Ottawa sees Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as the enemy, much as her predecessor, Peter Lougheed, was in federal crosshairs decades ago, says political insider Norman Spector. And, he adds, Ottawa is \u201cworking hard to destroy her, with much more support in Alberta than in the \u201870s, rather than working with her to address Alberta\u2019s concerns.\u201d<\/p>\n
In a televised address Thursday evening, Smith changed up the game, in effect, giving Albertans an alternative to the pro-separatist vs. status quo referendum question expected to be put to Albertans in October. She\u2019s given Albertans a third, less radical option, Norman observes, \u201cin effect, she\u2019s divided the vote of Albertans who are dissatisfied with the status quo.\u201d<\/p>\n
In the provincial referendum she announced on Thursday, scheduled for Oct. 19, Albertans will be asked yes\/no questions about provincial immigration, and collaboration with like-minded provinces to amend the Constitution to give more powers to provinces.<\/p>\n
\u201cShe put meat on the bones of her oft-stated position: a sovereign Alberta in a united Canada,\u201d Norman tells me. \u201cIt will be interesting to see if this lessens the criticism of her being a separatist, whether Carney and other provinces take up her proposals and agree to restart constitutional negotiations and whether Ottawa enters into negotiations toward an immigration agreement with Alberta.\u201d<\/p>\n
Smith was facing growing pressure to denounce Alberta independence proponents \u2014 from the NDP opposition and well-organized pro-federalist campaigns in the province, and from other premiers. B.C. Premier David Eby demanded Smith condemn as \u201ctreasonous\u201d meetings by Alberta separatists with Trump administration officials, and Ontario\u00a0Premier Doug Ford publicly called on Smith to take a stand against the separatists. Smith\u2019s defiant response: \u201cI\u2019m not going to demonize or marginalize a million of my fellow citizens when they\u2019ve got legitimate grievances.\u201d<\/p>\n
How does Norman interpret Smith\u2019s tabling of a third, less radical option? She\u2019s adopted former Quebec premier Robert Bourassa\u2019s approach \u2014 that led to more traditional federal-provincial negotiations like we saw at Meech and Charlottetown \u2014 \u201crather than the knife-to-the-throat strategy that (Stephane) Dion\u2019s father recommended as the only way to bring about change,\u201d Norman asserts.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s not optimistic this approach will be any more successful for Alberta now than it was for Quebec in 1986. Will Ottawa and the other provinces cooperate, he asks. \u201cThey did at the beginning of Meech, but other provinces and First Nations added items and it failed in the end in the Charlottetown referendum.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s very hard to amend the Constitution,\u201d he says, emphatically.<\/p>\n
I\u2019ve interviewed Norman a few times to talk about what happens behind closed doors in federal-provincial relations in Canada. He was part of Ontario\u2019s delegation at the 1979 First Ministers Conference, and part of B.C.\u2019s delegation at the same meetings in 1981, before moving to Ottawa in 1986 to mediate federal-provincial relations during the Canada-U.S. free trade negotiations.\u00a0After that, he was Brian Mulroney\u2019s chief of staff.<\/p>\n
We had also connected, earlier in the week, to talk about what\u2019s unfolding in Alberta; Norman observes that Smith is getting pummelled, \u201cmainly for political reasons and ideological reasons, both internally and externally.\u201d Whereas over 40 years ago, he recalls, Lougheed could go toe-to-toe with Ottawa and speak for Alberta, with little opposition from Albertans.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m seeing quite a bit of what I saw in Toronto in the \u201870s happening now,\u201d Norman shares, \u201cparticularly in media and in Ford\u2019s position.\u201d He can\u2019t resist taking a jab at Ford, suggesting the Ontario premier is \u201cmore bellicose and much less sophisticated than Bill Davis.\u201d<\/p>\n
Lougheed was vilified for the same reasons as Smith, Norman asserts, but there are differences. \u201cCanada has changed and Alberta has changed, and he (Lougheed) was able to fight PET (Pierre Elliott Trudeau) to a draw.\u201d<\/p>\n
In their heyday, B.C. premier Bill Bennett and Lougheed \u201cadmired each other and worked well together,\u201d he elaborates. As well, Saskatchewan premier Allan Blakeney was not an enemy and the NDP in Alberta was basically non-existent.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnother thing that\u2019s different,\u201d Norman explains, \u201cis that Smith has been under attack across the board.\u201d She\u2019s challenged the Canadian consensus\u00a0in multiple ways, and become a target, he observes. \u201cPolicy-wise, she\u2019s a bigger threat than Lougheed, but in her mannerisms,\u201d he observes, \u201cshe\u2019s not more provocative.\u201d<\/p>\n
And to my great alarm, he adds, \u201cNot sure how much the gender thing matters, but it\u2019s hard to dismiss it.\u201d<\/p>\n
What\u2019s critically different now is Trump, who is watching and perhaps waiting<\/p>\n
Smith\u2019s in a tight spot; we agree. Nearly three months after the much-vaunted signing of an energy MOU between Ottawa and Alberta, no significant progress on a new private-sector bitumen export pipeline to Asian markets has been reported. Last week, Enbridge\u2019s CEO announced the company will not lead or fund a West Coast pipeline venture.<\/p>\n
With that in mind, before Smith\u2019s speech I had asked Norman: \u201cWhat\u2019s your advice to the Alberta premier?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019d advise her to address the province, state her position clearly and point to the (pipeline) MOU as her way of addressing Albertans\u2019 concerns,\u201d he responds. And, tell Albertans she\u2019ll report back \u2014 one week before any separation referendum (which has yet to be triggered via petition) \u2014 on the results achieved as a result of the MOU.<\/p>\n
Norman\u2019s recommending hardball; dial up the pressure on Ottawa and the rest of Canada. \u201cShe has to make it starker,\u201d Norman asserts, hint more strongly of the consequences, but never use the \u201cs\u201d word. \u201cWhat\u2019s critically different now,\u201d Norman ominously cautions, \u201cis Trump, who is watching and perhaps waiting.\u201d<\/p>\n
Smith had initially used the knife-at-the-throat strategy employed by Quebec in decades past, Norman observes. \u201cIt has worked fairly well in forcing change in Ottawa,\u201d he suggests, \u201cand I can understand why a premier of Alberta is looking at Quebec not just because of equalization!\u201d<\/p>\n
Canadians resented Quebec employing that strategy, Norman acknowledges, but Quebecers were united and Ontario fearful about Quebec leaving, and took it seriously. \u201cTrump, in my opinion,\u201d he cautions, \u201cis why we should be just as concerned about Alberta leaving.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cCarney is ragging the puck with Trump, and I suspect he\u2019ll go to the polls before July and try to preempt Smith with the same move,\u201d Norman warns. \u201cCarney has an open road paved by Trump,\u201d he asserts, \u201cand Canadians need to understand the threat.\u201d<\/p>\n
And if he\u00a0were advising Carney? \u201cI\u2019d advise him to take the concerns of Alberta seriously and make sure that the MOU does not turn out to be a nothingburger and, with never-say-never Trump watching and perhaps waiting, to forget about an election now, however tempting that might be.\u201d<\/p>\n
But, Norman observes, \u201cthere\u2019s no knife in what she\u2019s now proposing.\u201d<\/p>\n
Smith has turned down the heat, taken the pressure off Carney, and the wind out of the sails of the secessionists, Norman observes, and in doing so, has reduced the risk of Trump jumping in. Yet, he observes, \u201cit remains to be seen what cooperation with Ottawa produces on the pipeline front.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI should say one last thing: If Carney doesn\u2019t take the MOU seriously and really screws Alberta, (Smith) still has the option of making a different speech a week before Albertans vote in the referendum.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ottawa sees Alberta Premier Danielle Smith as the enemy, much as her predecessor, Peter Lougheed, was in federal…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":492655,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[194295],"tags":[901,197781,49,48,53105,2659,197780,20739,86512],"class_list":["post-492654","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ottawa","tag-alberta","tag-albertans","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-danielle-smith","tag-mark-carney","tag-norman-spector","tag-ottawa","tag-peter-lougheed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/492654","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=492654"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/492654\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/492655"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=492654"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=492654"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=492654"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}