Lindsay James, investment strategist at wealth managers Quilter, warns that the picture is \u2018rather bleak at the moment\u2019.<\/p>\n
\u201cA long list of data revisions from the ONS has revealed the UK economy barely kept its head above water in the final quarter of last year, with GDP growth coming in at just 0.1% after downward revisions to the previous two data prints. December saw a meagre uplift of 0.1%, which was in line with expectations, but November\u2019s growth has been revised down to 0.2% from the 0.3% first reported.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Christmas period was weak by historical standards, and that is laid bare in today\u2019s data. The services sector, which had previously been noted as the largest contributor, showed no growth and its impact was revised down from 0.2% to nothing in the three months to November too. Surprisingly, production output grew by 1.2%, having fallen by 0.1% in the three months to November, but it was outweighed by a fall of 2.1% in the construction sector which followed a 0.9% fall previously.<\/p>\n
Scott Gardner, investment strategist at JP Morgan Personal Investing says the economy failed to hold onto the stronger growth seen in early 2025:<\/p>\n
\u201cThe UK economy ended 2025 firmly in the slow lane, undershooting expectations and remaining in a low gear in the final quarter of the year as businesses and consumers digested the Chancellor\u2019s November Budget. This marks a clear reversal in fortunes for the economy after strong growth shown in the first half of the year failed to carry over into the rest of 2025.<\/p>\n
\u201cMany will be hoping that the slow pace of economic expansion in the final quarter is only temporary after the Jaguar Land Rover shutdown stunted growth in the Autumn and led to a sharp fall in productivity. Services performed well over December, but construction and industrial production activity declined. Consumer spending showed more promising signs and has bounced back as real wage growth has fed through into higher retail and online spending.<\/p>\n
![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/2074.jpg\")
Photograph: ONS<\/p>\n
The Unite union are calling for more investment to lift growth; their general secretary Sharon Graham says:<\/p>\n
\u201cToday\u2019s figures are further proof that the UK economy will not get the growth we were promised until we reverse our historic levels of underinvestment.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe figures also show that real household disposable income fell in 2025. Families up and down the country are getting poorer in real terms.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe need to stop the rot and start delivering for everyday people.\u201d<\/p>\n
Share<\/a><\/p>\n Key events<\/p>\n Show key events only<\/p>\n Please turn on JavaScript to use this feature<\/p>\n BoE deputy governor: reasonable to expect rate cut over next couple of meetings<\/p>\n A Bank of England deputy governor has predicted that UK interest rates will be cut again soon.<\/p>\n On a visit to Manchester, Sarah Breeden told the Business Live website<\/a> (no relation) that a rate cut could come in the next couple of meetings.<\/p>\n She said:<\/p>\n \u201cIf we continue to have the economy develop as we expected and if there are no shocks \u2013 to be clear those are two big ifs\u2026 I think it\u2019s reasonable to expect there to be a cut over the next couple of meetings.\u201d<\/p>\n Breeden is one of the four members of the Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee who voted to cut rates last week, but were outvoted by the other five<\/a>.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Bank of England could cut rates in March to spur growth<\/p>\n Britain\u2019s weak growth<\/a> will put more pressure on the Bank of England to lower interest rates.<\/p>\n The Bank held borrowing costs unchanged last week, but the money markets narrowly expect a cut in March.<\/p>\n Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist at Abderdeen, says:<\/p>\n \u201cThe UK economy managed to eke out some very modest growth at the back end of last year. On a purely national accounting basis, the economy started 2026 with very little momentum. But looking at various surveys, there were some tentative signs that sentiment turned a corner and started to improve after the budget last year, which could help deliver a pick-up in activity this year.<\/p>\n However, recent political uncertainty may see that sentiment bounce reverse. And it is still hard to see what will drive a sustained increase in the underlying rate of growth this year.<\/p>\n All of which means that the Bank of England is set to continue to lower interest rates to try to support growth, and we expect the next cut at the March meeting.\u201d<\/p>\n TUC general secretary Paul Nowak is calling for \u2018quickfire\u2019 rate cuts:<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s welcome that the economy kept growing in December, and last year\u2019s growth of 1.3% was the strongest for three years.<\/p>\n \u201cBut many workers are not yet feeling the benefit in their pockets. Household incomes are still being squeezed by a relentless cost-of-living crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cMany working families don\u2019t have any money left over to spend on the things that keep our economy moving \u2013 meals out, shopping on the high street, and family days out. That\u2019s bad for families and bad for the wider economy.<\/p>\n \u201cThis doom loop must end. Ministers must stay laser-focused on cutting working people\u2019s household costs and improving living standards this year.<\/p>\n \u201cAnd the Bank of England must go further and faster with quickfire interest-rate cuts in the months ahead.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Britain\u2019s economy ended 2025 on \u201ca lacklustre note\u201d, says James Smith, developed markets economist at ING, with growth of just 0.1% in the final quarter.<\/p>\n Smith adds:<\/p>\n What\u2019s particularly eye-catching from the release is just how weak business investment (-2.7%) and construction (-2.1%) came in during the final few months of the year.<\/p>\n The former will have been heavily influenced by volatile car production, linked to a major cyberattack at the tail-end of the third quarter, even if it\u2019s tempting to blame it on the wider uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget and the weakness in business confidence.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>New housebuilding slumped in Q4<\/p>\n However, today\u2019s GDP report also shows the government is struggling to hit another target \u2013 to boost housebuilding<\/a>.<\/p>\n Private housing new work fell by 3.6% in October-December, which helped to drag output in the wider construction sector down by 2.1% in the quarter.<\/p>\n Budget concerns stalled construction output by an estimated 2.1% across 7 of the 9 sectors in Q4 2025. New work and repair and maintenance both fell by 2.6% and 1.5%, respectively but it was new housing, which fell the hardest down by 3.6%. Overall development confidence remained\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/PVHl0S7Kz4<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) February 12, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK ‘fastest growing G7 economy in Europe’ in 2025<\/p>\n Today\u2019s GDP report gives us a chance to compare the UK\u2019s economic performance in 2025 against its major rivals.<\/p>\n Keir Starmer promised to deliver the fastest growing economy in the G7 \u2013 and today the government can boast that the UK outpaced the largest economies in Europe.<\/p>\n UK GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% annually in 2025, the ONS reported this morning (see earlier post<\/a>), stronger than in 2024 but still pedestrian compared to long-term trend growth rates.<\/p>\n That beats France, which reported 0.9% growth in 2025<\/a>, Italy, where the economy grew by 0.7% from the year earlier, and Germany, where gross domestic product rose by just 0.2% in 2025. \u201cWeak, weak, weak\u201d, as Tony Blair once put it.<\/p>\n However, we can\u2019t do a full G7 league table yet as we don\u2019t have Q4 GDP data from Japan, the US or Canada.<\/p>\n Canada\u2019s GDP is officially estimated to have risen by 1.3% in 2025, which would match the UK, while the US is expected to grow more quickly than that.<\/p>\n Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves points out that the UK is the fastest growing G7 economy in Europe, saying:<\/p>\n \u201cThanks to the choices we have made, we\u2019ve seen six interest rate cuts since the election, inflation falling faster than predicted and ours is the fastest growing G7 economy in Europe.<\/p>\n The Government has the right economic plan to build a stronger and more secure economy, cutting the cost of living, cutting the national debt and creating the conditions for growth and investment in every part of the country.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK ‘ended 2025 firmly in the slow lane’ – what the experts say<\/p>\n Reaction to the news that the UK grew by just 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025 (see earlier post<\/a>) is rolling in, and City experts aren\u2019t impressed.<\/p>\n Lindsay James, investment strategist at wealth managers Quilter, warns that the picture is \u2018rather bleak at the moment\u2019.<\/p>\n \u201cA long list of data revisions from the ONS has revealed the UK economy barely kept its head above water in the final quarter of last year, with GDP growth coming in at just 0.1% after downward revisions to the previous two data prints. December saw a meagre uplift of 0.1%, which was in line with expectations, but November\u2019s growth has been revised down to 0.2% from the 0.3% first reported.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Christmas period was weak by historical standards, and that is laid bare in today\u2019s data. The services sector, which had previously been noted as the largest contributor, showed no growth and its impact was revised down from 0.2% to nothing in the three months to November too. Surprisingly, production output grew by 1.2%, having fallen by 0.1% in the three months to November, but it was outweighed by a fall of 2.1% in the construction sector which followed a 0.9% fall previously.<\/p>\n Scott Gardner, investment strategist at JP Morgan Personal Investing says the economy failed to hold onto the stronger growth seen in early 2025:<\/p>\n \u201cThe UK economy ended 2025 firmly in the slow lane, undershooting expectations and remaining in a low gear in the final quarter of the year as businesses and consumers digested the Chancellor\u2019s November Budget. This marks a clear reversal in fortunes for the economy after strong growth shown in the first half of the year failed to carry over into the rest of 2025.<\/p>\n \u201cMany will be hoping that the slow pace of economic expansion in the final quarter is only temporary after the Jaguar Land Rover shutdown stunted growth in the Autumn and led to a sharp fall in productivity. Services performed well over December, but construction and industrial production activity declined. Consumer spending showed more promising signs and has bounced back as real wage growth has fed through into higher retail and online spending.<\/p>\n Photograph: ONS<\/p>\n The Unite union are calling for more investment to lift growth; their general secretary Sharon Graham says:<\/p>\n \u201cToday\u2019s figures are further proof that the UK economy will not get the growth we were promised until we reverse our historic levels of underinvestment.<\/p>\n \u201cThe figures also show that real household disposable income fell in 2025. Families up and down the country are getting poorer in real terms.<\/p>\n \u201cWe need to stop the rot and start delivering for everyday people.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Real GDP per head grew in 2025, but….<\/p>\n Real GDP per capita, a key measure of living standards, picked up last year after stagnating in 2024, today\u2019s GDP report shows.<\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics reports that real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 1.0% annually in 2025, following no growth in 2024.<\/p>\n However, real GDP per head is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October-December, the second consecutive quarterly fall.<\/p>\n Real GDP per head adjusts for changes in population levels, so is a better measure of whether people are actually getting better off.<\/p>\n A chart of UK GDP per head Illustration: ONSShare<\/a>ONS: Economy continues to grow slowly<\/p>\n Here\u2019s ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown on this morning\u2019s news that the UK economy grew by 0.1% in October-December<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cThe economy continued to grow slowly in the last three months of the year, with the growth rate unchanged from the previous quarter.<\/p>\n \u201cThe often-dominant services sector showed no growth, with the main driver instead coming from manufacturing. Construction, meanwhile, registered its worst performance in more than four years.<\/p>\n \u201cThe rate of growth across 2025 as a whole was up slightly on the previous year, with growth seen in all main sectors.<\/p>\n \u201cInitial estimates show GDP per head was up on the previous year despite it contracting slightly in each of the last two quarters.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>UK economy grew 0.1% in December, November revised down<\/p>\n The UK economy also grew by 0.1% in December alone, the first month after Rachel Reeves\u2019s budget.<\/p>\n But there\u2019s bad news in the monthly data \u2013 November\u2019s growth has been revised down to 0.2%, from the first estimate of 0.3%. The economy still shrank by 0.1% in October.<\/p>\n In December, Services grew by 0.3%; production fell by 0.9% and construction output dropped by 0.5%.<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Annual growth picks up<\/p>\n On an annual basis, the UK economy picked up a little speed in Labour\u2019s first calendar year in office.<\/p>\n GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.3% annually in 2025, up from growth of 1.1% in 2024.<\/p>\n That\u2019s still relatively weak by historic standards.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.08 EST<\/p>\n UK GDP report released<\/p>\n Newsflash: The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2025.<\/p>\n That\u2019s a little slower than many economists had expected, with the services sector stagnating during the October-December period, and follows a 0.1% increase in the previous quarter.<\/p>\n The Office for National Statistics says:<\/p>\n In output terms, growth in the latest quarter was driven by an increase of 1.2% in production, while the construction sector fell by 2.1% and the services sector showed no growth.<\/p>\n More to follow\u2026<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Updated at\u00a002.23 EST<\/p>\n With less than five minutes to go until the big GDP reveal, here\u2019s Sandra Horsfield of Investec Economics on the UK\u2019s growth performance\u2026..<\/p>\n \u201cThe big picture is that the UK economy had defied the gloomy popular narrative and outperformed expectations during 2025 – our forecast equates to GDP growth of 1.4% for the full year, whereas the consensus forecast in January 2025 had been for 1.2% GDP growth.<\/p>\n \u201cWe project a similar story of resilience and outperformance relative to consensus for 2026, as utilities investment and, eventually, housebuilding accelerate – the latter with a little help from further falls in interest rates too.<\/p>\n \u201cThe consensus forecast for this year is 1%, against our own forecast of 1.3%.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n Ahead of the UK growth report, we have \u201ctentative signs\u201d that the housing market in England and Wales is recovering from a months-long slowdown.<\/p>\n The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said its members were feeling more optimistic about the year ahead than at any time since December 2024, as inquiries from new buyers, agreed sales and house prices became less negative in January.<\/p>\n More here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Share<\/a><\/p>\n City economists are split about what to expect at 7am.<\/p>\n A Reuters poll found that forecasts for growth in the final three months of 2025 range from 0% to 0.2%.<\/p>\n Robert Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said GDP growth \u201ccould tip to 0.2%\u201d in Q4 thanks to a pick-up in the services sector, but is predicting 0.1%.<\/p>\n Wood explains:<\/p>\n \u201cWe think the broad thrust from activity in the services sub-sectors in December indicates that budget uncertainty is already fading quickly.\u201d<\/p>\n Share<\/a>Introduction: UK GDP report coming up<\/p>\n Good morning. We\u2019re about to get a report card on the Labour government\u2019s first calendar year in power.<\/p>\n Growth data for the British economy in December, and for the fourth quarter of 2025, will be released at 7am UK time<\/p>\n They\u2019re expected to show modest growth in the October-December period \u2013 with economists forecasting an expansion of around 0.2% in a quarter dominated by Rachel Reeves\u2019s November budget.<\/p>\n That would be a pick-up on the 0.1% growth reported in July-September.<\/p>\n