FUNDAMENTAL
\nOVERVIEW<\/p>\n
Oil prices jumped above 100$ The momentum picked up Traders are now laser What a de-escalation could look like though? It could be Trump saying that the nuclear threat is over or For now, they are trying to CRUDE OIL WTI crude oil – daily<\/p>\n On the daily chart, we can CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL WTI crude oil – 4 hour<\/p>\n On the 4 hour chart, there\u2019s CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL crude oil – 1 hour<\/p>\n On the 1 hour chart, we don\u2019t UPCOMING CATALYSTS<\/p>\n
\nper barrel today after Israel bombed 30 Iranian fuel depots<\/a> on Saturday and the market feared
\nthat the conflict could extend beyond what was previously expected. <\/p>\n
\nalready on Friday after Qatar\u2019s
\nEnergy Minister warned that prices could surge to 150$<\/a> on a prolonged war. The
\npath of least resistance remains to the upside amid the war and the virtually closed
\nStrait of Hormuz. <\/p>\n
\nfocused on de-escalation as that would trigger a massive selloff in oil prices.
\nTrump said on Truth Social<\/a> today that oil prices will
\ndrop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over. Reading between the lines, it looks like we are reaching Trump’s pain threshold given the triple digit oil prices and weakening stock markets.<\/p>\n
\nthat they reached all their goals in their military operation. That would mark
\nthe start of de-escalation, and the market will react to it quickly. <\/p>\n
\nstop the momentum and stabilise prices with short-term actions like the release
\nof emergency oil reserves. In fact, the news of G7
\ncountries mulling coordination with IEA to release emergency oil reserves<\/a> led
\nto a quick drop in oil this morning which is now trading near the opening gap. <\/p>\n
\nTECHNICAL ANALYSIS \u2013 DAILY TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
\nsee that crude oil opened higher today and extended the gains into the 119.00
\nhandle before pulling back. We can expect the buyers to step in around the
\n95.00 area with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The
\nsellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into
\nthe 80.00 region. <\/p>\n
\nANALYSIS \u2013 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
\nnot much we can add as the buyers will look for a bounced around the 95.00
\nsupport zone, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into
\nthe minor upward trendline around the 82.00 level.<\/p>\n
\nANALYSIS \u2013 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME<\/p>\n
\nhave other clear levels where to lean on except the 95.00 support zone and the 4-hour
\ntrendline. For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside until we
\nget a de-escalation. The red lines define the average daily range<\/a> for today.<\/p>\n