The UFC\u2019s annual Mexico City card goes down this weekend, with a makeshift main event between former champion and Mexico native Brandon Moreno taking on Lone\u2019er Kavanagh. Moreno was originally booked for a different opponent, but this is still an exciting flyweight bout between a former champion and an intriguing young prospect.<\/p>\n
The 13-fight card starts at 5:00 p.m. ET on Saturday and airs on Paramount+.<\/p>\n
One of the first \u201caha!\u201d moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.<\/p>\n
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can \u201cbuy\u201d or \u201csell\u201d events. These markets are usually efficient, with the \u201cprice\u201d eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.<\/p>\n
While this is less true in MMA \u2014 where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA \u2014 it\u2019s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they\u2019re wrong.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL \u201cLuck Rankings,\u201d I\u2019ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and\/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.<\/p>\n
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.<\/p>\n
UFC Mexico City odds as of Monday and via DraftKings<\/a> except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n UFC Mexico City Predictions & Luck Ratings I\u2019ve been a massive fan of Lone\u2019er Kavanagh since his appearance on the Contender Series \u2014 in part because he paid off my +450 bet<\/a> in the first fight of the 2024 season. With that said, I can\u2019t think of a tougher scenario for a short-notice fight than a five-rounder in Mexico City.<\/p>\n This will be the first-ever five-round fight for Kavanagh, who is coming off an upset loss to Charles Johnson last August. Kavanagh was dominating that fight before getting caught late in the second round \u2014 just like now-champion Joshua Van before him \u2014 but fading down the stretch as he did doesn\u2019t do much to instill confidence in him in a 25-minute fight.<\/p>\n On the positive side, Kavanagh has had a couple weeks\u2019 notice, and was preparing for a fight in early March, so he\u2019s not coming in completely unprepared. I\u2019m not sure if that\u2019s enough given the notoriously difficult conditions in Mexico City, which feature both extreme elevation and poor air quality most of the time.<\/p>\n Those conditions are nothing new for Moreno, who has three prior UFC fights in Mexico City, including two five-rounders. The former champion is coming off a loss to Tatsuro Taira that was potentially an early stoppage, but he is still only 32 years old and not quite past his peak. He\u2019s also only ever lost to champions or title challengers, so this is a significant step down for him.<\/p>\n That makes the moneyline in this fight roughly appropriate, but I\u2019ll be looking for some version of late or live props on Moreno, who should be far better prepared for the championship rounds in this fight.<\/p>\n Verdict: Fairly Valued<\/p>\n Ernesta Kareckaite (-340) vs. Sofia Montenegro (+270)<\/p>\n
\nBrandon Moreno (-238) vs. Lone\u2019er Kavanagh (+195)<\/p>\n