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<\/p>\nOil ends the month on a firm footing as Iran tensions simmer, but muted attention on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting could set the stage for an unexpected production hike.<\/p>\n
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Friday, February 27, 2026<\/p>\n
Oil prices are finishing February on a high note, with the month\u2019s last traded week posting a $1 per barrel gain as US-Iran tensions are mounting. Indirect talks held between Washington and Tehran this week in Geneva yielded no results, and Trump\u2019s \u201910- to 15-day\u2019 deadline will be running out soon. Amidst all this, media attention to the upcoming OPEC+ summit is surprisingly tepid, potentially tempting Saudi Arabia to announce yet another OPEC+ production increase for April.\u00a0<\/p>\n
OPEC+ Spoils Oil Bulls\u2019 February Party. According to media reports, OPEC+ members<\/a> are considering raising the oil group\u2019s production quota by 137,000 b\/d, resuming output hikes after a three-month hiatus in Q1, as Riyadh expects a price boost from military tensions between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n Trump Plays Mind Games with Lukoil. The Trump administration has slowed down the sale of international assets owned by Russia\u2019s largest private producer, sanctioned<\/a> in late October 2025, pushing the initial February 28 deadline to April 1 for a potential $22 billion Carlyle deal to be closed.<\/p>\n US Weakens Oil Pressure on Cuba. The US Treasury Department said it would authorize<\/a> companies seeking to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba\u2019s private sector, suggesting that the Caribbean island\u2019s prolonged fuel shortages could be eased, with a gasoline-laden tanker already waiting for departure.<\/p>\n Europe Wants Wider Support for Its Ban. The European Union intends to coordinate<\/a> its plan to impose a full maritime services ban on Russian crude exports with other G7 countries, having failed to implement the measure as part of its 20th sanctions package, with Greece and Malta remaining vexed.<\/p>\n Saudi Loading Woes Breathe Life into LPG. Asian prices of liquefied petroleum gas soared to their highest since late March 2025, at $600 per tonne, after Saudi Aramco called force majeure on LPG exports from its Juaymah port on the country\u2019s east coast, citing<\/a> a collapse in a jetty support structure.<\/p>\n Europe Revolts Against Its Own ETS. Italy\u2019s industry minister Adolfo Urso called<\/a> for the suspension of the European Union\u2019s carbon trading mechanism (ETS), citing \u2018perverse\u2019 financial speculation, surprisingly joined by Germany, which called for a quick revamp of Europe\u2019s carbon pricing.<\/p>\n Kazakhstan\u2019s Wounded Giant Returns. Kazakhstan\u2019s Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said that oil production<\/a> at the country\u2019s largest oil field Tengiz is now close to full capacity after a month-long disruption caused by a power plant fire, still some 15% below the project\u2019s 950,000 b\/d plateau.<\/p>\n US Sticks to Maximum Pressure on Iran. Simultaneously to nuclear talks in Geneva, the US Treasury Department has sanctioned<\/a> 12 more tankers linked to Iran\u2019s petroleum and petrochemical trade, including 5 LPG carriers that aided Iran\u2019s continuously growing trade relations with China.<\/p>\n Top US LNG Exporter Moves into Taiwan. Leading US LNG developer Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) has signed<\/a> a term 25-year liquefied natural gas supply deal with Taiwan\u2019s CPC, vowing to deliver 1.2 million tonnes of LNG per year, equivalent to 5% of the East Asian country\u2019s annual gas consumption.<\/p>\n China Eyes Multi-Billion Refining Entry. Angola\u2019s state oil company Sonangol is reportedly<\/a> in talks with several Chinese financial institutions to lock in a giant $4.8 billion loan to finance the construction of its planned 200,000 b\/d Lobito refinery, the country\u2019s first borrowing from China since 2017.<\/p>\n Asia Braces for Steep Price Hikes. As US-Iran military tensions ratcheted up medium sour grades across the Middle East, with the Dubai M1-M3 spread up by almost $1.20 per barrel compared to January, buyers of Saudi Arabian barrels are bracing for steep month-over-month hikes in Saudi formula prices.<\/p>\n Qatar Eyes Further LNG Expansions in 2030s. Despite having 48 mtpa of upcoming capacity yet to be commissioned, QatarEnergy is pushing<\/a> ahead with the engineering, procurement and construction contract for its 16 mtpa North Field West project, awarding it to Technip, eyeing an end-2031 start.<\/p>\n Zimbabwe Export Ban Spark Lithium Rally. The government of Zimbabwe halted exports of lithium concentrate this week, seeking to promote domestic processing and clamp down on illegal shipments of the ore, sending<\/a> prices worldwide up by more than 5% as Guangzhou futures hit $26,000 per tonne. By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n
Iran Restarts Gas Exports to Its Neighbour. Even if at reduced rates of 7 MCm\/day, Tehran has nevertheless restarted<\/a> exports of natural gas to neighbouring Iraq this week after a two-month-long hiatus that was triggered by Iran prioritizing domestic heating needs over the winter period.<\/p>\n