Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they\u2019re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good.<\/p>\n
Every year, we see some players produce at a rate that is a big outlier versus the rest of their career, and they hardly ever keep it up. So I thought it\u2019d be a good idea to take a look at some players who overperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get worse, especially when percentages don\u2019t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it\u2019s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you\u2019re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for players to avoid in this season\u2019s draft.<\/p>\n
Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions:<\/p>\n
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings \u2013 After Kuemper was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings<\/a> last summer as a salary cap dump, I don\u2019t think anyone envisioned him turning his season around to the point where he was a Vezina finalist. But, he did just that thanks to a .922 save percentage and a +20.91 goals saved above expected, partially do to a strong Kings defensive system. The bad news: his SV% was .007 higher than his career average. The good news: 2023-24 saw him finish .025 below his career average, so last season was just a positive regression (he was a candidate for that in last year\u2019s positive regression list<\/a>). So, while he won\u2019t be this good next season, expect him to fall closer to his career mark of .915.<\/p>\n Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals \u2013 McMichael won\u2019t be the only Washington Capitals<\/a> player you\u2019ll see today, which you should probably expect from the team that led the league in shooting percentage both at 5v5 and at all strengths. McMichael had just a 10.39% on-ice SH% in his career, compared to a 13.1% rate this season, so expect his overall point production to dip a bit more in 2025-26. Considering that there will be plenty of Capitals expected to regress as well, the fact that his point totals were largely helped because of that on-ice SH% (read: his teammate\u2019s unsustainable performances) will make him more vulnerable to regression.<\/p>\n Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs \u2013 Stolarz cracked last year\u2019s edition of this list<\/a>, as even in his role as a backup for the Florida Panthers<\/a>, he was putting up phenomenal numbers. He had another fantastic<\/a> season with a .926 SV% and 25.89 5v5 GSAx while backstopping the Toronto Maple Leafs<\/a>, and was a big reason they won the division last season. He still outperformed his career SV% by .008, but with back-to-back seasons with a .925 SV% or higher under his belt now, he\u2019s creeping closer to \u201cthis is who he is\u201d territory. Of course, the big question is if he can do it in a season with more than 34 games played.<\/p>\n Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington Capitals<\/p>\n 2024-25 Stats:\u00a020 goals, 46 assists, 66 points Kuemper is not the only player from the cap-dump swap between the Kings and Capitals in 2024 to make this list, as Dubois also found himself on the luckier side of puck in 2024-25. While it didn\u2019t earn him any notoriety like Kuemper (he got just a second and fifth place vote for the Selke Trophy), it did allow him to eclipse the 60-point mark for the fourth time in his career, and set personal highs in assists (46) and points (66). He still isn\u2019t worth his $8 million cap hit, but the Capitals managed to salvage some value this season after it looked putrid in 2023-24.<\/p>\n Dubois did also get some positive regression from his horrid 2023-24 campaign (which saw him sport an on-ice SH% 2.05% lower than his career rate), but he was definitely luckier in 2024-25 than he was unlucky in 2023-24. That was largely due to the unsustainable offense from the Capitals last season, especially on the second line with McMichael (an honorable mention for this list) and Tom Wilson (who was also considered). We already saw a step back in Dubois\u2019 game in the playoffs (only three assists in 10 games), and expect more of that in 2025-26.<\/p>\n Morgan Geekie, Boston Bruins<\/p>\n 2024-25 Stats:\u00a033 goals, 24 assists, 57 points Geekie has seen his game take significant strides since joining the Boston Bruins<\/a>. After a career-high of just nine goals and 28 points prior to his time in Boston, Geekie already showcased that he had more offensive flair with 17 goals and 39 points in a middle-six role in 2023-24, but last season saw that game raised to another level. As the Bruins got worse and sold off more pieces in 2024-25, Geekie found himself alongside superstar David Pastrnak for most of the season, and reaped the reward of 33 goals and 57 points.<\/p>\n Of course, it shouldn\u2019t be a surprise that Geekie benefitted from some luck with that performance. His 22% SH% and 12.94% on-ice SH% were much higher than what he\u2019s usually put up in his career, so that\u2019s a strong indication that his performance isn\u2019t sustainable, at least at this level. That said, the Pastrnak factor does weigh on this a little bit. If Geekie is playing with the star winger, then it\u2019s possible that he can continue to perform like this. But if the Bruins look at him as a player that can drive his own line away from Pasta, I\u2019d expect his play to take a step back.<\/p>\n Vladislav Namestnikov, Winnipeg Jets<\/p>\n 2024-25 Stats:\u00a011 goals, 27 assists, 38 points Namestnikov has found new life in his NHL career since joining the Winnipeg Jets<\/a>, as his back-to-back seasons with 37 and 38 points in 2023-24 and 2024-25 are the most productive years of his career since his time riding shotgun with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in 2017-18 with the Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a>. The performance of the Jets\u2019 second line with Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers helped the Jets to their first Presidents\u2019 Trophy last season, and after two seasons with this line together, it\u2019s clearly paid off for Namestnikov.<\/p>\n Unfortunately, that chemistry is about to be dismantled. Ehlers left in free agency to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes<\/a>, and with Jonathan Toews joining the fold, there\u2019s a solid chance that Perfetti and Namestnikov will be split up so that one of the two can center the third line. On top of that, there is a bit more unsustainability behind Namestnikov\u2019s performance in 2024-25, as nearly half of his points were secondary assists, compared to only 35.14% in 2023-24. The loss of Ehlers will likely see the Jets as a whole take a step back, but no player may see it impact their game more than Namestnikov.<\/p>\n J.J. Peterka, Utah Mammoth<\/p>\n 2024-25 Stats:\u00a027 goals, 41 assists, 68 points If there\u2019s any player on this list I could see proving me wrong and demonstrating that their unsustainable performance is just a new gear to their game, it\u2019s Peterka. He\u2019s clearly the most talented player in this group, with 28- and 27-goal seasons under his belt, and he scored them at a sustainable rate based on what we\u2019ve seen from his career. On top of that, he\u2019s the only player changing teams, with the Utah Mammoth<\/a> trading for him and betting on his performance with a $7.7 million AAV for five years, so it\u2019s possible that a new environment will allow him to thrive even more.<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the outlier?:\u00a0On-ice SH% was 4.37% higher than career average<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the outlier?:\u00a0SH% was 7.4% higher than career average, on-ice SH% was 2.59% higher<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the outlier?:\u00a047.37% of points were secondary assists<\/p>\n
What\u2019s the outlier?:\u00a0On-ice SH% was 2.98% higher than career average<\/p>\n