The latest data from the EU Earth observation agency Copernicus found that average Arctic sea ice extent in January was 5.5 per cent below normal, the third-lowest level recorded in 48 years of satellite observations.<\/p>\n
John Methven, professor of atmospheric dynamics at Reading university, said the \u201cunusually warm\u201d Arctic basin temperatures in January, which contributed to the lower sea ice concentrations in parts, had geopolitical ramifications.<\/p>\n
\u201cAs Arctic sea ice continues to shrink, shipping routes around the Arctic Ocean are staying ice-free for longer periods on both the Canadian and Russian sides,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
This was \u201cattracting more human activity in the region\u201d, including military operations and commercial shipping. The melting ice<\/a> also had \u201cimportant security implications\u201d, he said, pointing out that \u201cthick sea ice has helped conceal submarines for decades\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAs it thins and retreats, it becomes harder to hide naval vessels. This is changing the strategic landscape in the Arctic,\u201d Methven said.\u00a0<\/p>\n Copernicus said sea ice concentrations were much below average in Baffin Bay, between Baffin Island and the west coast of Greenland, the northern Barents Sea, including between Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, and the Labrador Sea between Greenland and Canada.<\/p>\n At the same time, parts of the north-eastern Atlantic including the Norwegian Sea \u2014 stretching from Norway to the tips of Iceland and Greenland \u2014 as well as the area towards Scotland, had recorded the warmest sea surface temperature on record for January at as much as 1C above average for the 1991-2020 reference period.<\/p>\n Julien Nicolas, senior climate scientist at the Copernicus climate intelligence team, noted that January showed a \u201csharp contrast\u201d in temperature patterns globally.<\/p>\n Even as parts of North America, northern Europe and Siberia were much colder than average, the daily average temperature around Baffin Bay, the Barents Sea and Svalbard \u201cfrequently exceeded 15C above average\u201d, he said.<\/p>\n Despite the lower-than-usual ice across parts of the Arctic, Copernicus said that Hudson Bay, off north-eastern Canada, was fully ice covered in January after a \u201cmuch-delayed freeze-up in December\u201d, and above-average ice cover developed in the Greenland Sea, the body of water to the east of Greenland.\u00a0<\/p>\n Fran\u00e7ois Gemenne, an expert on environmental geopolitics and climate change<\/a>, and a professor at HEC Paris business school, said security implications for the region would include an increase in maritime transport, but believed it was unlikely that Greenland<\/a> would be part of future major shipping routes.<\/p>\n Recommended<\/p>\n \u201cIn the long run, yes: hot temperatures will have a negative impact on security,\u201d Gemenne said. \u201cThey will make the ice cap melt and thus make drilling for oil, gas, rare earth and critical minerals easier.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIn the short term, unless the US is indeed planning to invade soon, it should have a limited impact. But it does make Greenland more accessible.\u201d<\/p>\n Globally, last month was the fifth warmest January on record, as temperatures reached 1.47C above the pre-industrial average, even as parts of the world experienced a severe cold snap.\u00a0Scientists believe extreme weather events are exacerbated by the atmospheric shifts related to global warming.<\/p>\n Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said: \u201cJanuary 2026 delivered a stark reminder that the climate system can sometimes simultaneously deliver very cold weather in one region, and extreme heat in another.\u201d<\/p>\n Climate Capital Where climate change meets business, markets and politics.\u00a0Explore the FT\u2019s coverage here<\/a>.<\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/https:\/\/images.ft.com\/v3\/image\/raw\/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F2edd07.jpeg\")
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