{"id":532450,"date":"2026-03-12T23:31:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T23:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/532450\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T23:31:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T23:31:11","slug":"canadian-building-intentions-surge-mostly-government-spending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/532450\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadian Building Intentions Surge, Mostly Government Spending"},"content":{"rendered":"

Canadian headline building intentions are still coming in strong, but details are less flattering. Statistics Canada (StatCan)<\/a> data show building permit values climbed in January, but remain weaker than pre-2023 levels once inflation-adjusted. A non-residential surge was behind most of the improvement, but it was taxpayer-funded, cementing Canada\u2019s dependence on borrowed growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Canadian Building Permits Masked By Inflation\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Canadian building permits: Total value, nominal (current) and inflation-adjusted (constant, 2023).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Building permit values climbed 4.8% to $13.3 billion in January, one of the highest levels on record in nominal terms. Only twice since 2020 have we seen higher numbers, but most of that growth is inflation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In StatCan\u2019s constant 2023 dollars, permits climbed 4.3% to $12.3 billion, up 0.8% from last year. This is weaker than pre-2023 levels, back when all that \u201cred tape\u201d supposedly kept builders back. And inflation isn\u2019t even the worst part of this report.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Canadian Builders Shift To Single-Family Homes, Condo Glut Weighs<\/p>\n

Residential building permits: total value by single- and multi-family segments, current dollars.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Residential building intentions are improving, but unevenly. Overall, permit values climbed 1.8% to $8.0 billion in January, but fell 9.4% from last year. Inflation-adjusted, the picture looks even weaker.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The real story is the condo oversupply. Single-family permit values climbed 8.9% to $2.71 billion in January, while multi-family permit values fell 1.5% to $5.3 billion. Developers are shifting to low-rise units to sidestep record unsold condo inventory.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Even with this pivot, the value of single-family building intentions remains half that of multi-family. The distortion has been largely due to incentives at various levels of government, from federally subsidized financing<\/a> to municipal vacancy tax exemptions<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Canadian Non-Residential Building Is Increasingly Government<\/p>\n

Non-residential building permits: total value for commercial, industrial, and institutional & government segments.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Source: StatCan; Better Dwelling.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Non-residential permits climbed 9.4% to $5.4 billion in January, 34% higher than last year. This is where growth is happening, but composition matters.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Commercial permits fell 5.5% (-$128.6 million) to $2.2 billion, the lowest since June 2025. Ontario alone accounted for the national decline, dropping by $186 million.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Industrial surged 44.6% to $1.2 billion. StatCan notes the gain came from state-backed transportation terminals in Ontario and Quebec. Public transit stations, not private investment.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Institutional permits rose 13% to $2 billion, near record highs. A single project in Toronto represented over $800 million. Most of you figured out the pattern, but let\u2019s spell it out since a 288% spike in coffee prices has left many undercaffeinated\u2014it was government-funded, not market-driven.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The pattern is clear: Virtually all growth is taxpayer-funded. Public spending isn\u2019t inherently bad, but it becomes a problem when it\u2019s the only growth left. That problem grows even further when it supports a misallocation of capital<\/a>, residential or non-residential.<\/p>\n

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