{"id":53127,"date":"2025-08-07T23:10:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-07T23:10:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/53127\/"},"modified":"2025-08-07T23:10:13","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T23:10:13","slug":"winter-inflation-warning-puts-reevess-economic-growth-plan-at-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/53127\/","title":{"rendered":"Winter inflation warning puts Reeves\u2019s economic growth plan at risk"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Your support helps us to tell the story<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cKWiEj\">From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it&#8217;s investigating the financials of Elon Musk&#8217;s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, &#8216;The A Word&#8217;, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cKWiEj\">At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.<\/p>\n<p class=\"sc-1uza6dc-0 cKWiEj\">The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.<\/p>\n<p>Your support makes all the difference.Read more<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/rachel-reeves\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rachel Reeves has been given an inflation warning by the Bank of England, as it cut interest rates to their lowest level in two years but forecast months of sharp price rises driven by higher food prices.<\/p>\n<p>Days after the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/chancellor\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">chancellor<\/a> was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/uk\/politics\/rachel-reeves-taxes-spending-cuts-budget-b2802222.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">warned of a \u00a350bn black hole in the government\u2019s finances<\/a>, the Bank said Ms Reeves\u2019s national insurance hike and the rise in the minimum wage were helping to push up the cost of the supermarket shop. <\/p>\n<p>There was relief for borrowers, as the interest rate was cut to 4 per cent. <\/p>\n<p>But the Bank said headline inflation would accelerate to 4 per cent by September, while inflation on food is set to hit 5.5 per cent between now and Christmas \u2013 putting a squeeze on household budgets.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/60b43eae12ab36690af19d3fa9a822c8Y29udGVudHNlYXJjaGFwaSwxNzUyNjQ5NzM2-2.80995116.jpg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Chancellor Rachel Reeves has welcomed the rate cut\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/><\/p>\n<p>open image in gallery<\/p>\n<p>Chancellor Rachel Reeves has welcomed the rate cut (PA)<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the Bank\u2019s governor, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/topic\/andrew-bailey\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Andrew Bailey<\/a>, signalled that interest rates would fall more slowly in coming months, saying they were \u201cstill on a downward path\u201d but that changes would have to be \u201cmade gradually and carefully\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Amid fears that the rate cut could stoke inflation, the Bank\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee was split and was forced to take a second vote for the first time in its history in order to break the deadlock.<\/p>\n<p>The forecasts pile more pressure on the chancellor, less than 24 hours after Sir Keir Starmer pledged that this autumn\u2019s Budget will make sure \u201cpeople feel better off\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>Ms Reeves welcomed the rate cut, saying it would help to \u201cbring down the cost of mortgages and loans for families and businesses\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>But she also left the door open to tax hikes in the Budget, after leading economists said she may have to raise levies, cut public spending, or tear up her fiscal rules in order to fill a multibillion-pound black hole.<\/p>\n<p>She also came under pressure from former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown, who suggested increasing gambling taxes to fund the abolition of the two-child benefit cap and taking defence spending out of her borrowing rules to free up economic \u201cheadroom\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>But the Tories said the national insurance rise coupled with \u201creckless borrowing\u201d had \u201cpushed inflation well above target\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Starmer-defends-Palestine-recognition-plan-zl6lgmfi.jpeg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Keir Starmer has said that the Budget in October will \u2018focus very much on living standards\u2019\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/><\/p>\n<p>open image in gallery<\/p>\n<p>Keir Starmer has said that the Budget in October will \u2018focus very much on living standards\u2019 (PA)<\/p>\n<p> Alongside the announcement of a cut in interest rates, the Bank of England said the chancellor\u2019s \u00a325bn national insurance raid had pushed up food prices. Higher wage costs are contributing to food inflation, partly because of an increase in the minimum wage and the impact of the increase in national insurance contributions (NICs).<\/p>\n<p>A \u201crelatively high proportion of staff\u201d in food manufacturing and retail are paid the national living wage, or an amount close to it, according to the Bank\u2019s latest monetary policy report. The national living wage increased by 6.7 per cent in April.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cFurthermore, overall labour costs of supermarkets are likely to have been disproportionately affected by the lower threshold at which employers start paying NICs, in part because a relatively high proportion of supermarket staff is employed part-time,\u201d the report added.<\/p>\n<p>Most of the wage costs, along with a proportion of the cost of higher NICs, have been passed on to consumers, putting up prices by around 1 to 2 per cent, with shoppers facing further hikes later this year.<\/p>\n<p>The controversial decision to raise NICs has also \u201cweighed on growth\u201d, according to businesses, the report said.<\/p>\n<p>Business chiefs also expressed concern to the Bank about other government policies, including deputy prime minister Angela Rayner\u2019s Employment Rights Bill.<\/p>\n<p>Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium (BRC), said: \u201cGovernment policy will add \u00a37bn to retailer costs this year, from higher employment costs to the introduction of a new packaging tax. Food prices have already been climbing steadily, and the BRC has warned this is only the beginning.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf the autumn Budget once again lands on the shoulders of retailers, then it will only serve to fan the flames of food inflation, with poorer families being hit the hardest by the Treasury\u2019s decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Bank-of-England-financial-stability-report-zfhhildg.jpeg\"  loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, has signalled that interest rates will fall more slowly in the coming months\" class=\"sc-1mc30lb-0 ggpMaE inline-gallery-btn\"\/><\/p>\n<p>open image in gallery<\/p>\n<p>Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, has signalled that interest rates will fall more slowly in the coming months (PA)<\/p>\n<p>James Smith, of the Resolution Foundation economic think tank, said: \u201cThere was bad news for the chancellor from the Bank of England today as its forecasts remain more pessimistic on growth than [those of] the Office for Budget Responsibility, suggesting bad news is coming at the autumn Budget.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBank rate is now 4 per cent \u2013 its lowest level since March 2023. While this will be broadly welcomed by mortgagors, around 700,000 families will still see repayments rise as they come off five-year fixed-rate deals.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere was also bad news from the Bank of England for families struggling with the cost of living: inflation is set to be higher than previously expected, with food inflation rising further in the coming months, and real wage growth set to hit a brick wall this year.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53128,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[45,49,48,46],"class_list":["post-53127","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-business","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53127","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53127"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53127\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53127"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53127"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53127"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}