{"id":527523,"date":"2026-03-10T20:16:08","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:16:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/527523\/"},"modified":"2026-03-10T20:16:08","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T20:16:08","slug":"oil-shock-stirs-inflation-fears-but-bank-of-canada-seen-staying-put","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/527523\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil shock stirs inflation fears but Bank of Canada seen staying put"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Outside gasoline, \u201coil prices must remain elevated for months rather than days or weeks to cascade through supply chains and influence business pricing decisions,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/canadian-analysis\/featured-analysis\/insights\/crude-calculations-assessing-canadas-vulnerability-to-oil-prices-2\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">RBC said<\/a> \u2013 a key reason they expect\u00a0only a modest, delayed inflation bump.<\/p>\n<p>Their scenario work showed that if West Texas Intermediate held at about US$100 per barrel, headline CPI could peak \u201caround 3% in Canada, and 3.5% in the U.S. this year,\u201d roughly three\u2011quarters of a percentage point above RBC\u2019s pre\u2011conflict Canadian forecast.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Why a higher oil bill may not move BoC<\/p>\n<p>History also matters. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points in 2015 when collapsing prices reflected a structural surge in US\u00a0shale output. Today\u2019s shock, by contrast, came from supply disruptions that markets still see\u00a0as temporary \u2013 and from a North American energy system in which US production has\u00a0climbed from 5.4 million barrels a day in 2004 to about 13.5 million in 2025, sharply reducing vulnerability to oil spikes.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, deputy governor Sharon Kozicki underlined that the Bank\u2019s response to supply shocks \u201cdepend\u00a0crucially on their size and duration,\u201d with short\u2011lived moves typically inviting a \u201clook\u2011through\u201d approach.<\/p>\n<p>RBC Economics echoes\u00a0that stance, reiterating its call that the overnight rate \u2013 already at 2.25% after a long tightening\u2011then\u2011easing cycle \u2013 would likely stay there through the end of 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Outside gasoline, \u201coil prices must remain elevated for months rather than days or weeks to cascade through supply&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":527524,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[49,48,148009,1259,44,9891],"class_list":["post-527523","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-canada","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-canada-inflation","tag-middle-east","tag-news","tag-oil-prices"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527523","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=527523"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527523\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/527524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=527523"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=527523"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=527523"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}