Luis Robert Jr.’s .662 OPS might not be what the White Sox had hoped for this season, but the 28-year-old center fielder has had a dynamic season on the basepaths. Robert enters Thursday with 30 stolen bases, and the White Sox will take on the Mariners in one of only four games on the MLB schedule today. Robert’s listed for as high as +320 at Caesars to steal a base, and that’s one of our top MLB player props on Thursday.\u00a0<\/p>\n
When it comes to\u00a0MLB betting<\/a>, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports\u00a0betting<\/a>\u00a0sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of the\u00a0best sportsbook promos<\/a>\u00a0like the latest\u00a0Fanatics Sportsbook promo code<\/a>, where new users can\u00a0get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash<\/a>:<\/p>\n The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 19 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 27-22 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 53 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at\u00a0sportsbooks<\/a>\u00a0and on\u00a0betting sites<\/a>\u00a0could have seen strong returns.\u00a0<\/p>\n Best Thursday MLB player prop picks:<\/p>\n Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, over 0.5 stolen bases (+330)<\/p>\n Robert hit his 12th homer of the season on Tuesday and then stole his 30th base of the season on Wednesday in this series, and he’s generally playing better in the second half of the season. Since the MLB All-Star break, Robert is hitting .383 and has stolen seven bases in 13 games. Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has a decent move and generally holds runners solidly, but baserunners are 43 of 52 on stolen base attempts in his career.\u00a0<\/p>\n Eury Perez, Marlins, under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)<\/p>\n Perez has a 2.70 ERA on the season, but the Marlins have been cautious with their young ace after he underwent Tommy John surgery last April. He’s only pitched 50 innings in 10 starts, and he’s only lasted six innings or longer in three of those outings. He’s had five strikeouts or fewer in two of his last three starts, and the model sees some value to the under here. This prop is available at DraftKings, and with the updated DraftKings promo code<\/a>, new users can\u00a0get $200 in bonus bets instantly as well as over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket<\/a>:\u00a0<\/p>\n Kyle Stowers, Marlins, over 0.5 home runs (+400)<\/p>\n Stowers only had six home runs in 313 career big league at-bats entering this season but he’s been a revelation in 2025. He’s belted 25 homers this season and has a .935 OPS. The batted-ball data bears that success out too, as he’s 98th percentile among MLB hitters in barrel rate (18.9%), 96th percentile in expected slugging (.554), 91st percentile in hard-hit contact rate (52.0%) and 90th percentile in bat speed (75.0 mph). This prop is available at BetMGM, and the latest BetMGM promo code<\/a> gets new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses<\/a>:<\/p>\n MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet<\/p>\n The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at\u00a0our blog<\/a>, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.\u00a0<\/p>\n The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for YES HR\/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.\u00a0<\/p>\n Yesterday<\/a>, we successfully\u00a0spotlighted Tyler Soderstrom\u00a0for getting priced at +575 to hit a HR which was 100+ ML units higher than he was getting before his 9 game HR-less streak. Well he rewarded us with an early HR last night. I don’t know if you’d want to press your luck but the markets now definitely do not see him going yard again with his best priced Yes HR line up to +600 on Fanatics.\u00a0<\/p>\n It is a light slate on Thursday with just 4 games so there are only 6 HR hitters and 4 SB lines under +400. The biggest name on the mound is Paul Skenes but our projection of 6.8 Ks is right in line with\u00a0u7.5 at -130 on DraftKings.\u00a0Eury Perez is interesting. DraftKings is offering under 5.5 at +100. He has gone over 5.5 in his last 3 road games, but overall he has averaged just 4.7 Ks on the road (vs 5.8 at home).\u00a0<\/p>\n RANKHRSBK8\/7PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINEPLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINESTARTER | K PROJ1Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.316 | +216Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.342 | +192Paul Skenes (PIT) | 6.762Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.265 | +277Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.32 | +212Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.123Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.256 | +291Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.261 | +283Jacob Lopez (ATH) | 5.744Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.241 | +315Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.226 | +342Eury Perez (MIA) | 5.335Eugenio Suarez (SEA) | 0.224 | +346CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.195 | +413Brady Singer (CIN) | 5.176Shea Langeliers (ATH) | 0.22 | +355Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.187 | +435Shane Smith (CHW) | 4.897Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.196 | +410Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.15 | +567Carlos Carrasco (ATL) | 4.428James Wood (WAS) | 0.188 | +432Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.147 | +580Mitchell Parker (WAS) | 4.329Lawrence Butler (ATH) | 0.168 | +495Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.145 | +590 You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Thursday. Now,\u00a0get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine<\/a>.<\/p>\n
10Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.165 | +506Lawrence Butler (ATH) | 0.142 | +604
11Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.155 | +545Dane Myers (MIA) | 0.14 | +614
12Agustin Ramirez (MIA) | 0.153 | +554Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.132 | +658
13Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.153 | +554Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.12 | +733
14Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.151 | +562Josh Naylor (SEA) | 0.116 | +762
15Josh Naylor (SEA) | 0.15 | +567James Wood (WAS) | 0.114 | +777
16Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.148 | +576Jake Fraley (CIN) | 0.114 | +777
17Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.148 | +576Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.113 | +785
18Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.142 | +604Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.111 | +801
19Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.137 | +630Jakob Marsee (MIA) | 0.109 | +817
20JJ Bleday (ATH) | 0.133 | +652Chase Meidroth (CHW) | 0.101 | +890
More MLB picks for Thursday<\/p>\n