How Canada can crack the diverse India market<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in India with clear ambitions to move quickly toward a Canada\u2013India trade agreement. The geopolitical logic is sound, rooted in diversification, Indo-Pacific cooperation, and increasingly aligned strategic interests.<\/p>\n
But successive Canadian governments have tried\u2014and largely failed\u2014to unlock India\u2019s massive market at scale. India liberalizes selectively, opening sectors where imports support domestic growth while maintaining tight protection where political sensitivity is highest. Early gains are therefore most likely where India requires external supply or technology\u2014energy security, industrial inputs, and advanced technologies\u2014meaning Canada\u2019s strategy must prioritize sequenced commercial outcomes rather than broad economy-wide concessions.<\/p>\n
Luckily, there\u2019s already a blueprint: Canadian pension funds have laid incredible groundwork, having invested over $70 billion in India, which can open up commercial entry points.<\/p>\n
We identify some sectors where Canada can make inroads in the Indian market.<\/p>\n
Agriculture: Domestic sensitivities, big trade<\/p>\n
Agriculture remains Canada\u2019s largest export sector to India, yet also one of its most politically constrained. Current measures\u2014a 30% duty on Canadian yellow peas and 10% tariffs on lentils\u2014are designed to protect Indian farmers and manage food-price stability.<\/p>\n
India frequently adjusts tariffs, licencing rules, and procurement conditions in ways that effectively cap import volumes, particularly for pulses where Canada is a leading supplier.<\/p>\n
These policies function as domestic economic management tools and can shift quickly with harvest outcomes or inflation pressures, creating persistent uncertainty for Canadian exporters. Clearer import frameworks would help.<\/p>\n
Energy: Displacing Russian oil and gas<\/p>\n
India\u2019s energy demand is expanding across oil, gas, and electricity generation faster than any advanced economy, creating structural alignment with Canada\u2019s resource base.<\/p>\n
Yet current trade highlights the gap between potential and reality: Canada\u2019s largest energy export to India today is coal, not oil or natural gas\u2014demonstrating that infrastructure and commercial pathways are limiting the relationship.<\/p>\n
India\u2019s effort to diversify suppliers, notably Russia, under pressure from the U.S., creates an opening for Canada to reposition itself as a longer-term supplier of crude, LNG, and nuclear fuel.<\/p>\n
Long-term oil and LNG purchase orders\u2014not diplomatic announcements\u2014will determine whether alignment translates into sustained export growth.<\/p>\n
Nuclear: Powered by cooperation<\/p>\n
India\u2019s planned reactor expansion, targetting roughly 100 GW of capacity by 2047, requires secure fuel supply, while Canada remains one of a limited number of politically reliable uranium exporters.<\/p>\n
Uranium trade operates on long planning horizons and structured supply arrangements, making it less exposed to short-term commodity volatility than most resource trade.<\/p>\n
Cooperation typically extends beyond fuel into engineering services, safety systems, workforce training, and regulatory collaboration that deepen industrial ties over time.<\/p>\n
A uranium agreement would signal that the bilateral reset has moved beyond diplomacy into sustained economic cooperation.<\/p>\n
Talent and culture: Soft people power<\/p>\n
Talent mobility and diaspora ties remain foundational infrastructure for the commercial relationship, underpinning investment and business linkages across sectors.<\/p>\n
Pressures surrounding international students and domestic post-secondary capacity mean mobility policies must balance economic opportunity with political sustainability at home.<\/p>\n
Film and media collaboration represents a practical early opportunity, as Bollywood production increasingly seeks global filming locations that \u201cHollywood North\u201d can provide.<\/p>\n
Industries: Beyond commodities<\/p>\n
India\u2019s growth constraints increasingly lie in systems\u2014grids, logistics, emissions management, and industrial efficiency\u2014not simply access to raw materials.<\/p>\n
Canadian firms are competitive in these enabling technologies, allowing Canada to participate as a solutions partner alongside a resource exporter.<\/p>\n
Pairing energy exports with clean technology and digital optimization broadens the relationship beyond commodity cycles and supports incremental, repeatable commercial integration.<\/p>\n
Trade with India will advance not through political momentum alone, but by aligning commercial incentives with India\u2019s domestic priorities. Canada\u2019s success will ultimately be measured not by what paper is signed but what follows: goods shipped, projects financed, and supply relationships durable enough to expand over time.<\/p>\n
\u2013Thomas Ashcroft, Global Issues Policy Lead<\/p>\n
Back to the Future: Lessons from a Post-WWII Tin Agreement<\/p>\n