{"id":458246,"date":"2026-02-06T19:59:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-06T19:59:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/458246\/"},"modified":"2026-02-06T19:59:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T19:59:08","slug":"lessons-to-learn-from-toto-wolffs-pessimism-plus-f1s-super-bowl-crossover","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/458246\/","title":{"rendered":"Lessons to learn from Toto Wolff\u2019s pessimism. Plus: F1\u2019s Super Bowl crossover"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic\u2019s F1 newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive Prime Tire directly in your inbox twice a week during the season and weekly in the offseason.<\/p>\n

Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we\u2019re wondering if we can still climb hills and get muddy at preseason testing next week, even though it\u2019s public.\u00a0Last time was so fun<\/a>!<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve got three teams (and one rhetorical flourish) under our microscope today. I\u2019m Patrick, and Luke Smith will be along shortly. Let\u2019s get to it.<\/p>\n

Turn That Frown \u2026 : Wolff\u2019s guide to managing expectations<\/p>\n

I think Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff has developed an advanced system of strategic pessimism.<\/p>\n

Mercedes enters the 2026 season with new regulations, a new engine formula (historically their sweet spot) and a new driver lineup after Lewis Hamilton\u2019s departure to Ferrari. Early testing suggests they might finally be back on top.<\/p>\n

According to Wolff\u2019s comments this week<\/a>, he is having absolutely none of it. In 2022, Mercedes\u2019 radical \u201czeropod\u201d design was supposed to be a terrific aerodynamic innovation. Instead, it was so fundamentally flawed that Mercedes spent four years retooling while Red Bull and McLaren dominated. No wonder Wolff refused to play into the hype around his 2026 team this week.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we can learn from his approach:<\/p>\n

1. Redefine success downward:\u00a0Your car just completed 500 laps at Barcelona, 60 more than any competitor. Wolff\u2019s response was, \u201cAt least it doesn\u2019t look like a turd.\u201d<\/p>\n

Notice:\u00a0Wolff doesn\u2019t say the car looks good. He\u2019s merely confirmed it has surpassed the baseline of fecal matter. This is expert-level expectation management.<\/p>\n

2. Treat optimism like a virus:\u00a0Lando Norris, who\u00a0played padel<\/a> with Russell recently, has said the Mercedes driver is \u201cgiddy\u201d about the upcoming season. Oddsmakers have made him the championship favorite.<\/p>\n

The healthy public response:\u00a0Quarantine. Even Russell has learned the Mercedes way of publicly demurring. His response to becoming the betting favorite was, \u201cI didn\u2019t feel anything.\u201d This is a team that has built immunity to false hope through exposure therapy \u2014 specifically, exposure to skinny sidepods that couldn\u2019t win races.<\/p>\n

3. Assume you\u2019re wrong:\u00a0\u201cI\u2019ve too often set my expectations in the wrong place,\u201d Wolff admits. And then another heart breaks. Another head aches.\u00a0I\u2019m so much older than I can take<\/a>, etc.<\/p>\n

The solution:\u00a0Downplay. Is your car fast? Probably just because Barcelona was cold. Are rivals complaining about your engine loophole? Well \u2026<\/p>\n

4. Assume your rivals are wrong-er:\u00a0When the media mentioned competitors raised concerns about Mercedes finding an engine loophole worth up to 0.4 seconds per lap, suddenly, humble Toto disappeared. His response: \u201cGet your s\u2014 together.\u201d\u00a0There\u2019s\u00a0that confidence!<\/p>\n

The lesson:\u00a0Don\u2019t really have a lesson here. Just amazed it only took us about a month into 2026 for someone in F1 to tell other people in F1 to get their \u201cs\u2014 together.\u201d<\/p>\n

5. Refuse to believe until race day:\u00a0\u201cI won\u2019t believe we have a shot until I see it in the results at Melbourne,\u201d Wolff says. Not Bahrain testing. Not qualifying.\u00a0Actual race results on March 8.\u00a0And, you know what? Fair.<\/p>\n

The philosophy:\u00a0Can\u2019t buy into the hype if we don\u2019t look at it.<\/p>\n

The full story on Mercedes\u2019 preseason showing and that engine drama is\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

One-and-Done?: Not if Norris can help it<\/p>\n

Two months ago (yes, only two months ago),\u00a0Lando Norris celebrated\u00a0<\/a>his first F1 world championship by partying until sunrise and\u00a0ending the night at McDonald\u2019s<\/a>.<\/p>\n

This week, he\u2019s back at McLaren\u2019s headquarters preparing to defend that title, carrying the No. 1 on his car for the first time since Max Verstappen owned it in 2022. But something\u2019s different about Norris heading into 2026: He\u2019s found peace with the possibility that he might never win another championship. Could that paradox make him more dangerous?<\/p>\n

\u201cIf I never do, I\u2019m still happy. I still achieved one,\u201d Norris told reporters this week,\u00a0a sentiment that echoes Verstappen\u2019s own words after his 2021 title win. As Luke writes, it\u2019s not complacency, but a baseline of contentment that could free him from the pressure that complicated his rocky first half of 2025.<\/p>\n

Read the full story on how\u00a0the hunter became the hunted here<\/a>. Hey, speaking of Luke, let\u2019s go talk to him in the paddock.<\/p>\n

Inside the Paddock with Luke Smith: F1\u2019s Super Bowl moment<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll be watching Sunday\u2019s Super Bowl with a tinge of disappointment. My team, the Los Angeles Rams, was so close yet so far from making it, but at least Matthew Stafford (rightly)\u00a0was named the MVP<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But what\u2019s the Super Bowl got to do with F1? Well, this year, quite a bit.<\/p>\n

Cadillac will be using an advertisement slot during the game to reveal the livery for its first F1 car in 2026, staking its claim to be America\u2019s team on the biggest stage imaginable.<\/p>\n

Everything Cadillac has done so far\u00a0has been big and about making a statement<\/a>. The whispers I\u2019ve heard about the ad suggest this will be no different, going big at a moment when the eyes of America \u2014 and much of the world \u2014 will be watching.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s good news for Cadillac, and for F1 as a whole. Being part of the Super Bowl, even in this small way, would\u2019ve been unimaginable a decade ago. So many doors have opened since then, but this play by Cadillac feels like another step toward entrenching itself into American sports culture.<\/p>\n

(Patrick here again, to say thanks Luke. As a Broncos fan, I also will be watching the Super Bowl in mourning. Let\u2019s \u2026 let\u2019s talk about something else.)<\/p>\n

Just One Edit: Williams\u2019 murky horizon<\/p>\n

Williams sacrificed its 2025 season to get a head start on 2026\u2019s new regulations. The bet seemed to pay off, finishing fifth in the constructors\u2019 championship with two podiums. Now, though? Things are \u2026 murky. (The correct use of the term!)<\/p>\n

Williams\u00a0missed the crucial Barcelona preseason test<\/a>\u00a0because its new car wasn\u2019t ready.\u00a0Team principal James Vowles now admits there\u2019s \u201ca murky horizon,\u201d\u00a0with some parts of the car \u201cabsolutely championship level\u201d while others \u201chave a long way to go.\u201d<\/p>\n

Read why Williams\u2019 horizon\u00a0remains unclear here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

A note on \u201cmurky horizons\u201d:\u00a0The entire point of a horizon is that you can see it. It\u2019s literally where the sky meets the earth \u2014 the clearest visual line nature provides. Water can be murky. Situations can be murky. But a horizon? That\u2019s just called fog, and if you\u2019re navigating by a foggy horizon, you\u2019ve got bigger problems than finishing fifth in the constructors\u2019 championship.<\/p>\n

We appreciate Vowles\u2019 commitment to inventing new ways to say \u00af\\_(\u30c4)_\/\u00af out loud, but analogies must be bound by the same physical constraints as the rest of us. I have had too much coffee this morning, and am sorry.<\/p>\n

Outside the Points<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfce\ufe0f F1 isn\u2019t an Olympic sport, but that didn\u2019t keep me from enjoying learning about drivers who have\u00a0competed at the Winter Olympics<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcdd And, finally, don\u2019t forget about testing in Bahrain next week, and the week after (Feb. 11-13 and\u00a0Feb. 18-20).\u00a0We\u2019ll let you know in the next edition how to watch those and follow along our analysis on the ground.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Prime Tire? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Prime Tire Newsletter | This is The Athletic\u2019s F1 newsletter. Sign up here to receive Prime Tire directly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":458247,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[441],"tags":[49,48,578,576,577,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-458246","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-formula-1","8":"tag-ca","9":"tag-canada","10":"tag-f1","11":"tag-formula-1","12":"tag-formula1","13":"tag-sports"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458246","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=458246"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458246\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/458247"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=458246"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=458246"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=458246"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}