. Since Confederation, some provincial leaders have occasionally expressed a desire to leave Canada. But with Quebec possibly electing a separatist government, and Alberta potentially holding a referendum, it\u2019s worth taking a closer look at what\u2019s at stake\u2014especially as Canada\u2019s economy is already navigating high uncertainty and weak productivity growth. In earlier work published in The Hub, I explored the long-term economic challenges Alberta might face were it to separate. Using estimates based on the United Kingdom\u2019s experience with Brexit, the evidence suggests that increased trade costs and a reduction in productivity would significantly weaken the province\u2019s long-run outlook. But there are more immediate and tangible risks, particularly to jobs and incomes. Millions of jobs depend on interprovincial trade Trade between Alberta and Quebec and the rest of Canada is substantial. Any disruption to those flows, either through actual separation or growing uncertainty, would reduce demand for traded goods and services and harm workers throughout the country. There is no official estimate of the number of jobs dependent on interprovincial trade. But using the most recent Statistics Canada data along with some fairly standard methods, I construct my own detailed estimates of employment linked to interprovincial trade between Alberta and Quebec and the rest of the country. The numbers may surprise you. In Alberta, for 2022\u2014the latest year for which this type of estimate is possible\u2014I find that just over 300,000 jobs were dependent on exports to the rest of Canada. This includes not only those directly involved in producing exports but also jobs further up the supply chain: suppliers to exporters, and their suppliers, and so on. That\u2019s about 14 percent of all jobs in the province. And this figure doesn\u2019t even count those jobs at businesses that rely on imported inputs from outside the province. Interestingly, that means more Alberta jobs depend on trade with the rest of Canada than depend on trade with the United States! Not just Alberta\u2019s problem This interdependence flows both ways. I estimate that Ontario has more than 200,000 jobs that depend on exports to Alberta. British Columbia has around 120,000, and Quebec roughly 60,000. Nationally, about 750,000 jobs in 2022 were dependent on interprovincial trade with Alberta alone. Given growth since then, a reasonable estimate for today likely exceeds 800,000 jobs. And these aren\u2019t all oil and gas jobs. In Alberta, the largest exposure is in manufacturing (43,000 jobs), followed by professional and scientific services (37,000), wholesale trade (34,000), and transportation and warehousing (29,000). In the rest of the country, professional and scientific services are most exposed, with about 83,000 jobs dependent on exports to Alberta, followed by 53,000 in manufacturing. Of course, separation wouldn\u2019t necessarily mean all these jobs would disappear. But using the U.K.\u2019s experience as a benchmark, a long-term loss of about 15 percent of trade volumes might be a reasonable place to start. Applied to the roughly 800,000 jobs that currently depend on trade to and from Alberta, that implies around 120,000 jobs nationally could be at risk. Quebec separatism risks even more Quebec represents an even larger exposure. If the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois wins the provincial election later this year\u2014as current polling suggests\u2014a referendum on independence may follow. Roughly 500,000 jobs in Quebec depend on exports to the rest of Canada, and an additional 400,000 jobs elsewhere in the country are tied to trade with Quebec, most of them in Ontario. Beyond jobs, the broader economic stakes are even more substantial. Losses beyond jobs I estimate that the total value of GDP tied to interprovincial trade between Alberta and the rest of Canada reached $140 billion in 2022. For Quebec, that figure was over $130 billion. Combined, that\u2019s more than 10 percent of the entire Canadian economy. And this isn\u2019t some measure of the value of trade, which is larger still. Instead, it\u2019s a measure of the wages, salaries, corporate profits, and other sources of income generated by that trade. If trade volumes were to fall by 15 percent, again just to illustrate a potential magnitude, that could result in GDP losses of roughly $40 billion and risk something on the order of 300,000 jobs\u2014a serious short-term hit to an economy already struggling. What\u2019s at stake All told, about 1.7 million jobs were dependent on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec in 2022. Today, that number could easily approach 2 million. The short-term risks from rising separatist movements in both provinces are very real. While the depth of this sentiment\u2014especially in Alberta\u2014may not be as significant as some polling suggests, governments at all levels would be wise to consider whether their policies or rhetoric are inadvertently fanning the flames. Federally, that may mean reassessing regulatory and policy decisions that have slowed national economic growth or contributed to regional frustrations. Provincially, it may require reflecting on whether some actions are emboldening separatist voices. Canada is a democracy, of course, and people are free to advocate for separation. But those pursuing or encouraging that path should weigh the economic trade-offs, which carry real consequences right across the country. No matter the path forward, one thing is clear: the potential short-term economic costs of separation\u2014lost jobs, lower incomes, and reduced GDP\u2014should be taken seriously. Especially at a time when Canada\u2019s economic strength\u2014and its future prosperity\u2014is anything but certain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Hub AI Rising separatist sentiment in Alberta and Quebec is back in the spotlight\u2014and the economic stakes are…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":456595,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[49,48,295,66],"class_list":{"0":"post-456594","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-environment","11":"tag-science"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/456594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=456594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/456594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/456595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=456594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=456594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=456594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}