Market update: At 9:31 a.m. \u2060ET, \u200bthe S&P\/TSX \u2060composite index \u200cwas down 1.23 per cent \u200bat 32676.84 points.In New York, the \u200cDow \u200bJones \u200cIndustrial \u200bAverage fell 130.3 \u2060points, or 0.27 per cent, to 47,371.28. The S&P 500 fell 40.2 points, or \u20600.60 per cent, to 6,699.8, while \u2060the \u200bNasdaq Composite dropped 203.6 \u2060points, or 0.91 per cent, \u200cto 22,184.047 at the \u200bopening bell.Oil prices surged \u200cto more than $119 a barrel on Monday, hitting levels not seen since mid-2022, as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruption gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Brent crude futures were up US$8.77, or 9.46 per cent, at US$101.46 per barrel, \u200bwhile U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up US$7.92, or 8.71 per cent, at US$98.82.Spot gold was down 1.5 per cent at US$5,092.89 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 1.1 per cent to US$5,101.00.03\/09\/26 09:47Xenon stock soars as B.C. drug developer reports strong results for epilepsy treatment<\/p>\n
– Sean Silcoff<\/p>\n
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XENE-Q<\/a>) generated positive results from a critical late-stage human trial for its epilepsy treatment and will apply later this year to market its drug in the U.S., the B.C. drug developer said Monday.<\/p>\n The stock was up more than 44 per cent in early trading on the Nasdaq.<\/p>\n The company said patients taking a 25 mg dose of its drug, called azetukalner, over a 12 week trial, saw a 53.2-per-cent reduction in seizures, which was 42.7 percentage points better than those on a placebo. Nearly 55 per cent of patients on the pill experienced a reduction in seizure activity of more than half. The numbers improved on Xenon\u2019s last human trial, reported in 2021, which saw patient seizures on the 25 mg pill drop by 52.8 per cent over an eight-week span, which was 34.6 percentage points more than people taking a placebo. Of those, 54.5 per cent had at least a 50-per-cent reduction in monthly seizure frequency.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are very happy to announce these data for azetukalner, which exceeded expectations and, to our knowledge, show the highest placebo-adjusted efficacy ever observed in a pivotal epilepsy study,\u201d Ian Mortimer, Xenon\u2019s chief executive officer, said in a release.<\/p>\n Read more: Here<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 09:44Don\u2019t panic, urges David Rosenberg, who suggests similar oil price spikes of the past don\u2019t last long<\/p>\n – Darcy Keith<\/p>\n Economist David Rosenberg is pleading with his clients this morning not to panic. He points out that similar event-driving oil price moves of the past never last all that long. That\u2019s because such a run up in the oil price should quickly erode demand. And Mr. Rosenberg is also of the belief that this conflict won\u2019t be a prolonged one.<\/p>\n From his Breakfast with Dave newsletter: <\/p>\n \u201cThis is a huge shock, to be sure, but it\u2019s not as if it is unprecedented. There was another war, from August 1990 under Operation Desert Shield to what culminated in Operation Desert Storm, which ended in February 1991, when WTI surged from $16 per barrel to $40 per barrel for a total increase of 150 per cent. That was over a six-month period, otherwise known as Iraq War I. If we replicate that move now with Iran, we would be talking about what everyone is now talking about, which is $140 per barrel. Yes, that is scary. But the likelihood is that the current situation will last weeks, not months.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cBut even if this conflict ends up getting measured in months, as was the case in 1990-1991, remember that what we ended up with back then was a mild recession, a 20-per-cent bear market in the S&P 500 (though valuations were less extreme at that time), and within a year, everyone pretty well forgot about it. Within three months after Operation Desert Storm ended, the oil price was back to $20 per barrel and then to $15 per barrel three years later. The inflation rate was just over 4.0 per cent before Iraq War I to 6.3 per cent at the peak \u2014 and then a year after the war ended, all the way down to 2.8 per cent. The Fed resumed cutting rates, and the Treasury market delivered splendid positive returns. While the war dominated the headlines for a while, past the winter of 1991, we moved on to other things (like the S&L crisis, the credit crunch, and the jobless recovery).\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cThat then brings me to the next point. There was one other time in history the oil price tested (even breached) $140 per barrel, and that was back in July 2008. From the January 2007 low of $52 per barrel to the peak, the move represented a near tripling in the oil price in a year-and-a half. The inflation rate soared from just over 2.0 per cent to 5.6 per cent at the oil price peak. A year later, WTI was back down to $60 per barrel, and inflation swung to negative 2.1 per cent. Imagine that \u2014 in a year, from $145 on oil to $60 and near-6-per-cent inflation to 2-per-cent deflation. Tell me if you remember still talking about an oil crisis and inflation in the summer of 2009.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cSo, keep your powder dry, your wits about you. \u2026 These event-driven oil price spikes never last and merely end up sowing the seeds for their own demise due to the demand destruction that lies in their wake.\u201d<\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 09:35North American stock indexes open lower as soaring crude prices fan inflation worries<\/p>\n North America\u2019s main \u200cindexes opened lower on Monday, \u2060as \u200bsoaring oil prices heightened inflation worries, with \u200bthe \u200cMiddle East conflict entering its tenth day.<\/p>\n \u200bCanada\u2019s main \u200cstock index was led by declines in \u200bthe \u200cmaterials and consumer discretionary sectors, \u200cas \u200brisk sentiment \u200ctook \u200ba hit.<\/p>\n At 9:31 a.m. \u2060ET, \u200bthe S&P\/TSX \u2060composite index \u200cwas down 1.23 per cent \u200bat 32676.84 points.<\/p>\n The \u200cDow \u200bJones \u200cIndustrial \u200bAverage fell 130.3 \u2060points, or 0.27 per cent, to 47,371.28. The S&P 500 fell 40.2 points, or \u20600.60 per cent, to 6,699.8, while \u2060the \u200bNasdaq Composite dropped 203.6 \u2060points, or 0.91 per cent, \u200cto 22,184.047 at the \u200bopening bell.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 09:22Markets now fully pricing in a BoC rate hike later this year on oil-fueled inflation jitters<\/p>\n – Darcy Keith<\/p>\n Money markets are now fully pricing in a quarter-point rate hike by the Bank of Canada by October of this year. <\/p>\n Several central banks across the globe are coming under pressure to lift interest rates amid fears the spiking price of crude will soon filter into higher energy prices for consumers, leading to another breakout of inflation. Hiking rates is the major weapon at their disposal to try to beat down inflation, even though it risks dragging down overall economic growth rates.<\/p>\n Implied rate probabilities in overnight index swap markets indicate the Bank of Canada will likely keep rates on hold for the next two meetings, on March 18 and April 29. But odds go to up a near 100 per cent probability of a rate hike by the October 28 meeting. <\/p>\n The Bank of Canada\u2019s current overnight rate is 2.25 per cent. While the bank only moves the overnight rate in quarter-point increments, markets price in a much less rigid rate when setting bets on future policy rates. Right now, traders are positioned for an overnight rate of 2.55 per cent at the bank\u2019s last central policy meeting on Dec. 9. <\/p>\n These market bets for rate moves are always changing as new developments unfold. A quick resolution to the Middle East conflict could turnaround these rate probabilities very quickly.<\/p>\n But the latest thinking in money markets is the bank will be forced to tighten policy later this year, marking a dramatic turnaround from prior to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, when markets were pricing in odds the next move in the overnight rate will be lower. <\/p>\n Reflecting all this, U.S. and Canadian bond yields are higher again today, in the 5 to 7 basis points range across the curve. The Canada 5-year yield, closely watched for its influence on fixed mortgage rates, is at the highest level of this year, at just above 3 per cent. It likely won\u2019t be long before there\u2019s upward pressure on fixed mortgage pricing. <\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 08:43The most oversold and overbought stocks on the TSX<\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n The S&P\/TSX Composite dropped 3.6 per cent for the trading week ending with Friday\u2019s close and is now 5.0 per cent higher for 2026, including dividends. The benchmark\u2019s Relative Strength Index<\/a> (RSI) of 46 is very close to the midpoint of the oversold buy signal of 30 and the overbought, technically vulnerable sell signal of 70. <\/p>\n There are six companies with attractive RSIs below the 30 buy signal. Allied Properties REIT is the most oversold company followed by Pet Valu Holdings Ltd., Gildan Activewear Inc., BRP Inc., Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp. and IA Financial Corp Inc. <\/p>\n The list of overbought TSX stocks is a lot smaller this week at seven members. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is unsurprisingly the most overbought stock in the index on higher energy prices. Atco Ltd. is next then Paramount Resources Ltd., Peyto Explorations and Development Corp., Quebecor Inc., Hydro One Ltd. and Dye and Durham Ltd. <\/p>\n Read the full report: Here<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 07:54Iran conflict has potential silver lining for Canadian economy: BMO rates and macro strategist <\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n BMO Canadian rates and macro strategist Benjamin Reitzes sees European leaders taking notice on unreliable commodity sources,<\/p>\n \u201cCanadian yields followed the global move higher. Stepping back from judgement, the conflict provides a unique opportunity for the Canadian economy. Europe\u2019s reliance on energy imports has been laid bare for the second time in four years. First it was Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, and now war with Iran. On both occasions, Europe has had to find alternative sources of energy and deal with higher prices \u2026 Canada has one of the largest crude oil reserves in the world along with sizeable natural gas reserves. The challenge is getting those energy products out of the country. The pipeline network to the U.S. is sizeable and perhaps growing (a partial rehash of Keystone XL?), but Canada lacks the ability to send oil & gas offshore, with only one major LNG export plant and one major pipeline to the west coast. The Government of Canada was already focused on diversifying the country\u2019s trade partners, and the war in Iran only reinforces that there are surely willing partners. The question is how quickly Canada can push forward with new energy export infrastructure. These are multi-year projects, but it\u2019s an opportune time to get other countries to sign up. Beyond energy, the country has plenty of other raw materials the world wants.\u201d <\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 07:48Iran war fuels central bank rate hike bets on inflation fears<\/p>\n Central \u200cbanks across Europe came under market pressure on Monday to lift interest rates as the war in Iran drove up energy costs and revived the specter of another inflation wave.<\/p>\n Money markets ramped up bets on rate increases by the European Central Bank, the \u2060Swiss National \u200bBank and Sweden\u2019s Riksbank before year-end, with the Bank of England seen following suit in 2027.<\/p>\n Asian central banks were also seen shelving plans to cut or even consider hikes.<\/p>\n The unusually sharp repricing came as major oil producers cut supply and fears grew of prolonged shipping disruptions, pushing crude above US$119 a barrel \u2014 its highest level since mid-2022.<\/p>\n For many policymakers, \u200bthe surge risked reopening an old wound. Most European central banks were \u200clate to raise rates four years ago when Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine unleashed an energy shock that quickly spilled over into broader consumer prices.<\/p>\n \u201cThat\u2019s a trauma that is very much alive among some central bankers, so we cannot ignore that,\u201d said Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. \u201cThey will be worried about another supply shock with the potential … to have spillovers to \u200cthe rest \u200bof the supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n The ECB was \u200cseen raising rates once by June or July and most likely again by December, money-markets data showed. The Riksbank was \u200bseen hiking once or twice in the autumn.<\/p>\n The SNB was \u2060expected to move in October and once more in 2027 when the BoE was also seen \u2060joining the tightening cycle.<\/p>\n All four banks next meet on March 18 and 19, with no immediate action expected.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 07:28AI expected to account for 40% of S&P 500 profit growth in 2026, says Goldman Sachs <\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Ben Snider, new chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, quantified the effects of oil and AI on 2026 earnings growth,<\/p>\n \u201cThe direct impact of modestly higher oil prices on S&P 500 earnings should be relatively muted, but a prolonged period of severe disruption or uncertainty would pose a more meaningful downside risk to our forecasts \u2026 The bigger risk to earnings is a sustained period of severe oil disruption that weighs on economic growth. In our top-down EPS model, every 1 pp change in real US GDP growth corresponds to a 3-4-per-cent change in S&P 500 EPS. A sustained increase in uncertainty would also threaten equity valuations, corporate confidence, and the nascent rebound in industrial activity \u2026 We estimate that AI investments and AI cloud services accounted for roughly 25 per cent of S&P 500 EPS growth in 2025 and will account for roughly 40 per cent of growth in 2026. The bulk of the AI-related earnings are attributable to the revenue beneficiaries of the AI capex investment boom, the majority of which has accrued to semiconductor companies. However, this S&P 500 EPS tailwind is offset slightly by the increased hyperscaler depreciation expense associated with this capex. While AI cloud services revenues are small relative to AI capex, these revenues are doubling annually and will account for roughly 5 per cent of S&P 500 EPS growth this year\u201d <\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 07:20RBC analyst provides detailed outlook for domestic bank stocks <\/p>\n – Scott Barlow<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Toronto Dominion Centre signage is pictured in the financial district in Toronto, Friday, Sept. 8, 2023.Andrew Lahodynskyj\/The Canadian Press<\/p>\n RBC Capital Markets bank analyst Darko Mihelic detailed his outlook for the major domestic banks,<\/p>\n \u201cOur thesis for the Canadian banks we cover revolves around the following key elements: 1) Improved loan growth though we expect it to continue to decelerate shorter term. Excluding NA\u2019s acquisition of CWB, total Canadian P&C loans increased 5 per cent year-over-year on average in Q1\/26, a deceleration from 7-per-cent year-over-year growth a year ago. Commercial loans grew 5 per cent year-over-year (ex-CWB) in the quarter versus 12-per-cent year-over-year growth one year ago, decelerating the most among loan categories as commercial borrowers remain on the sidelines in light of current economic and tariff uncertainties. We model muted all-bank loan growth of 2 per cent \u2026 In the absence of meaningful loan growth in the near term, bank revenues are supported by capital markets businesses which performed well in 2025 and Q1\/26 \u2026 Expense control will also be in focus in an environment of slower revenue growth, in our view \u2026 There was mild deterioration in Canadian retail credit quality in Q1\/26 as seen in the median 90+ day Canadian retail delinquency rates (up 5 bps quarter-over-quarter and 9 bps year-over-year), particularly in credit cards (up 11 bps quarter-over-quarter and 13 bps year-over-year) and residential mortgages (up 4 bps quarter-over-quarter and 12 bps year-over-year), but some banks have indicated that early stage delinquencies have seen improvements \u2026 The large Canadian banks under our coverage have re-rated since our last conference. They are trading at a median P\/B of 1.97 times, above the historical average of 1.69 times. Based on our 2026 core earnings estimates, the large Canadian banks we cover are trading at a median P\/E of 13.6 times, above the historical average of 10.6 times and the large Canadian lifeco median of 11.1 times. While we believe valuations are already at elevated levels for our covered Canadian banks, further upside is possible on a stronger North American economy and further efficiency gains, in our view \u2026 A recent technical paper from the Canadian bank regulator OSFI concluded that Canadian banks are capitalized appropriately relative to other international banking peers\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Mihelic has \u201coutperform\u201d ratings on Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T<\/a>) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T<\/a>). <\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 06:44Short sales on the TSX: What bearish investors are betting against<\/p>\n – Larry MacDonald<\/p>\n Short selling occurs when shares in a company are borrowed and sold on the expectation they can be bought back at a lower price and returned to the owner. Academic studies have found that there is a correlation, on average, between short positions and underperformance for a stock.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In his monthly report, Larry looks at: <\/p>\n Top short positions in Canadian companiesTop increases in short positionsStocks most at risk for short squeezesMost shorted ETFsShould we vilify or praise short sellers?<\/p>\n Read more: Here<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 06:44Monday\u2019s analyst upgrades and downgrades <\/p>\n – David Leeder<\/p>\n National Bank Financial analyst Baltej Sidhu sees Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.\u2019s (AQN-N<\/a>, AQN-T<\/a>) as \u201ca turnaround story\u201d with its 2025 results reflecting \u201cexecution of its self-help plan.\u201d<\/p>\n However, its \u201cevident\u201d operational progress is being overshadowed by its guidance, weighing on investor sentiment.<\/p>\n On Friday, the Oakville, Ont.-based company\u2019s TSX-listed shares dropped 11.6 per cent after it reduced its fiscal 2027 earnings per share guidance by 4 US cents to 44 US cents driven primarily by higher tax assumptions. That came despite fourth-quarter 2025 EPS of 34 cents, which came in above the high end of guidance of 30-32 cents.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile some pullback is understandable, the underlying fundamentals and earnings trajectory continue to improve, with upcoming rate case outcomes expected to provide incremental support and reinforce forward visibility,\u201d said Mr. Sidhu.<\/p>\n Read more: Here<\/a><\/p>\n Other companies mentioned include: Aecon; AltaGas; Badger Infrastructure; Canadian Natural Resources; Canfor; Canfor Pulp; Doman Building Materials; Fuerte Metals; Headwater Exploration; Tourmaline; Vermilion<\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 06:30Gold falls on inflation concerns and stronger U.S. dollar; Mideast tensions dim rate cut bets <\/p>\n Gold fell on Monday as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran fueled \u2060inflation concerns, \u200bwhich dimmed near-term U.S. interest rate cut prospects and boosted the dollar.<\/p>\n Spot gold was down 1.2 per cent at US$5,109.39 per ounce as of 6:12 a.m. ET, after falling more than 2 per cent earlier. U.S. \u200bgold futures for April delivery lost 0.8 per cent \u200cto US$5,118.20.<\/p>\n \u201cHistorically, it is not uncommon to see gold falling as first reaction when financial markets show stress signs as gold is a highly liquid asset,\u201d said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.<\/p>\n Stock markets in Asia nosedived \u200cas the \u200binflationary jolt from surging \u200coil prices threatened to raise living costs and interest rates \u200bacross the globe, while investors desperate for liquidity \u2060fled to the U.S. dollar, propelling it to \u2060a more than three-month high.<\/p>\n The dollar index was up near three-month highs. \u200bA stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies.<\/p>\n – Reuters<\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 05:58G7 countries to discuss tapping strategic oil reserves as prices smash through USUS$100 a barrel<\/p>\n – Eric Reguly <\/p>\n The Group of Seven industrialized countries are to discuss plans to release oil from strategic reserves as the price smashed through US$100 a barrel and reached almost US$120 at one point in early European trading on Monday.<\/p>\n In London, the Brent futures price for May contracts rose almost 26 per cent to US$116.38. If they remain above US$112.17, they will mark the biggest single-day climb since the futures began trading in 1988.<\/p>\n The prospect of a joint release of oil reserves pushed down Brent spot prices from their Monday peak of US$119.50. But in midmorning London trading, Brent was still up 13 per cent over Friday\u2019s close, at US$105. Oil was under USUS$60 in December.<\/p>\n Natural gas prices climbed even faster. They were up 30 per cent because the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) travels by ship, remained all but closed. The energy shock \u2013 and the prospect of slowing economies \u2013 hit the markets again, with the FTSE-100 down 1.3 per cent and Germany\u2019s DAX off by 2 per cent in morning trading.<\/p>\n Read more: Here<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 05:58South Korea to impose first fuel cap in 30 years as Iran war sends cost of oil soaring <\/p>\n – James Griffiths <\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n A man fills up his car at a gas station in Seoul, South Korea, March 9.Kim Hong-Ji\/Reuters<\/p>\n South Korea will cap fuel prices for the first time in three decades, the government announced Monday, as economies across Asia grapple with the spiking cost of oil as a result of the widening conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n Oil prices soared to more than US$119 per barrel on Monday, an increase of more than 30 per cent since the U.S. and Israel<\/a> began bombing Iran<\/a> on Feb. 28. That assault provoked all-out retaliatory attacks from Tehran against U.S. bases and interests in countries across the Gulf, and threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a huge portion of oil and liquid natural gas (LNG) bound for Asian markets travels on a daily basis.<\/p>\n \u201cAs the crisis in the Middle East deepens, uncertainty in the domestic and global economic environment is expanding significantly, posing a considerable burden on the Korean economy relying heavily on global trade and energy imports from the Middle East,\u201d said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. \u201cAs it is difficult to predict how the situation will unfold, the government must prepare pre-emptive response measures with a sense of urgency, keeping even the worst-case scenario in mind.\u201d<\/p>\n A fuel price cap is expected to be implemented as soon as this week, while the Bank of Korea is also preparing market-stabilization measures to respond to rising volatility.<\/p>\n Read more: Here<\/a><\/p>\n 03\/09\/26 05:24Oil prices surge to highest since 2022 at over US$119 a barrel on Middle East war<\/p>\n Oil prices surged over US$119 a barrel, hitting levels not seen since \u2060mid-2022, on \u200bMonday as some major producers cut supplies and fears of prolonged shipping disruptions gripped the market due to the expanding U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.<\/p>\n Brent crude futures were up US$13.02, or 14 per cent, at US$105.71 per barrel at 5:17 a.m. ET, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up US$12.16, or 13 per cent, at US$103.06.<\/p>\n